Algeria Petrochemicals Report

Published 11 August 2015

  • 75 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Algeria Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: The Algerian petrochemicals market will come under pressure in 2015 as a result of slowing economic activity caused by falling oil prices. In addition, the local petrochemicals industry is unlikely to expand significantly, with investment largely focused on fertilisers.

The fertiliser sector is the focus of expansion in 2015. Production is supported by the opening in H1 of Sonatrach's joint venture with Oman's Suhail Bahwan Holding Group, Al Djazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida (AOA), which was built at a cost of USD2.6bn and produces ammonia and urea for fertiliser. AOA has a capacity of 2.4mn tonnes per annum (tpa), leading to an increase in national production by about one-third. The launch of the AOA plant follows the announcement of modernisation and expansion plans at two other large ammonia and urea facilities.

There was an immediate boost to overall petrochemicals production by the opening of AOA's operations. Petrochemical products output rose 82% y-o-y in Q115 to 924,000 tonnes due mainly to higher ammonia and urea production. However, constraints in the upstream sector saw Algeria's oil and natural gas output fall by 6% y-o-y despite an increase in investment. It produced 38.1mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) in the first quarter. Refined oil products output also fell 8.2% y-o-y to 7mn toe.

Key Developments

  • Algeria is aiming to build five refineries to double output by 2019. This will involve state-owned energy company Sonatrach investing USD90bn over its five-year investment plan to 2019 despite low oil prices.

  • Two Algerian-Qatari partnership petrochemicals projects are under consideration: a 5mn tpa phosphate chemical processing plant and a fertilizer plant. BMI believes that it is unlikely the projects will be completed before 2018. However the projects will not make up for the loss of the collapsed petrochemicals joint venture.

  • Algeria's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score declined 0.1 points this quarter to 34.4 out of...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Petrochemicals
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Consumption
14
Production
15
Table: Algeria Petrochemical Sector, 2012-2019
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts - Brent
21
Industry Risk Reward Index
27
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
27
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
31
Algeria Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
32
Market Overview
33
Upstream
33
Chemicals and Petrochemicals
34
Industry Trends And Developments
37
Upstream
37
Olefins & Polyolefins
39
Methanol
40
Fertiliser
41
Regulation
41
Company Profile
43
Sonatrach
43
Regional Overview
47
Middle East And Africa Overview
47
Feedstock Pricing Concerns
48
Tightening Ethane Supplies
49
Diversification Is The Long-Term Focus
51
Africa Falls Behind
52
Global Industry Overview
54
Could US Gas Run out-
56
Project Curtailments
58
Medium-term Outlook
59
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
62
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
62
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
63
Demographic Forecast
65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025)
66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025)
66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025)
68
Glossary
70
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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