Australia Freight Transport Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Australia Freight Transport Report

BMI View: In 2015, the three freight modes in Australia are set to perform similarly with the annual outperformer in terms of growth expe cted to be rail freight (2.86%) . Road will continue to significantly outperform the other modes in terms of total tonnage handled . Trade g rowth will remain relatively stunted in 2015 due to a combination of falling export revenues from key iron and coal markets and dwindling import demand owing to subdued labour market factors .

Australia's top export partner continues to be China by a large margin. China's export sector continued its surge in February 2015, with growth accelerating to a blistering 48.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) pace. s. However, the positive contribution to export earnings from the ramp-up in production from Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector will not be able to offset the negative impact from falling export revenues from the key iron and coal markets.

We expect moderate growth in the Australian road freight sector as the sector is poised to perform in a similar manner to the other freight modes in Australia in 2015. Consumer demand could be buoyed by a cut in interest rates, however, this will be predicated on a surge in Australia's unemployment rate in January 2015 to 6.4% (from 6.1% previously). Although Australia's freight transport sector is geared toward the export of commodities, which mainly rely on the rail freight network, road freight will continue to outpace volumes carried by rail freight over the forecast period to 2019

Coal is to be hindered by low global coal prices and Chinese import restrictions over the coming years. Indeed, we forecast Australia's coal production to average growth of 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) over 2015-2018, down from 3.4% in 2014, highlighting the problems that face the Australian rail freight mode over the short term. Meanwhile, Chevron's exit from shale gas activity in Australia is yet another sign of a weakening in investor interest in the country's oil...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Freight Transport
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Trade Forecast
14
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2012-2019)
16
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
18
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013)
18
Road Freight Forecast
19
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
21
Rail Freight Forecast
21
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
23
Air Freight Forecast
23
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
25
Company Profile
26
Toll Group
26
Pacific National
30
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
34
Qantas Freight
39
Political Outlook
44
Domestic Politics
44
Long-Term Political Outlook
46
Table: TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
50
Oil Price Outlook
52
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
52
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
52
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
53
Macroeconomic Forecasts
55
Economic Analysis
55
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2019)
60
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
67

The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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