Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Algeria Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

Domestic consumption of petrochemicals is set to be lacklustre in 2016, with economic growth at a relatively subdued 2.9% and consumer and business confidence remaining low. Lower oil prices are responsible for the erosion of economic performance. Additionally, they militate against Algeria's ability to capitalise on its gas resources to establish gas-based petrochemicals production.

The country has around 178,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of polyethylene (PE), 40,000tpa of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), 35,000tpa of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), 120,000tpa of methanol (rising to 1.12mn tpa by 2017) and 990,000tpa of ammonia, which should increase to 5.6mn tpa when new fertiliser plants enter production. These rises in capacity will also result in the production capacity for urea hitting 3.59mn tpa.

Algeria's economic growth will slow markedly over 2016. Under the pressure of lower oil prices, the government will adopt a greater shift towards spending cuts and protectionism. These trends will weigh on investment and consumption over the coming quarters, and we forecast the economy to grow by only 1.9% in real terms - the weakest rate since 2009.

  • Growth in the automotive industry and rising local content in car-making should stimulate consumption of plastics products, but it remains to be seen whether local plastics converters will benefit.

  • In relation to the agricultural sector, the government's new emphasis on improving food self-sufficiency should help local chemical fertiliser consumption, although this is at the mercy of government subsidies that could be cut due to falling oil revenue.

  • Algeria's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged this quarter at 32.6 out of 100, down 1.8 points since the previous quarter due to a downward revision in its country risk score. This maintains its bottom place in the table for the Middle East and Africa RRI table. The falling price of oil has undermined the refining sector, while market activity is increasingly sluggish. With no new petrochemicals capacities expected in the next five years, it is unlikely Algeria's position will improve.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Petrochemicals
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Consumption
14
Production
15
Table: Algeria Petrochemical Sector, 2012-2020
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: ALGERIA - COMPONENTS OF GDP (% OF TOTAL)
24
Table: ALGERIA - GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
24
Table: ALGERIA - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
25
Table: ALGERIA - FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
26
Table: ALGERIA - NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
26
Industry Risk/Reward Index
28
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
28
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016
33
Algeria Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
34
Market Overview
36
Upstream
36
Refining
37
Chemicals and Petrochemicals
38
Industry Trends And Developments
41
Upstream
41
Olefins & Polyolefins
43
Methanol
44
Fertiliser
45
Regulation
45
Company Profile
47
Sonatrach
47
Regional Overview
51
Middle East And Africa Overview
51
Market Diversification Crucial To Growth
53
Tightening Ethane Supplies
54
Diversification Is The Long-Term Focus
56
Africa Falls Behind
56
Global Industry Overview
58
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe
58
2016 Feedstock Outlook
60
Could US Gas Run out-
61
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn
62
Long-term Outlook
62
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
66
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025)
70
Glossary
72
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
72
Methodology
73
Industry Forecast Methodology
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
75
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.