Algeria Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Algeria Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The outlook on Algerian oil production is heavily bearish, due to rapid decline rates at mature producing fields and the small pipeline of projects under development. The outlook on gas is slightly more positive, although strong domestic consumption growth will continue to weigh on exports. Reversing longer-term production declines depends on pulling increased foreign investment into the sector , including recent announcements of plans to allow companies to directly invest in a limited number of fields . However, the prospects are clouded by an unattractive fiscal and regulatory regime , ongoing security concerns, and the weakened commodity price environment.

Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,374.7 1,330.1 1,340.7 1,351.3 1,344.4 1,337.6 1,319.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 84.0 82.3 83.5 85.2 87.8 90.4 91.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 41.3 42.7 43.6 44.5 45.8 47.2 48.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 497.2 503.2 509.2 516.4 523.6 530.9 538.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 396.7 411.4 424.0 439.6 457.9 477.8 498.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Algeria has substantial underexplored acreage. However, exploration will remain limited due to Sonatrach's strained financial position and a lack of foreign involvement in the sector over the long term.

  • The long-term outlook on oil and gas production is heavily bearish. A spate of small to medium-sized projects will support medium-term production growth, but a lack of new projects scheduled to come onstream beyond 2018-2019 will see decline rates outpacing new production.

  • A 2016 attack on a gas processing facility at the hand of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) underscored the ongoing security challenges facing industry assets.

  • Oil and gas consumption will continue to grow, as pervasive subsidies fuel inefficient consumption patterns.

  • The combination of rising consumption and falling production will severely undercut exports of oil and gas towards the end of our forecast period to 2025. Revenue will be further impacted by sustained lower commodity prices.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
9
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
17
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
21
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
21
Refining
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
37
Trade - Oil
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Crude Oil
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020)
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
41
Refined Fuels
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
46
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
49
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
49
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index
51
Upstream Index
51
Downstream Index
52
Market Overview
53
Algeria Energy Market Overview
53
Regulatory Overview
53
Licensing Regime
53
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms
54
Fiscal Regime
54
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms
54
Licensing Rounds
55
Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
LNG Terminals
56
Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals
56
Oil Refineries
57
Table: Algeria Oil Refineries
57
Gas Pipelines
57
Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
59
Table: Key Downstream Players
60
Company Profile
61
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
61
Latest Updates
61
Regional Overview
64
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
64
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
72
Glossary
73
Table: Glossary Of Terms
73
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Source
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
79
Table: Weighting
80

The Algeria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Algeria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Algeria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Algeria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.