Argentina Freight Transport Report

Published 10 February 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. Argentina's economic recession will persist in 2015, and will be deeper than we previously anticipated due to very weak private consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Argentine real GDP will contract in 2015 due to tepid private consumption and fixed investment growth. We forecast real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2015, a downward revision from our previous forecast of 1.0% growth. This will follow estimated growth of -0.5% in 2014, which we have also revised down from our previous expectation of a 0.2% expansion. Persistent weakness in gross fixed capital formation will also contribute to the continued slowing of Argentina's economy in 2015. The country's business environment will remain poor under the leadership of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Policies such as capital controls and import restrictions will continue to deter foreign investment throughout the remainder of the president's term to December 2015. We therefore forecast real fixed investment to contract by 0.2% in 2015, compared with an estimated 2.5% drop in 2014.

We caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes over the coming years.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total volume at the port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 1.6% in 2015 to reach 10.5mn tonnes.

  • Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.5% to 242.7mn tonnes in 2015, with average annual growth 5.3% over our forecast period.

  • Rail freight hauled in 2015 will shrink by -0.18% to 22.6mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 1.7% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Labour Disputes Remain A Risk: BMI notes that labour disputes remain common in the Argentine freight sector. Argentine opposition labour unions staged their second general strike this...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Argentina - Q115
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Argentina - Q115
14
Rail Freight
14
Table: Rail Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
16
Air Freight
16
Table: Air Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight (Argentina 2011-2018)
20
Table: Trade Overview (Argentina 2011-2018)
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Argentina 2011-2018)
21
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
22
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2012
23
Market Overview
24
Argentina - Q115
24
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Argentina - Q115
27
Company Profile
31
Am-rica Latina Log-stica (ALL)
31
Agunsa
36
Aerolineas Argentinas
39
Ultrapetrol
42
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Long-Term Political Outlook
51
Table: Argentina Political Overview
56
Macroeconomic Forecasts
57
Economic Analysis
57
Table: Economic Activity (Argentina 2009-2018)
62
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Sector-Specific Methodology
68
Sources
69

The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc