BMI View: Growth in Angola ' s pharmaceutical market will be supported by rapid population growth and the government ' s commitment to improving healthcare access and quality through small-scale reforms. However, the low government revenues, impacted by lower oil prices, will further limit healthcare funding in the coming years. Combined with poor intellectual property protection and low per capita spending, Angola will continue to be a very challenging market for multinational drugmakers and we regard it has one of the least attractive markets in the region.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: AOA36.33bn (USD302mn) in 2015 to AOA38.77bn (USD231mn) in 2016; +6.7% in local currency and -23.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: AOA457.04bn (USD3.80bn) in 2015 to AOA489.50bn (USD2.91bn) in 2016; +7.1% in local currency and -23.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards form last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.326||0.302||0.231||0.235||0.240||0.240||0.234|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.22||0.28||0.24||0.19||0.17||0.16||0.15|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||7.5||7.9||7.9||7.9||7.8||7.8||7.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.340||3.802||2.914||2.977||3.055||3.078||3.020|
Angola's Pharmaceutical RRI score for Q117 is 21.3 out of 100, lower than last quarter's score of 24.9. The low score makes the country the least attractive pharmaceutical market of the 32 countries in our Middle East and Africa regional matrix, sitting below Mozambique (23.8) and Zimbabwe (25.0). Angola's score is dragged down by its small market size (Market Expenditure score of 2.0 out of 20) and low per capita spending on medicines (scoring 1.2 out of 12). Also, Angola continues to post below regional average scores for every indicator.
Speaking on the sidelines of the 6th Ordinary Session of the Commission for Social Policy of the Cabinet Council on September 29 2016, the Angolan Minister of Health spoke of the country's aims to improve healthcare quality and access through sector reforms, including the introduction of new aspects such as health regulation and development of scientific research.
In September 2016, Merck KGaA announced that its largest delivery of praziquantel tablets ever shipped to Angola (for the treatment of schistosomiasis) arrived in Luanda.
In September 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the outbreak of yellow fever in Angola had been brought under control owing to a major vaccination campaign, with no new cases reported since June 23.
In August 2016, the WHO representative to Angola, Hernado Agudelo, warned about the rapid rise in the number of breast cancer cases reported in the country since 2008 and raised concern over the shortage of qualified human resources and lack of means of diagnosis needed to tackle the disease.
BMI Economic View
Angola will continue to struggle with slow economic growth over the next two years, as high inflation replaces low oil revenues as the economy's main headwind. While macroeconomic fundamentals will begin to improve from H216 as prices begin to stabilise and investment returns to the oil sector, we highlight the potentially destabilising effect of elevated political risk in the approach to 2017 presidential election and President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos' planned succession in 2018.
BMI Political View
While Angola faces elevated political uncertainty in the years ahead due to the forthcoming departure of long-time president Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, we continue to expect a managed succession whereby power is kept within his own party's elites. Although this will ensure broad policy continuity, it also means that the prospects for political and economic reform are limited and raises the likelihood of increased political unrest.
The Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angola pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Angola, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.