Angola Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 May 2015

  • 137 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Angola Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : The outlook for Angola's oil sector remains broadly positive, with highly prospective offshore acreage and a number of major projects under development. However, sustained lower oil prices pose downside risk to production growth post-2020 , as rapid natural decline rates and a slowdown in investment combine to undercut output levels. Gas production will remain limited throughout our 10-year forecast period due to low domestic consumption, unfavourable pricing dynamics and demand constraints in key export markets.

Headline Forecasts (Angola 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,844.8 1,805.3 1,885.7 1,911.2 1,985.2 2,052.4 2,181.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.2 1.7 0.9 4.3 5.4 5.7 5.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 38.3 38.5 38.6 38.6 115.9 185.5 215.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 133.0 136.1 142.3 148.7 155.0 161.7 168.5

Key trends and developments in Angola's oil and gas sector include:

  • Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.

  • Oil production is set for strong growth over coming years, as a number of major new projects are brought online. Post-2020, production growth will slow, due to rapid natural decline rates at producing fields and tightening investment in a lower oil price environment.

  • Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Angola 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Angola 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Angola 2019-2024)
9
Table: Major Planned Exploration Drilling
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Angola's Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2019-2024)
18
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Angola 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Angola 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
39
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
40
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
41
Established Producers On The Downturn
42
An Underwhelming Downstream
42
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Angola - Risk/Reward Index
45
Angola Upstream Rating - Overview
45
Angola Downstream Rating - Overview
45
Market Overview
46
Angola Energy Market Overview
46
Table: Upstream Projects
47
Overview/State Role
48
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Refineries In Angola
55
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil & Gas Sector
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
59
Table: Key Downstream Players
59
Company Profile
60
Sonangol
60
Chevron
65
Esso Exploration Angola
70
BP Angola
73
Total Exploration Angola
77
Eni Angola Production
82
Other Summaries
87
Regional Overview
92
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
92
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
92
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
94
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
96
High-Risk Continent
98
Downstream Blues
100
Global Industry Overview
102
Oil Price Outlook
102
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
102
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
103
Appendix
110
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
110
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
110
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
111
Africa - Regional Appendix
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
120
Angola - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
122
Angola - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Angola 2013-2018)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Angola 2019-2024)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Angola 2013-2018)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Angola 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Angola 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Angola 2019-2024)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Angola 2013-2018)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Angola 2019-2024)
129
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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