Argentina Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Argentina Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Highly p rospective acreage, a strengthening competitive landscape and supportive pricing dynamics will help insulate the Argentine shale sector from aggressive claw backs in industry spending. A shift toward a more centrist government under the newly inaugurated Macri administraion will open up significant investment opportunities in Argentina, particularly within the oil and gas sector. As such, t he core Neuquen shale province will experience increased development over the course of the next decade , although more peripheral shale formations could receive less investment.

Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 691.1 698.2 705.2 713.8 723.7 735.4 754.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 36.9 37.2 38.0 38.9 40.1 41.5 43.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 45.7 45.5 45.9 45.5 46.4 47.8 49.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 679.0 665.4 638.8 606.9 616.0 622.1 628.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 804.8 810.0 823.8 831.6 881.1 948.6 1,036.3
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:

  • The election of Mauricio Macri's will usher in a reform platform leading to a long-term boost in foreign investment into Argentinean oil and gas. Significant investment will take years to materialise, however, and 2016 will see significant external account shocks as new investment is not enough to offset the impact of currency devaluation.

  • Argentina will experience a modest recession in 2016 as policies implemented by President Mauricio Macri will erode short-term private consumption. Thereafter, the country will enter a period of more robust growth as foreign investment supports upstream development of both oil and natural gas resources.

  • Argentinean shale prospects will be resilient in the face of volatility in oil prices as low commercial breakevens and vast proven reserves will encourage continued investment into the sector thanks to an improving regulatory environment.

  • Argentine shale exploration is heavily dominated by a few major companies, most notably Chevron and YPF. ExxonMobil and Shell are also expanding their presence. These large, integrated companies have less exposure to falling revenues, have stronger cash flows, are typically less levered and have higher capex budgets.

  • Increased investment into the sector will support our positive outlook for natural gas production growth. We expect output to rise by an average of 4.1% year-on-year through 2024 with particular strength in the latter half of the period as economic reforms begin to take hold.

  • The victory of Mauricio Macri will boost the growth prospects of the country's power market and demand for natural gas feedstock. Macri's ability to bolster investor confidence in the market, along with his plan to cut electricity subsidies and reduce state control over the energy sector, supports this view.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Argentina 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Argentina 2019-2024)
11
Table: Amended Hydrocarbons Law
13
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Argentina Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
22
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
22
Refining
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Argentina 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Argentina 2019-2024)
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Argentina 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Argentina 2019-2024)
27
Gas Consumption
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2019-2024)
29
Trade - Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Argentina 2013-2018)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Argentina 2019-2024)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
41
Upstream RRI: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
43
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
44
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
46
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
48
Argentina - Risk/Reward Index
49
Argentina Upstream Index - Overview
49
Argentina Downstream Index - Overview
50
Market Overview
51
Argentina Energy Market Overview
51
Overview/State Role
51
Licensing And Regulation
52
Government Policy
52
Licensing Rounds
53
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
57
Oil Refineries
57
Table: Refineries In Argentina
57
Service Stations
58
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
Oil Pipelines
59
LNG Terminals
59
Gas Storage
60
Gas Pipelines
60
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape Summary
63
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
65
Table: Key Upstream Players
65
Table: Key Downstream Players
66
Company Profile
67
YPF
67
Petrobras
74
Chevron
78
Total
81
ExxonMobil
86
Royal Dutch Shell
89
Other Summaries
92
Regional Overview
96
Latin America Overview
96
Global industry overview
105
Global Energy Market Overview
105
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
109
Appendix
111
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
112
Latin America - Regional Appendix
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
120
Argentina - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
121
Argentina - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Argentina 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Argentina 2019-2024)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2013-2018)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Argentina 2019-2024)
129
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Argentina Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Argentina including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Argentina Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Argentina to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.