Angola Mining Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Mining Report

BMI View: We forecast Angola's mining sector to grow to USD7.7bn in value in 2019 , expanding at an average rate of 6.1% a year over the 2015-2019 period. The mainstay of the industry will continue to be diamond mining with continued investment, both domestic and international, in this segment helping to support steady growth in output over our forecast period. While the Angolan government is increasingly turning its attention towards mining as it looks to diversify the economy away from oil, expansion will continue to be constrained by a lack of supportive infrastructure as well as high levels of bureaucracy.

Angola's mining landscape is relatively limited with total output of USD6.1bn forecast for 2015, comprising about 4.6% of GDP. That said, the country is established as one of the most prominent diamond producers in the Sub-Saharan African region, coming third to Botswana and DRC in terms of total output and clearly ahead of South Africa. We expect Angola to retain this position over the next few years as, after a period of stagnation in production levels, the diamond mining sector begins to attract growing levels of investment. State-owned miner Endiama will be the main driver of growth in diamond mining activity as the Angolan government begins an ambitious growth strategy aimed at boosting mining revenues in order to offset falling oil export revenues and support the gradual diversification of the Angolan economy away from hydrocarbons. Endiama has a number of development projects under way and is reported to be in the process of promoting 108 potential diamond mining concessions across the Lunda Norte, Lunda Sul, Malanje and Kwanza Sul provinces as well as the central plateau region.

Mining Still A Minnow Next To Oil
Angola - Sectors By Value (USDbn)

Alongside this, Luanda has become increasingly receptive to overseas entrants in diamond mining and other areas of minerals and metals production as it seeks to boost revenues. Australia-based Lucapa...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Diamonds: Growing Investment To Drive Output Growth
10
Further Upside To Production Forecasts
11
Table: Diamond Production (Angola 2010-2018)
12
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
13
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
13
Large Rewards Matched By High Risks
13
West African Countries Trend Lower
14
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
15
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
15
Rewards
15
Risks
16
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Angola 2010-2018)
17
Regulatory Development
18
Table: Angola Political Overview
20
Commodities Forecast
21
Commodity Strategy
21
Ferrous Metals
21
Non-Ferrous Metals:
24
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
24
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
25
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
27
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
32
Competitive Landscape
33
Company Profile
35
Endiama
35
Regional Overview
37
Southern Coal To Come Under Pressure
37
West African Iron Ore In Peril
38
Zambian Copper Cutbacks
39
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
39
Tin Sector Remains A Bright Spot
40
Global Industry Overview
42
Unearthing The Key Mining Themes In 2015
42
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Angola Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Angola.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Angola to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Angola's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc