BMI View: Highly p rospective acreage, a strengthening competitive landscape and supportive pricing dynamics will help insulate the Argentine shale sector from aggressive clawbacks in industry spending. A shift toward a more investor-friendly mandate under the Macri administration will open up significant opportunities in Argentina ' s upstream sector . As such, t he core Neuquen shale province will benefit from increased development over the course of the next decade , although more peripheral shale formations could take longer to develop .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: MEM, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||701.3||698.3||702.6||708.6||717.8||729.4||742.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||678.7||678.7||685.5||688.9||692.3||694.4||696.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||794.1||799.6||789.3||822.4||865.1||920.0||991.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||41.5||42.9||45.0||46.9||48.7||50.8||53.1|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||45.5||46.0||45.2||45.9||47.0||48.5||50.0|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Our neutral outlook for prices over H216 continues to play out and we maintain our USD46.5/bbl average forecast for Brent this year. We expect significant support around USD42.0/bbl to hold and for a rebound from these levels over the coming weeks .
Economic activity growth in Argentina will be driven by surging investment over the coming years. After years of underinvestment due to macroeconomic instability, interventionist government policy and a lack of access to capital markets, investment will flock to key sectors including agriculture, energy and real estate following the economy's rapid liberalisation under President Mauricio Macri.
Although real GDP will contract 0.6% y-o-y in 2016 as a result of elevated inflation and rising unemployment, increasing investment over the coming quarters will lead to a strong rebound in 2017.
Argentine shale prospects will be resilient in the face of volatility in oil prices as falling commercial breakevens and vast proven reserves will encourage continued investment into the sector thanks to an improving regulatory environment. Though June, state-owned YFP reported that horizontal well costs had fallen to USD11.0mn per well, representing a USD2.6mn decline versus 2015.
The Argentine Supreme Court's suspension of energy tariff hikes in August will temporarily set back President Macri's reform agenda by slowing fiscal consolidation efforts. Nonetheless, we believe the president's reform agenda will remain broadly on course as he gradually increases tariffs over the coming quarters as the administration leverages a divided opposition to pursue business environment improvements.
The Argentina Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Argentina including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Argentina Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Argentina to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.