BMI View : Following years of unorthodox economic policy, the new Argentine government's reforms is beginning to unlock the vast non-hydropower renewable potential, with the country's first tender rounds in Q4 2016 being significantly oversubscribed and major international companies and investors entering the market as access to finance is improving. Our long-term market forecast is therefore improving steadily as 2017 is expected to see strong non-hydro renewable capacity and generation growth rates of 60.4% and 42.3% , respectively.
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||3.132||3.400||4.839||7.031||9.870||11.027||12.292|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||2.203||8.570||42.321||45.292||40.369||11.729||11.468|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||868.1||953.9||1,530.5||2,399.7||3,561.2||4,065.2||4,552.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||8.5||9.9||60.4||56.8||48.4||14.2||12.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Going into 2017 and against the backdrop of the hugely successful first rounds of renewables tenders in Argentina, we have upgraded our outlook for the non-hydropower renewables market further. Driven by wind and solar sectors, the total capacity is expected to increase from 953MW in 2016 to 6,661MWin 2025. This will result in an average annual growth rate of over 24% during the period.
Rising from a very low base, Argentina's solar capacity will reach 2,485MW, accounting for 37.3% of the total non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and 30.2% of the total industry's generation by 2025.
During 2016-2025, we forecast Argentina's wind sector to add around 3.15GW of new capacity. By 2025, the sector will hold a 52.2% share in the total non-hydro renewables capacity and contribute 54.5% to the total non-hydro renewables generation.
Due to the vast oversubscription of the Argentine energy ministry's RenovAr 1 power capacity tender, the government added a second tender for an additional 400MW of wind and 200MW of solar, dubbed 1.5, in November for bids that were not awarded a contract in the first round. The official second tender, RenovAr 2, is set for Q2 2017.
Besides the international companies that have participated in the renewables tenders, a number of leading international engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies have said they will make significant investment in the Argentine renewables sector over the coming years. The largest commitments so far came from multinational Gigawatt Global (USD740mn) and US AES (USD300mn), according to government data . In addition, also Siemens announced plans to support projects worth up to EUR5bn (USD5.6bn) through investments in infrastructure, mobility and energy management.
The Argentina Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Argentina. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Argentina, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Argentina, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Argentina Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentina renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentina renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Argentina, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.