BMI View : The Angolan government will struggle to devote significant financial attention to its key inf rastructure projects over 2016 given the wide fiscal deficit and decreased revenues owing to low oil prices. We expect a substantial uptick in growth for the construction sector from 2020 onwards as the country's fiscal position improves , though note the government will need to address pervasive corruption and ease labour market restrictions to attract necessary private investment.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We are maintaining our forecast of 2.5% real growth in 2016 as the fiscal budget remains in the red owing to low oil prices, thereby diverting funds away from infrastructure development.
The second half of our forecast period (2021-2025) will see the highest growth, averaging 6.7% in real terms. This is a result of investment flows into infrastructure to support the oil industry, in line with the expected recovery in Brent Crude oil prices.
The USD5.2bn credit line granted by the Chinese government in 2015 will provide support for projects in the utilities and residential sectors and into industrial and commercial construction.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Ministry of Planning, Angola Central Bank, BMI|
|Construction industry value, AOAbn||1,270.43||1,430.51||1,590.30||1,772.23||2,015.91|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||2.54||3.35||3.17||3.94||6.75|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||9.1||8.9||8.2||8.6||8.7|
Angola comes in 14 th out of 16 markets in our Sub-Saharan Africa RRI, with the score of 30.9, well below the regional average of 42.6.
Pervasive corruption, high taxes and strict labour regulations are key deterrents to entering the market.
Untapped oil reserves have the potential to boost industry growth, though we forecast this to impact our forecasts only from 2020, in line with improved oil prices.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Angola Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Angola Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Angolan infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.