Argentina Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 June 2015

  • 137 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Argentina Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Highly p rospective acreage, a strengthening competitive landscape and supportive pricing dynamics will help insulate the Argentine shale sector from aggressive claw backs in industry spending. A shift toward a more centrist government after the Octo ber 2015 presidential election will open up significant investment opportunities in Argentina, particularly within the oil and gas sector. As such, t he core Neuquen shale province will over the course of the next decade , although the more peripheral shale formations will see limited investment. Increased investment and a growing exploration drive point to a marked improvement in investor sentiment, and we expect this trend to continue over the next several quarters.

Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 691.1 698.0 705.0 713.6 723.5 734.0 745.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 679.0 685.8 692.6 703.0 713.6 724.3 738.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 804.8 813.5 822.1 857.7 916.7 985.8 1,074.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 36.9 37.6 38.4 39.5 40.8 42.3 44.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 45.7 46.4 46.8 47.9 49.3 50.7 52.3

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:

  • Argentina's real GDP will contract in 2015 as currency controls and high levels of inflation weaken real wages and discourage fixed asset investment. In 2016, the country's economy will return to positive growth after the October 2015 election as a new administration encourages an expansion of business-friendly policies, with the oil and gas sector emerging as a main beneficiary.

  • The government, at both the federal and provincial level, has been enacting a programme of reform to...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Argentina 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Argentina 2019-2024)
11
Table: Amended Hydrocarbons Law
13
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Argentina Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
22
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
22
Refining
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Argentina 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Argentina 2019-2024)
28
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Argentina 2013-2018)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Argentina 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
43
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
45
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
45
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
48
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
50
Argentina - Risk/Reward Index
51
Argentina Upstream Index - Overview
51
Argentina Downstream Index - Overview
52
Market Overview
53
Argentina Energy Market Overview
53
Overview/State Role
53
Licensing And Regulation
54
Government Policy
54
Licensing Rounds
55
International Energy Relations
56
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Refineries In Argentina
59
Service Stations
60
Oil Terminals/Ports
60
Oil Pipelines
61
LNG Terminals
61
Gas Storage
62
Gas Pipelines
62
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
66
Table: Key Upstream Players
67
Table: Key Downstream Players
67
Company Profile
68
YPF
68
Petrobras
74
Chevron
78
Total
81
ExxonMobil
85
Royal Dutch Shell
88
Other Summaries
90
Regional Overview
94
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
94
Global industry overview
103
Oil Price Outlook
103
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
103
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
104
Appendix
111
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
112
Latin America - Regional Appendix
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
120
Argentina - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
121
Argentina - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
129
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Argentina Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Argentina including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Argentina Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Argentina to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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