Angola Mining Report

Published 12 February 2015

  • 56 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Mining Report

BMI View: Angola's mining industry is set to reach USD7 . 5 bn in 201 8 , growing at an average rate of 5.3 % a year . The rate of growth will remain stable thereafter , with diamonds providing the main thrust for production growth over the medium term. New areas of mining , including iron ore, copper and phosphates , are also receiving increasing international interest from investors and are expected to provide further momentum for Angola's mining sector over the long term. That said, we do not expect the mining sector to receive much attention from the government as the country's burgeoning oil sector attracts the lion's share of investment. Therefore, problems relating to mining such as poor infrastructure and stringent bureaucracy are unlikely to be resolved in the near term.

Government Aims Too Optimistic

Angola's government wants to boost diamond production by more than 20% in 2015. The potential increase is attributed to the launch of a major maintenance project on the Catoca mine, which produces 87% of Angola's diamonds. The country targets 9.5mn carats in production and 550,000 carats in artisanal production in 2015, according to Angola Geology and Mining Minister Francisco Queiroz. As yet, we see little chance that these aggressive expansion plans will come to fruition in the timeframe, primarily due to the country's infrastructure impediments. That said, we still forecast significant growth of around 5% in mining output, below the government's targets but still relatively high.

Oil To Overshadow Mining Growth
Angola - Sectors By Value (USDbn)

Regulatory Environment To Boost Investment

Operators in Angola's mining sector are starting to reap the benefits of a new mining code, whose long-awaited introduction came into effect at the end of 2011. In compiling all existing mining laws and regulations, it is hoped that the new code will ensure greater cohesion in the country's natural resources sector than the original code that was introduced in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Diamonds: Growing Investment To Drive Output Growth
10
Further Upside To Production Forecasts
11
Table: Diamond Production (Angola 2010-2018)
12
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
13
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
13
Large Rewards Matched By High Risks
13
West African Countries Trend Lower
14
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
15
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
15
Rewards
15
Risks
16
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Angola 2010-2018)
17
Regulatory Development
18
Table: Angola Political Overview
20
Commodities Forecast
21
Commodity Strategy
21
Ferrous Metals
21
Non-Ferrous Metals:
24
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
24
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
25
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
27
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
32
Competitive Landscape
33
Company Profile
35
Endiama
35
Regional Overview
37
Southern Coal To Come Under Pressure
37
West African Iron Ore In Peril
38
Zambian Copper Cutbacks
39
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
39
Tin Sector Remains A Bright Spot
40
Global Industry Overview
42
Unearthing The Key Mining Themes In 2015
42
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Angola Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Angola.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Angola's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc