Algeria Power Report

Published 16 July 2015

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Algeria Power Report

BMI View: Algeria has ambitious investment programme over 2015-202 4 , which will be driving strong gas generation growth. Historically strong gas-fired generation growth rates are supportive of further steady capacity growth, additionally the political situation is relatively stable and Algeria brought a sizeable 460MW Biskra gas plant online ahead of schedule last year. BMI considers these to be positive signs to spur the gas capacity growth.

Algerian state-owned incumbent Sonulgaz is aiming to build nearly 28GW of new capacity by 2025. The utility claims that 15.4GW of this capacity has already been allocated and over the next three years 14.2GW of new capacity will come online, most of which will be gas-fired. BMI has a fairly bullish view on this capacity coming online. Despite lower oil and gas prices, which are detrimental to the revenues that the Algerian state will be receiving, BMI's Country Risk team believes the Algerian GDP will 3.4% CAGR on average over 2015-2019. As another positive sign. Sonulgaz brought the fairly sizable 460MW Biskra gas-fired plant online early. BMI also believes that domestically available gas will help utilities cut the feedstock prices and make it cheaper to develop new gas-fired generation. As a result, BMI believes gas-fired generation will increase over 2015-2024, sidelining renewable generation growth.

The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 46.0TWh in 2015 to 75.5TWh in 2024. During 2015-2019 the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.1%, but is predicted to decline later in the decade to an average 5.4% during 2020-2024.

In 2011 the Algerian Council of Ministers approved a new national policy for renewable energy sources, which aims to install 22,000MW of renewable energy capacity between 2012 and 2030.

Low levels of liberalisation in the power sector, difficulties with accessing financing, high corruption and an opaque tendering process for projects...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Algeria Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Algeria 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Algeria Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2018)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2019-2024)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
MENA Power RRI
26
Algeria Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation and Competition
35
Algeria Power Projects Database
37
Table: Algeria Major Projects - Power
37
Competitive Landscape
38
Regional Overview
40
MEA Power: Key Regional Themes
40
Glossary
46
Table: Glossary Of Terms
46
Methodology
47
Industry Forecast Methodology
47
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
52

The Algeria Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Algeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Algeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Algeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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