BMI View: Supported by a number of new natural gas-fired power pl ants, Algeria will experience strong electricity generation growth over the coming decade. Despite ambitious government's plans to expand the non-hydro renewables sector, the power generation mix will remain almost entirely dependent on natural gas. We believe that power consumption growth will outstrip new generation additions, but potential energy subsidy system reform poses a notable downside risk to our consumption forecast.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||52.640||55.530||56.360||59.570||61.720||65.080||68.280|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||51.7||55.1||58.3||61.7||65.1||68.5||71.9|
|Capacity, Net, MW||16,192.2||16,933.3||17,926.3||18,516.8||19,122.7||19,733.7||20,351.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Supported by a number of new gas-fired power plants, we forecast Algeria's total electricity generation to continue increasing at a rapid pace, averaging 5% growth per annum during the coming decade. From an estimated 52.6TWh in 2015, we forecast total generation to reach 85.8TWh in 2025.
Despite ambitious plans in the non-hydro renewables sector, the country's power generation mix will remain almost entirely dependent on gas-fired generation, which is forecast to account for more than 97% of the total across our forecast period.
Growth in the non-hydro renewables sector is expected to benefit from China-backed solar projects. Rising from a very low-base, expansion in the sector will remain well-below ambitious government targets and will face numerous headwinds arising from a more austere government spending strategy and a challenging operating environment.
We forecast Algeria's energy consumption to rise by an annual average of 5.6% over the coming decade, rising from 51.7TWh in 2015 to 89.1TWh in 2025. We note that consumption growth will outstrip new generation additions during the forecast period.
Potential reforms to the country's energy subsidy system pose a notable downside risk to our consumption forecast, as this would raise the price of electricity and other energy products.
We believe that investments into the country's electricity transmission & distribution (T&D) infrastructure will reduce the share of electricity losses in the total output from an estimated 18.2% in 2015 to 14.5% in 2025.
The Algeria Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Algeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Algeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).