Australia Freight Transport Report

Published 10 February 2015

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Australia Freight Transport Report

Australia's current account picture is gradually improving despite deteriorating terms of trade, the result of higher export volumes and lower income outflows, the former providing welcome news for the Australia freight industry. Going forward we maintain that a current account surplus is likely as the Australian dollar depreciates, but this will increasingly be driven by lower imports, to the detriment of the domestic economy.

Australia's current account position continues to gradually improve, and we maintain our view that a current account surplus within the next few years (we are forecasting a broad balance by 2017). There have been two dynamics in play that have been contributing to the improvement in Australia's current account deficit over recent years. Firstly, the trade balance has gradually improved as commodity shipments have surged in volume terms, while import growth has been subdued owing to the weaker Australian dollar and slower investment growth. We expect these trends to continue to lead to an improvement in the trade account, even as export values struggle with the impact of lower iron ore and coal prices.

The outperforming freight mode is set to be road freight during 2015 with year-on-year (y-o-y) growth set to come in at 2.70%, edging ahead of air freight (2.30%) and rail freight (1.15%). Some of the modes are set to register improved growth on 12 months previous (such as road freight and certain ports), while others will see their performance falter on 2014 levels (for instance, air and rail freight).

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.30%.

  • 2015 rail freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 1.15%.

  • 2015 port of Melbourne tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 1.60%.

  • 2015 port of Sydney tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 1.42%.

  • 2015 road freight is forecast to increase by 2.70%.

  • 2015 total real trade growth is forecast to grow by 3.34%.

Key Industry Trends

Rutila Resources In...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Road Freight
19
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
21
Rail Freight
21
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
23
Maritime Freight
23
Table: Maritime Freight (Australia 2011-2018)
24
Trade
24
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2011-2018)
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2011-2018)
25
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012
26
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Air
38
Rail
39
Maritime
39
Road
40
Company Profile
42
Toll Group
42
Pacific National
46
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
50
Qantas Freight
55
Australian National Lines
60
Political Outlook
64
Opposition Parties Increasingly Less Supportive Stance
65
Cross-Bench Challenges To Dilute And Erode Legislative Changes
66
Long-Term Political Outlook
67
Table: Political Overview
71
Macroeconomic Forecasts
72
Economic Analysis
72
Chinese Reform Efforts To Weigh On Export Growth
73
Consumption Growth To Slow Further
74
Residential Investment To Fall Short
75
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2009-2018)
76
Demographic Forecast
77
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
78
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
79
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
80
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
80
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sector-Specific Methodology
82
Sources
83

The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc