BMI View : Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018 oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand , but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the two planned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1,757.0||1,809.7||1,894.8||2,015.6||2,036.7||1,999.8||1,940.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||43.8||45.6||47.0||48.4||65.3||114.3||142.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||115.7||120.9||124.7||128.7||133.4||138.5||144.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.7||0.5||4.7||6.5||6.8||7.0||7.1|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.8||0.5||0.5||0.8||1.1||1.1||1.2|
Latest Updates And Key Trends
Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.
We have removed the planned 200,000 barrel per day (b/d) Lobito refinery from our forecast due to the lack of progress on construction plans and the fragile state of Sonangol, the state petroleum company. The removal of the Lobito refinery from our forecast has resulted in Angola remaining a net importer of refined fuels for the decade. Angola has a rapidly growing refined fuels demand with consumption averaging 4.0% over the next 10 years driven by robust construction sector growth and rises in disposable household income. Therefore, despite the Soyo refinery helping to ease imports needs from 80,000 b/d in 2018 to less than 2,000 b/d in 2020, strong domestic consumption will result in imports rising post-2020 and by 2025 we expect Angola's refined fuels imports to stand at 33,000 b/d.
Maersk Oil has postponed making a final investment decision on it deep-water Chissonga project in an effect to make cost-saving this year, expressing keenness to develop the project at a later date.
Sonangol has announced significant discoveries in the Kwanza basin adding up to 2.2bn barrels of oil equivalent, raising the countries oil reserves by 419mn barrels and gas reserves by 0.3tcf. The additional reserves were in the BP operated Block 24 and the Sonangol operated Block 20, highlighting the prospectivity of the region.
Eni have reaffirmed their commitment to continue exploratory drilling around the East and West Hub Development Projects with any discoveries able to tie-in to the existing FPSO's.
Our Power team expects the Soyo combined-cycle power plant to be operational by mid-2017. The capacity of the plant will be 750 megawatts and we expect it to demand around 0.43bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. While this is comparatively negligible, it will help to nearly double Angolan gas consumption. We have therefore revised up our forecasts for Angola's gas consumption, now projecting volumes to reach 0.54bcm in 2016, 0.76bcm in 2017 and 1.07bcm in 2018.
Chevron has announced that the Angolan LNG export project has started recommissioning with exports expected to begin in Q216.
Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining both production and export levels across our 10-year forecast period.
The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.