Australia Agribusiness Report

Published 24 June 2015

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Australia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2015, largely supported by export demand from Asia and elevated grains and oilseeds prices. In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries suc h as Thailand for sugar and from the US and Brazil for meat, but it will remain a key player in those industries. Apart fro m growing competition , Australia will have to face high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather .

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Beef consumption growth to 2019: 2.7% to 817,000 tonnes. Demand growth will be largely driven by population growth, as consumption per capita will decrease over time due to health consciousness.

  • Sugar production gro wth to 2018/19: 14.0 % to 5.0mn tonnes. Industry consolidation will encourage economies of scale and boost output. Export demand from Asian countries for Australian sugar will also increasingly be a factor behind production growth in the coming years.

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 10.6 % to 2 8 .0mn tonnes. The low growth rate will come from high base effects, as Australia recorded a good crop in 2013/14. Output will grow only moderately in absolute terms in the coming years, due to limited area and yield expansion.

  • 2015 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD34.5bn, down from USD36.4 in 2014. Growth expected to average 2.1% annually between 2015 and 2019.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 2.8% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.6% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 consumer price index: 2.1% average, down from 2.4% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.5% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 central bank policy rate: 2.50%...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Australia's Major Bulk Handlers' Market Share Along The Export Grain Supply Chain
20
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
24
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
24
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
27
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
32
Dairy Outlook
34
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
35
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
35
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
36
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
36
Table: Australia Dairy - Recent Company Developments
42
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
43
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
43
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
43
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
44
Livestock Outlook
45
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
56
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
57
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Australia 2009-2014)
57
Featured Analysis
58
Australia China FTA: Beef, Dairy To Benefit, Wheat Missing Out
58
Table: Australia - China Free Trade Agreement - Details For The Commodities Sector
58
Commodities Price Analysis
64
Monthly Softs Strategy
64
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
73
Monthly Grains Strategy
74
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
81
Upstream Analysis
82
Asia GM Outlook
82
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
84
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
85
Downstream Analysis
90
Mass Grocery Retail
90
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
91
Drink
92
Alcoholic Drinks
92
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
93
Hot Drinks
94
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
95
Soft Drinks
96
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Australia 2014-2019)
96
Food
98
Food Consumption
98
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
99
Confectionery
100
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
101
Canned Food
102
Regional Overview
103
Competitive Landscape
109
Table: Australia - Major Agribusiness Companies
109
Demographic Forecast
110
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
111
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
111
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Sector-Specific Methodology
116

The Australia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Australia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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