Argentina Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Argentina Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Argentina Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • We expect a substantial uptick in investment in the coming quarters following a devaluation and liberalisation of Argentina's external accounts. Although real GDP will contract in 2016 as private consumption declines in response to falling real purchasing power, Argentina will enter a period of robust growth as foreign investment flows into the country.

  • The government of President Mauricio Macri will reduce the country's budget deficit in the coming years by reducing government subsidies on electricity. This will temper inflationary pressures as the government can move away from printing new pesos to finance its substantial deficit. Nonetheless, subsidy reduction will be gradual in order to limit the shock to consumers' disposable incomes.

Key Risks

  • The largest risk to the Argentine economy stem from potential pushback from the Frente para la Victoria in Argentina's legislature. The party maintains a majority of seats in the country's senate, and could block many of Macri's proposed reforms.

  • Weak economic growth in key trade partners such as Brazil could weigh on Argentine export growth more than our forecasts currently anticipate. Moreover, soy revenues could disappoint on the back of unfavourable weather across the Americas region, dampening agricultural exports and hurting the current account balance. In addition, should the Argentine government revert back to anti-business policies, financial account outflows would likely put additional downward pressure on foreign reserves.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
f=BMI forecast; Source: INDEC, BCRA, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -2.6 2.4 -0.6 3.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 567.4 630.3 523.4 656.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 12.7 26.9 30.0 12.0
Exchange rate ARS/USD, eop 8.50 12.90 13.80 12.50
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.4 -3.9 -5.3 -4.8
Current account balance, % of GDP -1.4 -2.5 -0.8 -0.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Rapidly Improving Investor Sentiment Boosts Growth Outlook
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: 10-YEAR GDP FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORT FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Reforms Support Gradual Reduction Of Fiscal Deficits
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Export Gains Power Return To Current Account Surpluses
12
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
14
Monetary Policy
16
Tight Monetary Policy Will Gradually Pull Down Inflation
16
Currency Forecast
17
ARS: Capital Inflows Support Gradual Appreciation
17
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Argentine Economy To 2025
21
Long-Term Growth Driven By Reform Agenda
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
Macri Will Shift Focus To Business Environment Improvements
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
28
Post-2015 Election, Discourse Moves To The Centre
28
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
32
Economic Openness
33
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PARTNERS & PRODUCT IMPORTS, 2009-2013, USDMN
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
35
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
36
Availability Of Labour
38
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA-AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
39
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ('000), 2008-2012
40
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
41
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
Summer Of Risk
43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
47

Assess your risk exposure in Argentina with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Argentina with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report