Argentina Infrastructure Report

Published 05 February 2015

  • 60 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Argentina Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We forecast a return to growth for Argentina's construction industry at 1.3% in 2015, partly as a result of low base effects and an investment drive prior to the October residential elections. Growth will be driven by energy and transport infrastructure projects where Chinese and Russian investors will play a key role.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Our Country Risk team forecasts Argentina's economic recession will persist in 2015 and will be deeper than we previously forecast due to weak private consumption and gross fixed capital formation which is a good proxy for infrastructure. They forecast real GDP to contract by 0.7% this year, which compares with estimated growth of -0.5% in 2014.

  • Consumer price inflation has continued to accelerate in the months since the January 2014 currency devaluation and will remain elevated in 2015 on the back of an increase in government spending in advance of the October general elections. Double-digit inflation (forecast at 17.0% in 2015) will erode real purchasing power of consumers and weigh on sentiment which will be detrimental to the construction of new homes. This is in addition to Argentina's largely dollarised real estate sector which has suffered severely from the scarcity of dollars derived from the government's exchange controls.

  • Interventionist government policies by President Cristina Fern├índez de Kirchner have damaged Argentina's business environment, and despite efforts to improve the investment climate over the past year, inbound investment will remain muted through the end of the current administration's term in mid-December. Most notably, import restrictions are hurting the construction industry by increasing the cost of materials and limiting access to capital.

  • Our view is that the Argentine government will negotiate a settlement with investors who have refused restructuring offers on defaulted debt - the so-called 'holdouts' - in advance of October 2015 general election. This forms part...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Infrastructure SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Argentina 2012-2017)
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Argentina 2018-2023)
9
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
17
Table: Major Projects - Transport
20
Energy & Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
24
Table: Energy & Utilities - Major Projects
28
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Argentina - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Rewards
38
Risks
39
Industry Trend Analysis
40
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Index
43
Market Overview
44
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: Argentina EQS Data
44
Company Profile
46
Roggio
46
Techint
48
Table: Techint Group Consolidated Highlights (USDmn)
50
Global Industry Overview
51
Table: Construction Industry Value, Real Terms, % Change
52
Table: BMI's Top 5 Markets
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Sector-Specific Methodology
64
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Argentina Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Argentina Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc