BMI View : Construction industry growth in Angola will remain sluggish until 2020 as budgetary pressures weigh on the government ' s ability to finance infrastructure development. Keeping growth in positive territory over the short term is China ' s continued involvement in the sector, notably in residential and industrial construction and airport infrastructure .
Forecast & Industry Developments
We continue to forecast subdued construction industry growth of 3.3% in real terms between 2016 and 2019 as the weak commodities outlook limits revenues and the government's ability to finance infrastructure development. The continued support from China in the form of cheap credit lines and the increasing involvement of Chinese firms in the residential and non-residential building sectors and transport infrastructure will be crucial in keeping industry growth in positive territory.
The outlook for the construction industry will improve from 2020, in line with the expected recovery in Brent Crude oil prices, which will drive further investment into the oil industry and its associated infrastructure, and relieve budgetary pressures, allowing for government funding to be funnelled into construction development. Real growth is projected at 6.8% in 2020.
Over our full 10-year forecast period between 2016 and 2025 the market will record annual average growth of 5.3% in real terms.
|f=BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
|Construction industry value, AOAbn||1,270.43||1,430.51||1,590.30||1,772.23||2,015.91|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||2.54||3.35||3.17||3.94||6.75|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||9.1||8.9||8.2||8.6||8.8|
Angola remains in 14th place out of 17 markets in our Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index for Sub-Saharan Africa, with an overall score of 30.9 below the regional average of 38.9.
Growing political instability is weighing on Angola's overall performance in the Index, as dissatisfaction grows with the ruling party and the likelihood of a managed succession in 2017, if incumbent president Jose Dos Santos steps down as promised.
The banking sector remains ill-equipped to provide the long-term loans required for project financing, hindering the development of greenfield assets in the country, though we note that continued financing support from China will sustain subdued growth over the coming years.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Angola Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Angola Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Angolan infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.