Angola Mining Report

Published 17 August 2015

  • 41 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Mining Report

BMI View: Angola's mining sector growth will continue to be driven by the country's diamond sector. We expect diamond mining growth will be supported with continued investment, both domestic and international, over our forecast period. Although the Angolan government keen to diversify the economy away from oil, mining expansion will be constrained by both inadequate infrastructure and high levels of bureaucracy.

We expect Angola's mining sector to expand at a steady pace through to 2019, reaching USD7.7bn in terms of overall output in 2019. Nevertheless, mining will remain far from a core industry sector in terms of the wider Angolan economy, barely contributing 4.0% of GDP and less than 10% of the country's oil revenues in 2019. For the medium term at least, the expansion of the industry will find itself constrained by a number of factors, ranging from a lack of supportive infrastructure and a challenging investment climate typified by high levels of corruption and red tape. As such, it is likely to be some time before the country begins to attract some of the larger global diamond miners, including De Beers, a company which, tellingly, already operates in neighbouring Botswana, Namibia and South Africa.

Angola is established as one of the most prominent diamond producers in the Sub-Saharan African region, coming third to Botswana and DRC in terms of total output, clearly ahead of South Africa. We expect Angola to retain this position over the next few years as, after a period of stagnation in production levels, the diamond mining sector begins to attract growing levels of investment. State-owned miner Endiama will be the main driver of growth in diamond mining activity as the Angolan government begins an ambitious growth strategy aimed at boosting mining revenues in order to offset falling oil export revenues and support the gradual diversification of the Angolan economy away from hydrocarbons. Endiama has a number of development projects under...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Diamonds: Investment To Support Increased Output
11
Angola To Dominate Regional Mining Landscape
12
Table: Diamond Production (Angola 2011-2019)
13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
14
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
14
Rewards
14
Risks
15
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Angola 2011-2019)
16
Africa Risk/Reward Index
16
High Risks, Large Rewards
16
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
19
Regulatory Development
20
Table: Angola Political Overview
22
Commodities Forecast
23
Commodity Strategy
23
Ferrous Metals
23
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
23
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
25
Non-Ferrous Metals
28
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
28
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
30
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
31
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
32
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
33
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Competitive Landscape
37
Company Profile
39
Endiama
39
Regional Overview
42
Regional Overview - Four Key Themes For 2015: Africa Mining
42
Gold To Retreat; Except In The DRC
42
West African Iron Ore On The Rocks
43
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
44
Mining To Remain A Crucial Contributor To African GDP
45
Global Industry Overview
47
Global Overview
47
2
50
3
51
4
53
5
55
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
60

The Angola Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Angola.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Angola's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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