BMI View: Like other oil-dependent countries , Angola has suffered from the large fall in the price of oil. The healthcare sector has been impacted by large budget cuts as a result of the lower government revenues. With waste collection services also affected by severe cuts, the country is expected to see a sharp rise in communicable diseases such as the re-emergence of yellow fever disease following a major outbreak which began in December 2015 . We believe that the deterioration of Angola ' s healthcare sector will work to impede the pharmaceutical market in the near-term at least until oil prices recover.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: AOA34.25bn (USD282mn) in 2015 to AOA36.70bn (USD252mn) in 2016; +7.1% in local currency and -10.7% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: AOA640.83bn (USD5.28bn) in 2015 to AOA703.14bn (USD4.83bn) in 2016; +9.7% in local currency and -8.5% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.326||0.282||0.252||0.260||0.278||0.298||0.320|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.22||0.27||0.25||0.23||0.21||0.22||0.21|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.4||5.3||5.2||5.2||5.1||5.1||5.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||6.026||5.277||4.829||5.046||5.424||5.835||6.289|
Angola's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q316 is 24.9, lower than last quarter's score of 27.3. The country drops two positions in this quarter's ranking, making it the least attractive pharmaceutical market of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region, sitting just below Zambia (26.3) and Zimbabwe (25.0). The country fares better in terms of Rewards than Risks, reflecting the country's oil-rich economy, its high real GDP growth and fast growing population.
In March 2016, world health officials warned of the risks of running out of vaccines to treat yellow fever after a major outbreak in Angola depleted emergency stockpiles in less than three months.
In March 2016, the Angolan Social Policy Commission praised healthcare efforts whilst reviewing the country's hospitals.
Also in March, the Angolan Health Minister stated that he expects an additional 2,000 people will be employed by the country's health sector, including physicians recently trained both in the country and abroad.
The health authorities of the municipality of Cuemba will continue its HIV/AIDS awareness programme in schools and other places and also revealed that none of the 3,800 people screened this year have tested positive thus far.
BMI Economic View
Angola will face another challenging year in 2016 as low oil prices, a weak investment climate, and rising inflation all contribute to low real GDP growth. The outlook improves slightly for 2017 as accelerating oil production supports exports, but the structural weaknesses in the economy will remain largely unaddressed.
BMI Political View
Although by no means guaranteed, a managed transfer of power to a chosen successor is the most likely outcome of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos' decision to step down from office in 2018. While ignoring democratic principle in any transition of power would increase resentment towards elites and heighten political risk, policy continuity would more than offset most of the impact on investor sentiment.
The Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angola pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Angola, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.