BMI View: Angola is emerging from a long civil war, which ha s resulted in years of neglect of its healthcare sector. Whilst the government is taking positive measures to address a lack of hospitals and medical professionals via infrastructure projects, foreign investment in the healthcare sector and a fast growing population remain key growth factors for both pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. However, we believe uncertainty surrounding President Eduardo Jose Dos Santos' succession and the rise in civil unrest will dampen multinational drugmakers ' interest in the market.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: AOA34.25bn (USD282mn) in 2015 to AOA36.70bn (USD252mn) in 2016; +7.1% in local currency and -10.7% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: AOA640.83bn (USD5.28bn) in 2015 to AOA703.14bn (USD4.83bn) in 2016; +9.7% in local currency and -8.5% in US dollar terms.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.326||0.282||0.252||0.260||0.278||0.298||0.320|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.22||0.27||0.25||0.23||0.21||0.22||0.21|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.4||5.3||5.2||5.2||5.1||5.1||5.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||6.026||5.277||4.829||5.046||5.424||5.835||6.289|
Angola's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q216 is 27.3, an improvement from last quarter's score of 24.4. The country's score only bests Nigeria (27.3) and Zimbabwe (25.0), making it the third least attractive pharmaceutical market of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region, sitting just below Zambia (29.1). The country fares better in terms of Rewards than Risks, reflecting the country's oil-rich economy, its high real GDP growth and fast growing population.
In January 2016, the Bundas Municipal director of health stated that in 2015, the Voluntary Counselling and Testing Centre diagnosed at least 293 new cases of HIV/AIDS in the city, an increase from 167 in 2014.
Also in January 2016, the Angolan Minister of Health pledged his commitment to improve education, care and affordability of treatment for patients with diabetes.
United Arab Emirates-based Canadian Specialist Hospital said it is to fully explore hospital building opportunities in Angola, conducting a feasibility study in recent months with the aim of expanding operations in Africa.
BMI Economic View
Strong growth in Angola's crude oil production will pave the way for more robust real GDP growth in 2016. The resulting increase in government revenues will contribute to several infrastructure projects that will also support GDP over the year. However, increasing import costs as the effects of currency devaluations feed through into prices will pose a strong headwind.
BMI Political View
The Angolan government's crackdown on public displays of opposition is indicative of the fears surrounding the issue of President Eduardo Jose Dos Santos' succession. Although specific details of his succession remain unclear, there will be increased public protest and government violence as competing interests fight to have their voices heard.
The Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angola pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Angola, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.