Australia Agribusiness Report

Published 24 June 2015

  • 117 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2015, largely supported by export demand from Asia and elevated grains and oilseeds prices. In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries suc h as Thailand for sugar and from the US and Brazil for meat, but it will remain a key player in those industries. Apart fro m growing competition , Australia will have to face high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather .

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Beef consumption growth to 2019: 2.7% to 817,000 tonnes. Demand growth will be largely driven by population growth, as consumption per capita will decrease over time due to health consciousness.

  • Sugar production gro wth to 2018/19: 14.0 % to 5.0mn tonnes. Industry consolidation will encourage economies of scale and boost output. Export demand from Asian countries for Australian sugar will also increasingly be a factor behind production growth in the coming years.

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 10.6 % to 2 8 .0mn tonnes. The low growth rate will come from high base effects, as Australia recorded a good crop in 2013/14. Output will grow only moderately in absolute terms in the coming years, due to limited area and yield expansion.

  • 2015 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD34.5bn, down from USD36.4 in 2014. Growth expected to average 2.1% annually between 2015 and 2019.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 2.8% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.6% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 consumer price index: 2.1% average, down from 2.4% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.5% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 central bank policy rate: 2.50%...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Australia's Major Bulk Handlers' Market Share Along The Export Grain Supply Chain
20
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
23
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
24
Sugar Outlook
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
32
Dairy Outlook
33
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
34
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
34
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
35
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
35
Table: Australia Dairy - Recent Company Developments
41
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
42
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
42
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
42
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
43
Livestock Outlook
44
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
46
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
46
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
46
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
54
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
55
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
55
Featured Analysis
56
Australia China FTA: Beef, Dairy To Benefit, Wheat Missing Out
56
Table: Australia - China Free Trade Agreement - Details For The Commodities Sector
56
Commodities Price Analysis
62
Monthly Softs Update
62
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE & BMI FORECASTS
70
Upstream Analysis
72
Asia GM Outlook
72
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
76
Asia Machinery Outlook
77
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
79
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
83
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
86
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
90
Downstream Analysis
92
Mass Grocery Retail
92
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
93
Drink
94
Alcoholic Drinks
94
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
95
Hot Drinks
96
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
97
Soft Drinks
98
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Australia 2014-2019)
98
Food
100
Food Consumption
100
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
101
Confectionery
102
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
103
Canned Food
104
Regional Overview
105
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
107
Competitive Landscape
110
Table: Australia - Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn except for employees)
110
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
112
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
112
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Sector-Specific Methodology
117

The Australia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc