Australia Food & Drink Report

Published 01 May 2015

  • 139 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We hold a below-consensus view on the short-term outlook for Australia's economy, but see opportunities in the food and drink sector. For example, the country's mass grocery retail sector faces some short-term challenges, but we believe it remains a reasonably attractive proposition for industry players. Discount formats in particular demonstrate strong opportunities for growth. We see premiumisation as the main driver of growth in non-carbonated soft-drinks. Meanwhile our low growth forecasts for private consumption have led us to downgrade our expectations for overall food consumption. Per capita consumption will grow even more slowly than the total, reflecting demographic concerns.

We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth in Australia to come in at 2.3% in 2015, versus consensus expectations of 2.5% as the ongoing terms of trade shock continues, with economic weakness likely to extend to the real estate and domestic services sectors. Indeed, lower disposable income growth will expose the lack of affordability of the domestic housing market. The agriculture and export-focussed industries are likely to benefit from a weaker Australian dollar.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = +1.0%; forecast 2014 to 2019 = +1.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

  • 2015 soft drinks sales = +2.4%; forecast 2014 to 2019 = +2.7% CAGR.

  • 2015 alcoholic drinks sales = +2.2%; forecast 2014 to 2019 = +2.5% CAGR.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales = +3.8%; forecast 2014 to 2019 = +4.3%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Arla Foods Looks for Exponential Growth in Australia : In early 2015 Arla Foods entered a joint venture with Australia's largest cheese importer, F. Mayer Imports, in a bid to multiply its business in the country 'five-fold'. The company said it intends to increase revenue generated in Australia to DKK1bn by 2020, compared to its current sales in the market of DKK200mn. The joint venture, Arla Foods...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
18
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2012-2019)
20
Canned Food
21
Drink
22
Alcoholic Drinks
22
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
23
Hot Drinks
24
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
25
Soft Drinks
26
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Australia 2014-2019)
26
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
29
Trade
30
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2019)
37
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
40
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
43
Market Overview
44
Food
44
Food Processing
44
Functional Foods
45
Confectionery
45
Canned Food
46
Drink
46
Alcoholic Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
48
Soft Drinks
49
Mass Grocery Retail
49
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets (Australia 2006-2009)
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Australia 2006-2015)
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Australia 2006-2015)
53
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Food
54
Drink
65
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Competitive Landscape
82
Table: Key Players In Australia's Food & Drink Sector
82
Table: Key Players In Australia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
82
Company Profile
83
Dairy Farmers
83
Heinz Australia
85
Lion Nathan
88
Carlton & United Breweries
91
Coopers Brewery
95
The Coca Cola Company
98
Table: The Coca-Cola Co Financial Results
106
Aldi
107
Wesfarmers
110
FoodWorks
113
Woolworths
115
Global Industry Overview
119
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
126
Demographic Forecast
128
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
129
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
129
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
131
Glossary
133
Food & Drink
133
Mass Grocery Retail
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Sector-Specific Methodology
136
Sources
136
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
137
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
138
Table: Weighting
139

The Australia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Australia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Australia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc