Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 June 2015

  • 140 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Algeria Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Given the heavy investment needed to offset rapid declines at its major maturing fields, we see Algeria as among those producers most vulnerable to the global fall in oil prices. Softer prices will combine with the country's weak above-ground environment to ward off prospective investors. Falling production combined with high consumption growth for both oil and gas will put a heavy strain on exports towards the back end of our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,314.3 1,371.8 1,385.5 1,398.6 1,411.8 1,397.7 1,371.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 492.3 497.2 503.2 509.2 516.4 523.6 530.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 367.1 381.4 398.6 416.5 435.3 452.7 470.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 81.5 84.0 85.5 84.3 85.7 88.9 90.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 39.0 40.5 42.5 44.5 46.5 48.7 51.1

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:

  • Algeria has substantial underexplored acreage. However, exploration will remain limited due to Sonatrach's strained financial position and a lack of foreign involvement in the sector. The country plans to launch a new licensing round in 2015, but we expect the response to be muted.

  • The long-term outlook on oil and gas production is heavily bearish. A spate of small to medium-sized projects will support mid-term production growth, but a lack of new projects scheduled onstream beyond 2018 will see decline rates outpacing output as early as 2019.

  • Oil and gas consumption will grow rapidly, as pervasive subsidies fuel inefficient consumption patterns.

  • The combination of rising consumption and falling production will severely undercut exports of both oil and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2019-2024)
9
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
10
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2019-2024)
18
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Algeria 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024)
32
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts
33
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude & Products (Algeria - 2013-2018)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude & Products (Algeria - 2019-2024)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
43
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
44
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
45
Established Producers On The Downturn
46
An Underwhelming Downstream
46
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index
49
Market Overview
51
Algeria Energy Market Overview
51
Overview/State Role
51
Licensing And Regulation
51
Licensing Rounds
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
LNG
53
Table: Algeria Operational LNG Export Terminals
53
Oil Refineries
54
Table: Algeria Operational Refineries
54
Gas Pipelines
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
59
Anadarko
66
Eni Algeria Production
69
BP
73
Total
76
Repsol
79
BHP Petroleum
83
Cepsa
85
Statoil
89
Other Summaries
92
Regional Overview
96
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
96
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
96
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
98
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
100
High-Risk Continent
102
Downstream Blues
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Oil Price Outlook
106
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
106
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
107
Appendix
114
Africa - Regional Appendix
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
121
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
122
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
123
Algeria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018)
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024)
124
Algeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024)
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024)
131
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018)
132
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024)
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Source
137
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
137
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
139
Table: Weighting
140

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc