Angola Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Angola Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Strong growth in Angola's crude oil production will pave the way for more robust real GDP growth in 2016. The resulting increase in government revenues will contribute to several infrastructure projects that will also support GDP over the year. However, increasing import costs as the effects of currency devaluations feed through into prices will pose a strong headwind.

  • Angola's current account deficit will record a mild improvement in 2016, as increasing oil production boosts export revenues in a climate of falling commodity prices. Even so, the deficit will remain high, financed by a mixture of external debt, and central bank reserves.

  • The Angolan government's crackdown on public displays of opposition is indicative of the fears surrounding the issue of President Eduardo Jose Dos Santos' succession. Although specific details of his succession remain unclear, there will be increased public protest and government violence as competing interests fight to have their voices heard.

  • As with many commodity dependent African countries, Angolan monetary policy will be determined largely by fluctuations in the value of the local currency. The likelihood of further devaluations of the kwanza will result in further hikes in the key policy rate in Q116, despite the decision to maintain rates at the latest monetary policy committee meeting.

  • The Angolan government is on the brink of a liquidity crisis owing to rising levels of external debt amid a climate of low revenues by recent standards. However, thanks to strong growth in oil production over the next two years and large offshore crude reserves, this crisis will not come to bear over our five-year outlook period.

Major Forecast Changes

  • The government's decision to maintain high levels of expenditure in the latest budget have led us to revise our forecasts for Angola's fiscal deficit, which we now expect to reach 2.8% of GDP in 2016.

Key Risks

  • The government decides it can no longer dedicate the amount of reserves required to sustain the kwanza's stability, and instead lets the currency free float at the market rate. This would likely lead to significant depreciation and subsequent inflation as import costs rose.

  • Public opposition to the incumbent government reaches boiling point and President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is forced out of office, leaving a power vacuum in his place. Populist groups rise to the fore in this environment, increasing the risk of industry nationalisation.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Angola 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
e/f = BMI estimate/ forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.8 4.9 2.4 3.7
Nominal GDP, USDbn 119.4 118.9 97.0 95.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 7.7 7.5 12.5 10.5
Exchange rate AOA/USD, eop 97.61 102.87 140.00 151.20
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.3 -5.4 -4.5 -2.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 7.0 -3.1 -11.8 -10.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Social Instability Adds Pressure To Succession Questions
8
TABLE: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Path To Political Inclusion Will Be Uncertain And Slow
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Weak Growth Follows From Oil Price Collapse
14
TABLE: Economic Activity
14
Fiscal Policy
16
Revenue Collapse Brings Deficit, Debt
16
Monetary Policy
17
Central Bank Weathers The Storm
17
TABLE: Monetary Policy
17
Balance Of Payments
19
Kwanza Under Pressure As Current Account Deficit Deepens
19
TABLE: Current Account
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Angolan Economy To 2024
23
New Priorities, Familiar Challenges
23
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: Operational Risk
26
Market Size And Utilities
28
TABLE: Sub -Saha ran Africa - Market Size And Utilities Risk
29
Interstate Security Risk
31
TABLE: Sub -Saharan Africa - Interstate Securit y Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
35
TABLE: Pharmaceutical Sales , Historical Data And Forecasts
36
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data And Forecasts
37
Other Key Sectors
39
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
39
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
39
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
40
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
41
Table: Global Assumptions
41
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growth, %
42
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GRO WTH FOR ECASTS, %
42
Table : Eme rgi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
43

Assess your risk exposure in Angola with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Angola with confidence.

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