Angola Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Angola Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018 oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand , but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the two planned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.

Headline Forecasts (Angola 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,757.0 1,809.7 1,894.8 2,015.6 2,036.7 1,999.8 1,940.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 43.8 45.6 47.0 48.4 65.3 114.3 142.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 115.7 120.9 124.7 128.7 133.4 138.5 144.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.7 0.5 4.7 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Trends

  • Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.

  • We have removed the planned 200,000 barrel per day (b/d) Lobito refinery from our forecast due to the lack of progress on construction plans and the fragile state of Sonangol, the state petroleum company. The removal of the Lobito refinery from our forecast has resulted in Angola remaining a net importer of refined fuels for the decade. Angola has a rapidly growing refined fuels demand with consumption averaging 4.0% over the next 10 years driven by robust construction sector growth and rises in disposable household income. Therefore, despite the Soyo refinery helping to ease imports needs from 80,000 b/d in 2018 to less than 2,000 b/d in 2020, strong domestic consumption will result in imports rising post-2020 and by 2025 we expect Angola's refined fuels imports to stand at 33,000 b/d.

  • Maersk Oil has postponed making a final investment decision on it deep-water Chissonga project in an effect to make cost-saving this year, expressing keenness to develop the project at a later date.

  • Sonangol has announced significant discoveries in the Kwanza basin adding up to 2.2bn barrels of oil equivalent, raising the countries oil reserves by 419mn barrels and gas reserves by 0.3tcf. The additional reserves were in the BP operated Block 24 and the Sonangol operated Block 20, highlighting the prospectivity of the region.

  • Eni have reaffirmed their commitment to continue exploratory drilling around the East and West Hub Development Projects with any discoveries able to tie-in to the existing FPSO's.

  • Our Power team expects the Soyo combined-cycle power plant to be operational by mid-2017. The capacity of the plant will be 750 megawatts and we expect it to demand around 0.43bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. While this is comparatively negligible, it will help to nearly double Angolan gas consumption. We have therefore revised up our forecasts for Angola's gas consumption, now projecting volumes to reach 0.54bcm in 2016, 0.76bcm in 2017 and 1.07bcm in 2018.

  • Chevron has announced that the Angolan LNG export project has started recommissioning with exports expected to begin in Q216.

  • Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining both production and export levels across our 10-year forecast period.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Angola 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Upstream Projects
11
Table: Angola's Major Upstream Projects
11
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Angola Key Projects Pre-FID
21
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2013-2018)
22
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2019-2024)
26
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2019-2024)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Angola 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Angola 2019-2024)
32
Gas Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2019-2024)
34
Trade - Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2013-2019)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
36
Fuels Trade Forecasts
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
41
Industry Risk Reward Index
42
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
42
Angola Upstream - Overview
42
Angola Downstream - Overview
42
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
45
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
48
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Market Overview
51
Angola Energy Market Overview
51
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: Angola MPSA Main Fiscal Terms
51
Licensing Regime
52
Table: Angola MPSA Main Contract Terms
52
Licensing Rounds
52
Table: Angola 2015 Onshore Bid Round
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Angola Oil Refineries
53
Oil Storage Facilities
53
Table: Angola Onshore Oil Storage Facilities
53
Oil Trade Facilities
54
Table: Angola Oil Trade Facilities
54
LNG Terminals
55
Table: Angola LNG Terminals
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil & Gas Sector
58
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
Sonangol
59
Chevron
65
Esso Exploration Angola
70
BP Angola
73
Total Exploration Angola
77
Eni Angola Production
82
Other Summaries
87
Regional Overview
93
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
93
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.