Argentina Autos Report

Published 12 May 2015

  • 75 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Argentina Autos Report

BMI remains bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2015 and we forecast of a 6.3% decline in vehicle sales for the year. Following the 36.3% fall in vehicle sales in 2014, we believe further drags on sales will be generated by rampant inflation, falling consumer and business spending and the expiry of the government's subsidised car purchasing scheme. Ongoing currency controls and weakness in the Argentine peso in the country will also continue to push up vehicle prices, dragging on vehicle sales.

Consumer And Business Spending To Remain Low

Despite a slight rally in consumer confidence in Q115, our Country Risk team remains confident that inflation will average 17% for the year, leading to an erosion of household purchasing power and a 0.8% fall in overall private consumption in 2015 . This will drag on sales growth through the private household market channel and informs our forecast that passenger car sales will decline 7.3% to 401,109 units.

Furthermore, falling business spending represented in our Country Risk team's forecast of a 2.0% fall in fixed investment, will also limit sales potential. As businesses curb investment amid falling GDP and growing economic uncertainty, sales of new vehicles through the business fleet purchasing channel will fall concurrently.

Upward Price Pressures To Continue But Weaken Slightly

After vehicle prices rose more than 48% in 2014 amid the central bank's devaluation of the peso and the government's currency controls, we expect pricing pressures to ease slightly over 2015 but to ease slightly. The government's slight loosening of capital controls for automotive importers will partly loosen the squeeze on the supply of imported vehicles and components, while slight currency depreciations will place only mild upward pressure on prices when compared to the price effects of the 2014 peso devaluation. Thus, we still expect further price inflation for vehicles, but these will not be to the same extent as last...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production, Sales and Trade
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
14
Sales
14
Table: Argentina - Retail Sales Of Vehicles By Brand, Top 15 Brands, Units
19
Production
20
Table: Argentina - Vehicle Production By Brand, Units
23
Trade
23
Passenger Vehicles
25
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
25
Sales
25
Table: Argentina - Sales To Dealers By Brand, Units
26
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand, Units
29
Production
30
Table: Argentina Car Production By Brand, Units
31
Trade
31
Investments
33
Commercial Vehicles
35
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
35
Sales
35
Table: Argentina - LCV Wholesales To Dealers, By Brand
36
Table: Argentina - Heavy Truck Sales To Dealers, By Brand
37
Production
37
Table: Argentina - LCV Production By Brand, Units
40
Table: Argentina - Heavy Truck Production By Brand, Units
40
Table: Argentina - Bus Production By Brand, Units
41
Suppliers
41
Macroeconomic Forecasts
43
Economic Analysis
43
Table: Economic Activity (Argentina 2010-2019)
48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
49
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
49
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Index
52
Company Profile
53
Industry Trend Analysis
53
Regional Overview
58
Industry Trend Analysis
58
Table: Latin America - Production Investment Q115
58
Global Industry Overview
62
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
62
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
62
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
64
Asia Carries The BRIC States
65
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025)
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecasts
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
74
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Argentina Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Argentina Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Argentina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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