BMI View: The Algerian petrochemicals market will continue to come under pressure in 201 6 as a result of slowing economic activity caused by falling oil prices. In addition, the local petrochemicals industry is unlikely to expand significantly, with investment largely focused on fertilisers.
In 2015, the fertiliser sector was the focus of expansion in 2015. Production is supported by the opening in H1 of Sonatrach's joint venture with Oman's Suhail Bahwan Holding Group, Al Djazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida (AOA), which was built at a cost of USD2.6bn and produces ammonia and urea for fertiliser. AOA has a capacity of 2.4mn tonnes per annum (tpa), leading to an increase in national production by about one-third. The launch of the AOA plant follows the announcement of modernisation and expansion plans at two other large ammonia and urea facilities.
The country also has around 178,000tpa of polyethylene (PE), 40,000tpa of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), 35,000tpa of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), 120,000tpa of methanol (rising to 1.12mn tpa by 2017) and 990,000tpa of ammonia, which should increase to 5.6mn tpa when new fertiliser plants enter production. These rises in capacity will also result in the production capacity for urea hitting 3.59mn tpa.
PVC demand should be supported by average construction growth of 5.9% in 2014-2023.
Growth in the automotive industry and rising local content in car-making should stimulate consumption of plastics products, but it remains to be seen whether local plastics converters will benefit.
In relation to the agricultural sector, the government's new emphasis on improving food self-sufficiency should help local chemical fertiliser consumption, although this is at the mercy of government subsidies that could be cut due to falling oil revenue.
Algeria's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged this quarter at 34.4 out of 100, putting it at the bottom of the table for the Middle East and Africa RRI table...
The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
- Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global & Regional Market Overview
Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.
Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:
Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene
Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.
The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.