Angola Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Angola Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018 , oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand , but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the two planned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.

Headline Forecasts (Angola 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,757.0 1,809.7 1,856.4 1,908.6 2,052.2 2,015.2 1,955.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 43.8 45.6 47.0 48.4 65.3 114.3 142.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 115.7 120.9 124.7 128.7 133.4 138.5 144.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.7 0.5 4.7 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Trends

  • Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.

  • Cobalt's Zalophus-1 exploration well in Block 20, discovered a total of 570mn barrels of equivalent (boe), comprising 139mn barrels of condensate and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. The discovery is Cobalt's sixth pre-salt discovery offshore Angola and its third discovery in block 20. However, despite this remarkable run of exploration success, the Houston based company is in negotiations with Sonangol to sell its stake in the block, a possible sign of above-ground issues.

  • BP made a sizable discovery in Block 24, totalling 1.7bn boe, that comprises 280mn barrels of condensate and 8tcf of gas.

  • Isabella dos Santos has taken over as head of Sonangol, pledging to clean up the state oil company, making it more transparent and efficient while healing ties with international oil companies operating in Angola.

  • We have pushed back the start up date for Total's Kaombo project to the tail end of 2017, previously having the 230,000 b/d facility coming online in H117.

  • ALNG started exporting in June with the first cargo being bought by Vitol via a tendering process. The facility is shutting over the summer for planned maintenance, opening back up in September.

  • Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining both production and export levels across our 10-year forecast period.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Angola 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Angola's Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Angola Key Projects Pre-FID
21
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2014-2019)
23
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2020-2025)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2020-2025)
27
Refining
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2014-2020)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025)
33
Fuels Trade Forecasts
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019)
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
42
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
45
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
47
Upstream Index - Overview
47
Downstream Index - Overview
47
Market Overview
48
Angola Energy Market Overview
48
Fiscal Regime
48
Table: Angola MPSA Main Fiscal Terms
48
Licensing Regime
49
Table: Angola MPSA Main Contract Terms
49
Licensing Rounds
49
Table: Angola 2015 Onshore Bid Round
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Angola Oil Refineries
50
Oil Storage Facilities
50
Table: Angola Onshore Oil Storage Facilities
50
Oil Trade Facilities
51
Table: Angola Oil Trade Facilities
51
LNG Terminals
52
Table: Angola LNG Terminals
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
55
Company Profile
56
Sonangol
56
Latest Updates
56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola
57
BP Angola
58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola
59
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
59
Chevron
60
Latest Updates
60
Table: Major Projects In Angola
61
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
61
Eni Angola Production
62
Latest Updates
62
Table: Major Assets In Angola
63
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
63
Esso Exploration Angola
64
Latest Updates
64
Table: Key Assets In Angola
65
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
65
Total Exploration Angola
66
Latest Updates
66
Table: Key Assets In Angola
67
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
67
Regional Overview
68
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
68
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
77
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Terms
78
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Source
82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
82
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
84
Table: Weighting
85

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.