Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 30 April 2015

  • 62 pages
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$1,295.00
Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Angola's pharmaceutical market is held back by weak regulatory framework and lack of intellectual property legislation which create a challenging environment for i nnovative drugmakers. The fall in the price of oil will have a heavy impact the economy as a whole. Despite the dominance of oil revenue for Angola's state funding, the country will go ahead with its plans to decentralise the health system. The government will increase its share of the total healthcare market over the long term; however, state spending will remain modest in the sh ort term given lower oil prices.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: AOA35.48bn (USD344mn) in 2014 to AOA38.99bn (USD362mn) in 2015; +13.1% in local currency and +5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AOA625.28bn (USD6.24bn) in 2014 to AOA703.40bn (USD6.52bn) in 2015; +12.5% in local currency and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upward from last quarter due to the release of confirmed WHO data.

Risk/Reward Index

Angola's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q315 is 29.6, just lower than Nigeria (30.0). It falls three places from last quarter's ranking, making it the 28th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa region.

Key Trends And Developments

March 2015

Two health centres were inaugurated in the neighbourhood and communal headquarters of Luvo, in Mbanza Kongo in Angola's northern Zaire province on March 6. The centres, which were built within the municipal programme of rural development, have a capacity of 10 beds and 15 beds. The units are well equipped to offer integrated health services such as antenatal care, family planning, nutrition, expanded programme on immunizations (PAV), childcare, delivery and postpartum to the local population.

BMI Economic View

Real GDP growth in Angola will slow sharply to 1.9% in 2015 from an estimated 4.1% in 2014. Lower oil prices will have severe repercussions for the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Angola 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Angola 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Angola 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Angola 2011-2019)
20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Economic Analysis
22
Table: Economic Activity (Angola 2010-2019)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
27
Angola Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Epidemiology
38
Clinical Trials
42
Regulatory Development
43
Regulatory Development
43
Intellectual Property Issues
44
Pricing Regime
44
Competitive Landscape
46
Company Developments
47
Company Profile
48
Nova Angom-dica
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025)
51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025)
51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025)
53
Glossary
55
Methodology
57
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Notes On Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Index Overview
60
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Indicator Weightings
61

The Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angola pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Angola, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Angolan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc