Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Algeria Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Algeria ' s short-term oil production will be supported by increased focus on conventional assets, but in the absence of deeper, market-oriented reforms foreign participation will remain low, limitin g the oil output over the long -term. Our outlook for the gas sector is also bearish, mostly due to slow progress in gas pricing reforms, which will curb upstream investment and lead to production declines toward the second half of our forecast period. More generally, the Algerian market oil and gas market will continue to suffer from unattractive fiscal and regulatory regime, ongoing security concerns, and the weakened commodity price environment.

Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,525.0 1,485.0 1,500.2 1,515.6 1,513.6 1,511.9 1,499.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 497.2 503.2 509.2 516.4 523.6 530.9 538.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 403.0 410.7 417.1 423.3 434.0 445.9 457.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 84.0 82.3 84.8 86.5 89.1 91.7 93.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 38.1 39.5 40.2 41.0 42.3 43.5 44.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Algeria's oil and gas reserves will continue to decline during 2016-2020. Oil reserves are forecast to contract by 33.7% to 8.0bn bbl in 2025, while gas reserves will see a reduction of 19.5%, falling to 3.6tcm over the same period. The country will shift the exploration focus away from shale and other frontier plays towards improving recovery from producing assets.

  • Sonetrach announced that Algeria's oil production is entering a new phase of growth. In 2016, the company expects to increase its gas production to 69mn tonnes, up from 67mn tonnes a year earlier. We hold our forecast that Algeria's oil production will increase marginally in 2016 and 2017, before declining at an average annual rate of 1.2% during 2018-2025.

  • Algeria will continue to lag its regional peers in terms of gas pricing reforms. Reforms will be insufficient to draw significant new foreign investment into the upstream gas sector over the coming years, contributing to secular decline in domestic output.

  • We hold our view that Algeria's refining capacity will remain stable at 650,800b/d until 2025. While the country's NOC is planning significant upgrades to the country's refining sector, we have kept the new capacity out of our forecast due to lack of details and progress in the new projects.

  • A number of structural factors, such as rapidly growing vehicle fleet, highly-subsidised fuel prices, booming construction industry or gradually expanding population, will drive continuous growth in Algeria's refined fuels consumption during the coming decade.

  • Despite short-term increases, we expect the country's gas exports to continue declining over the longer-term, with the net export volumes standing at a forecast 27.6bcm in 2025, down from 42.9bcm in 2015.

  • Declining domestic crude production and soft global oil prices will severely undercut Algeria's export volumes and revenues across our 10-year forecast period. The country's exports of refined products will be squeezed as well by the rapidly rising domestic consumption.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
11
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards
13
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
22
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
26
Refining
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025)
35
Gas Consumption
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Crude Oil
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
46
Refined Fuels
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
49
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
52
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
52
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
55
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
55
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index
58
Upstream Index
58
Downstream Index
58
Market Overview
60
Algeria Energy Market Overview
60
Regulatory Overview
60
Licensing Regime
60
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms
61
Fiscal Regime
61
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms
61
Licensing Rounds
62
Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round
62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
63
LNG Terminals
63
Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals
63
Oil Refineries
64
Table: Algeria Oil Refineries
64
Gas Pipelines
64
Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
66
Table: Key Upstream Players
66
Table: Key Downstream Players
67
Company Profile
68
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
68
Latest Updates
68
Regional Overview
71
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
71
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
80
Glossary
81
Table: Glossary Of Terms
81
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Source
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
87
Table: Weighting
88

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.