Argentina Freight Transport Report

Published 07 May 2015

  • 72 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Freight Transport Report

BMI View : We maintain our cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. The Argentine economy will contract for a second consecutive year in 2015 as government policies continue to discourage investment and high inflation weighs on real private consumption. We forecast a contraction of 1.3% in GDP in 2015, after an estimated contraction of 0.5% in 2014.

We caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes over the coming years. Air freight is the only mode in which we expect growth in 2015, but with growth of just 0.15% forecast we caution that the outlook for volumes remains subdued. We expect road and rail volumes to contract by 0.31% and 0.39% respectively. While our outlook softens somewhat over the medium term, as we expect the election of a new government in October 2015 to mark a return to more orthodox, business-friendly economic policies, we caution that unwinding Argentina's economic imbalances will be a prolonged affair, and this is reflected in our forecasts for slow growth to 2019.

Air freight is set to be the only sector in which we will see positive growth over the coming months. We forecast that Argentina's air freight volumes will post slow growth in 2015, of 0.15% on top of 2014's estimated growth of 0.25%. As a sector, air freight is directly tied to Argentina's struggling consumer. Although consumer confidence has risen in recent months as reserves have begun to stabilise and price expansion has slowed, we maintain our forecast for elevated average inflation through 2015, at 17.0%, meaning that imported luxuries such as electronic goods and fresh horticulture will become even rarer.

Sluggish consumer confidence will also put downside pressure on Argentina's road freight volumes over the coming quarters. Although consumer confidence has risen...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (Argentina 2012-2019)
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Argentina 2012-2019)
18
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
19
Table: Main Export Destinations (2006-2013)
20
Road Freight Forecast
21
Table: Road Freight (Argentina 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Argentina 2012-2019)
25
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Argentina 2012-2019)
28
Company Profile
29
Am-rica Latina Log-stica (ALL)
29
Agunsa
34
Aerolineas Argentinas
37
Ultrapetrol
40
Political Outlook
45
Domestic Politics
45
Long-Term Politics
49
Table: Argentina Political Overview
53
Oil Price Outlook
55
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
56
Macroeconomic Forecasts
58
Economic Analysis
58
Table: Economic Activity (Argentina 2010-2019)
63
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025)
65
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025)
65
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025)
67
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Sources
72

The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc