BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2015, largely supported by export demand from Asia and elevated grains and oilseeds prices. In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries suc h as Thailand for sugar and from the US and Brazil for meat, but it will remain a key player in those industries. Apart fro m growing competition , Australia will have to face high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather .
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2005-2019)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Beef production growth to 2018/19: -8.8 % to 2.4mn tonnes. The negative growth over our forecast period is mainly due to high base effects (production reached a record in 2013/14) and because output will decrease over 2014/15-2016/17, as farmers rebuilt their herds.
Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 12.5% to 4.9mn tonnes. Industry consolidation will encourage economies of scale and boost output. Export demand from Asian countries for Australian sugar will also increasingly be a factor behind production growth in the coming years.
Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 17.9% to 1.2mn tonnes. Poultry consumption will prove to be the strongest over the coming years, as consumers continue to choose the meat as a healthier alternative to beef. As such, we forecast consumption per capita to rise to 47.7kg in 2019, compared with 34.1kg back in 2005.
2015 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD35.1bn; down from USD36.1bn in 2014 ; growth expected to average 1.4% annually between 2015 and 2019.
2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%; the same as we expect for 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% from 2015 to 2019.
2016 consumer price index: 2.0%...
The Australia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.