BMI View: Private investment in Argentina's infrastructure will increase if - as we expect - a more centrist government is elected in the upcoming presidential elections, creating a more favourable investment environment. Argentina's well educated labour force will support construction industry growth from 2016 onwards, al though high minimum wages may weaken the profitability of projects.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Our Country Risk team expects Daniel Scioli of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FpV) party to win the presidency, albeit in a second round in November 2015, defeating his main rival, centre-right Mauricio Macri.
After a new government is inaugurated in 2016, we expect gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will return to real expansion. Businesses will begin construction of fixed assets as expectations for more business-friendly policies, such as tax incentives for investment, are implemented. Further, the end of Fernandez's administration will improve perceptions about the Argentine government. Reduced restrictions on imports and a weakened peso will reduce the cost for foreign businesses looking to expand in the country's infrastructure sector. In this context, we forecast construction industry growth to reach 3.7% in real terms in 2016.
Our Country Risk team forecasts Argentina's economy to grow by a significantly stronger 2.5% in 2016, after an estimated 0.7% in 2015. Real gross fixed capital formation will experience significant growth in the coming quarters, in line with our construction industry forecasts.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: INDEC, BMI|
|Construction industry value, ARSbn||222.07||268.80||343.21||395.34||433.61||473.60||512.26|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||-0.60||4.04||3.68||3.19||2.68||2.72||2.16|
The Argentina Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Argentina Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.