BMI View: We believe our previous forecast understated the size of Australia's software and IT services segments, and as such historical data was revised upwards in Q116. We also adopted a more bearish analysis of IT hardware spending trends in 2015 this quarter, and now believe the market contracted as a result of a decline in tablet volumes after the rapid proliferation of ownership 2011-2014, a trend that was exacerbated by economic uncertainty and currency depreciation. In 2016 depreciation will continue to present challenges, particularly for retail hardware vendors, but the outlook brightens as the forecast period progresses, and we highlight opportunities including premium retail hardware spending, cloud computing and Internet of Things solutions and services. We forecast a CAGR of 4.2% for IT market spending over 2015-2019, but caution there is downside to our outlook due to the potential for a hard landing in China, though this is not our core scenario.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: AUD7.8bn in 2016 to AUD8.2bn in 2019. The market will recover from a sharp downturn in the tablet market in 2015, with significant opportunities identified in the premium device market over the medium term, but the growth rate will be relatively subdued due to market maturity.
Software Sales: AUD9.4bn in 2016 to AUD10.5bn in 2019. Enterprise application demand growth from small- and medium-sized enterprises as the software-as-a-service supply increases will be the main growth driver, while large enterprise spending growth will be more concentrated in complex solutions in a few verticals.
IT Services Sales: AUD22.0bn in 2016 to AUD25.7bn in 2019. IT services will be the fastest growth area of the IT market over the medium term, with cloud services the key growth driver.
|Tablet Boom And Bust Behind Hardware Spending Volatility|
|IT Market Demand Growth By Segment|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Australia Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Australia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Australia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Australian IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Australia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.