BMI View : Angola is among the most resilient of Africa's oil producers against sustained lower oil prices. This is due to a strong projects pipeline - with several major developments post-FID - and highly prospective deepwater acreages. However, we see downside to output post-2020, due to rapid decline rates at major maturing fields and prospective delays to projects which are pre-FID. Gas production will remain limited throughout our 10-year forecast period due to low levels of domestic consumption and unfavourable pricing dynamics and demand constraints in key export markets.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1,842.7||1,757.0||1,851.5||2,022.7||2,168.7||2,239.1||2,273.0|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.2||1.7||0.9||4.3||5.5||5.7||6.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.8||0.8||0.9||0.9||1.0||1.0||1.0|
|Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d||39.6||39.8||39.9||39.9||39.9||119.8||191.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||133.0||136.1||142.3||148.7||155.0||161.7||168.5|
Key trends and developments in Angola's oil and gas sector include:
Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.
Oil production is set for strong growth over coming years, as a number of major new projects are brought online. Post-2020, production growth will slow, due to rapid natural decline rates at producing fields and tightening investment in a lower oil price environment.
Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining both production and export levels across our 10-year forecast period.
Consumption growth will remain robust for both oil and gas, albeit from a comparatively low base.
Export revenues will come under pressure coming years, due to the sharp and sustained drop in oil prices, underutilisation of the LNG export terminal and the decline in oil-linked LNG prices.