Algeria Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Algeria Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Supported by a number of new natural gas-fired power pl ants, Algeria will experience strong electricity generation growth over the coming decade. Despite ambitious government's plans to expand the non-hydro renewables sector, the power generation mix will remain almost entirely dependent on natural gas. We believe that power consumption growth will outstrip new generation additions, but potential energy subsidy system reform poses a notable downside risk to our consumption forecast.

Headline Power Forecasts (Algeria 2015-2021)
2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 52.640 55.530 56.360 59.570 61.720 65.080 68.280
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 51.7 55.1 58.3 61.7 65.1 68.5 71.9
Capacity, Net, MW 16,192.2 16,933.3 17,926.3 18,516.8 19,122.7 19,733.7 20,351.2

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Supported by a number of new gas-fired power plants, we forecast Algeria's total electricity generation to continue increasing at a rapid pace, averaging 5% growth per annum during the coming decade. From an estimated 52.6TWh in 2015, we forecast total generation to reach 85.8TWh in 2025.

  • Despite ambitious plans in the non-hydro renewables sector, the country's power generation mix will remain almost entirely dependent on gas-fired generation, which is forecast to account for more than 97% of the total across our forecast period.

  • Growth in the non-hydro renewables sector is expected to benefit from China-backed solar projects. Rising from a very low-base, expansion in the sector will remain well-below ambitious government targets and will face numerous headwinds arising from a more austere government spending strategy and a challenging operating environment.

  • We forecast Algeria's energy consumption to rise by an annual average of 5.6% over the coming decade, rising from 51.7TWh in 2015 to 89.1TWh in 2025. We note that consumption growth will outstrip new generation additions during the forecast period.

  • Potential reforms to the country's energy subsidy system pose a notable downside risk to our consumption forecast, as this would raise the price of electricity and other energy products.

  • We believe that investments into the country's electricity transmission & distribution (T&D) infrastructure will reduce the share of electricity losses in the total output from an estimated 18.2% in 2015 to 14.5% in 2025.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Algeria Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Algeria Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
MENA Power RRI
26
Algeria Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation and Competition
35
Algeria Power Projects Database
37
Table: Algeria Major Projects - Power
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Regional Overview
40
MEA Power: Key Regional Themes
40
Glossary
46
Table: Glossary Of Terms
46
Methodology
47
Industry Forecast Methodology
47
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
52

The Algeria Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Algeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Algeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).