BMI View: Angola's construction industry growth will trend substantially lower over the coming five years compared to the previous period as low oil prices impact fiscal spending on infrastructure. Chinese capital will become even more central to supporting infrastructure investment in Angola as government spending is constrained, Brazilian capacity is diminished by the corruption scandal and access to Eurobonds becomes increasingly expensive.
Key Trends And Developments
We are maintaining our expectation growth will trend lower in Angola's construction sector in 2015 and 2016, reaching 3.7% and 2.5% respectively.
Lower transport investment is the greatest driver behind our weak forecast, with a number of large projects close to completion, the government suspending the road building programme and reliance on government funding for the majority of the smaller projects. The new International Luanda Airport is likely to continue as expected.
A major electricity expansion programme is under way, intending to increase the country's power production capacity from the current 1,800 megawatts (MW) to 9,000MW by 2025. Projects under this programme have been moving forward and we expect them to progress, given the support of Chinese capital. However, one of the largest of these projects - the Lauca hydropower plant, which is due to come online in 2017 (for the initial 400MW), is being partially developed by a Brazilian company implicated in the scandal.
Angola is seeking to raise up to USD25bn in debt through treasury bills, eurobonds and credit lines to offset the impact of lower oil prices. Plans to launch the country's first eurobond, which will seek to raise between USD1-1.5bn, are still in place, but we expect delays in the face of rising yields, currency weakness and a strong US dollar.
The Angola Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Angola Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Angolan infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.