BMI View : A rgentina ' s non-hydro renewables industry remains underdeveloped relative to its regional peers. That said, there is a lot of potential for growth and a number of positive industry- and country-specific developments during the past few quarters have notably improved our outlook. While a strong interest in Argentina ' s renewables auction is another positive sign, we will wait to see the amount of capacity that is contracted in the auction in November before revising up our forecast, as the tender will be a litmus test of the sector's growth pace over the coming quarters.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||3.130||3.420||4.850||6.280||6.920||7.600||8.240|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||2.200||9.130||41.880||29.450||10.290||9.820||8.360|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||868.1||960.9||1,536.1||2,096.3||2,380.8||2,671.3||2,937.7|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||8.5||10.7||59.9||36.5||13.6||12.2||10.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
This quarter we have maintained our positive albeit conservative forecast for Argentina's non-hydro renewables industry. Driven by wind and solar sectors, the total capacity will increase from 868MW in 2015 to 4,210MW in 2025. This will result in an annual growth rate of 18.0% during the period.
Rising from a very low base, Argentina's solar capacity will reach 1,167MW, accounting for 27.7% of the total non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and 18.1% of the total industry's generation by 2025.
During 2016-2025, we forecast Argentina's wind sector to add around 2.1GW of new capacity. By 2025, the sector will hold a 55.7% share in the total non-hydro renewables capacity and contribute 58.1% to the total non-hydro renewables generation.
The Argentine energy ministry's 1GW renewables tender received 123 bids for more than 6,000MW of power capacity. Wind project developers submitted 49 bids with a combined capacity of 3,468MW, while solar companies submitted 58 bids for a total of 2,834MW. Bioenergy developers made offers for 53MW.
Due to their easier access to financing, large project developers will be the biggest winners in Argentina's November reverse capacity auction - in which development financial institutions look poised to provide a large amount of the funding required. As the country's business environment is still normalising, international commercial banks are likely to wait for future tenders before committing to the market.
Central Puerto plans to spend more than USD180mn building a wind farm in Patagones Partido in Buenos Aires Province. The firm presented the results of studies for the project to local authorities. The 38-turbine wind farm, featuring capacity between 80MW and 140MW, will be 30km north of Carmen de Patagones city.
The Argentina Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Argentina. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Argentina, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Argentina, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Argentina Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentina renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentina renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Argentina, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.