Argentina Autos Report

Published 09 February 2015

  • 69 pages
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Argentina Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Argentina declined 36.3% in 2014, to 613,848 units. BMI remains bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2015. We believe ongoing currency controls, rampant inflation, falling fixed investment and the expiry of the government's subsidised car purchasing scheme will all weigh on vehicle sales and production over the year.

We project that high inflation, slowing real wage growth, low fixed investment and increasing unemployment levels are likely to keep private consumption subdued in 2015, weighing on consumers' appetite for big ticket items and businesses' demand for fleet vehicles. On Top of this, the end of the government's Pro.Cre.Auto car loan scheme will further dampen demand as cheap access to car loans dries up amid rising interest rates in the country. Accordingly, we forecast a 6.3% decline in 2015 with only tepid 0.3% growth to follow in 2016.

We caution that, if inflation continues to escalate, Argentine consumers may start to purchase vehicles as a store against inflation, as we have seen in Venezuela. While this is not our current core view, this would serve to drive sales, but would lead to a huge increase in used car prices and further exacerbate inflation problems.

Vehicle production in Argentina contracted 22.0% in 2014, to 617,329 units, on the back of sustained declines in the domestic and export markets such as Brazil. BMI expects these dynamics to continue, and believes that this will weigh on output volumes over the year. Consequently we are forecasting a 4.6% decline in 2015 followed by a modest 3% recovery in 2016.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Production, Sales and Trade
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
12
Sales
12
Table: Argentina Vehicle Sales By Brand
15
Production
16
Table: Argentina Vehicle Production By Brand
17
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
19
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
19
Sales
19
Table: Argentina Passenger Car Sales By Brand
20
Production
23
Table: Argentina Car Production By Brand
23
Trade
25
Investments
27
Commercial Vehicles
29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2018)
29
Sales
29
Table: Argentina LCV Sales By Brand
30
Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Sales By Brand
31
Production
31
Table: Argentina LCV Production By Brand
32
Table: Argentina Heavy Truck Production By Brand
32
Suppliers
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Table: Economic Activity (Argentina 2009-2018)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Americas - Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Company Profile
44
Company Monitor
44
Regional Overview
48
Industry Trend Analysis
48
Table: Latin America Production Investment Jun-Sep 2014
48
Global Industry Overview
53
Table: The Internet Of Cars
53
Demographic Forecast
55
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
56
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
57
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
58
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
58
Methodology
59
Industry Forecasts
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Argentina Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Argentina Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Argentina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc