Algeria Food & Drink Report

Published 12 February 2015

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Algeria Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We project real p rivate consumption growth of 5.0 % in 2015, down from an annualised rate of 5.5% in 2009-13. While favourable demographics and the state's continuing support to household incomes (through transfers, subsidies, and public sector jobs) will help to prop up consumer goods purchases, the dinar's depreciation and weaker consumer confidence present new headwinds. Consumer price inflation is set to pick up, putting pressure on disposable incomes. We f orecast inflation to average 4.0 % in annual terms in 2015, after a relatively low rate - by Algerian standards - of 2.9% over 2014.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption year-on-year (y-o-y) growth = +6.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +7.3%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales growth = +29.1% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +30.0%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

ECP Purchases 33% Share In PepsiCo Bottler Atlas Bottling : US-based Emerging Capital Partners (ECP) bought a 33% share in Algeria-based PepsiCo bottler Atlas Bottling Corporation (ABC) in March 2014. The transaction comes as part of ECP's USD80mn investment plan. ECP's growth equity, along with the debt from commercial banks, will be used in setting up a new production unit and in expanding bottling capacity. Also, ABC's management team will be provided technical assistance by ECP by supporting them in professionalising business functions including governance and compliance.

Carrefour Weighs Up Return To Algeria: It was reported widely in the trade press towards the end of 2014 that Carrefour will open its first hypermarket in Algeria in March 2015. The company had remained tight-lipped over reports that it was planning a return to Algeria, four years after exiting its joint venture in the country. This first hypermarket would represent a reported EUR10mn investment in the country and will operate as a joint venture, with Carrefour Tunisia holding a 30% stake and Asicom...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Fish
19
Table: Fish Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Oils & Fats
20
Table: Oils & Fats Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Table: Margarine Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
21
Processed Foods
22
Table: Uncooked Pasta Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Table: Prepared Pasta Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
23
Dairy
23
Table: Milk Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Table: Butter Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
25
Table: Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
26
Drink
27
Alcoholic Drinks
27
Table: Beer Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
28
Soft Drinks
29
Table: Soft Drinks Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
30
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
31
Table: Bottled Water Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
32
Hot Drinks
32
Mass Grocery Retail
34
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
35
Trade
36
Macroeconomic Forecast
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: Algeria - Economic Activity
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
45
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
49
Algeria Risk/Reward Rating
50
Market Overview
51
Food
51
Food Consumption
51
Food Production
51
Confectionery
52
Agriculture
53
Drink
54
Alcoholic Drinks
54
Soft Drinks
55
Hot Drinks
56
Mass Grocery Retail
57
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Food
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Drink
63
Key Industry Trends And Developments
63
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Key Industry Trends And Developments
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Food & Drink Sector
67
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
68
Company Profile
70
Heineken
70
Caf- Aoued
72
Global Industry Overview
73
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
82
Demographic Forecast
83
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
84
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
85
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
86
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
86
Glossary
87
Food & Drink
87
Mass Grocery Retail
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90
Sources
90
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
91
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
92
Table: Weighting
93

The Algeria Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Algeria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc