BMI View: Our forecasts remain unchanged in Q117. The absolute growth of the population and the economy should ensure that premiums in both segments of Australia's large, sophisticated and competitive insurance sector grow in real terms. However, it is easy to identify factors that limit growth in both segments. In the life segment, the insurers are to a certain extent in competition with Australia's massive superannuation funds, and are hard pressed to profit from the sale of group life products to the super funds. In the non-life segment, price competition is restraining the development of the important motor and property insurance sub-sectors.
|Source: National Sources/BMI|
|Gross life premiums written, AUDbn||47.40||62.30||62.60||64.30||65.80||67.50||69.30||71.20|
|Gross life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||12.3||31.6||0.4||2.7||2.3||2.6||2.7||2.7|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||45.70||56.20||47.00||47.50||48.30||46.10||45.00||46.30|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||4.6||22.9||-16.3||1.1||1.6||-4.4||-2.4||2.7|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUDbn||58.90||61.80||65.00||67.70||70.70||73.60||76.60||79.60|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||6.2||4.9||5.3||4.1||4.3||4.2||4.0||4.0|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||56.80||55.70||48.80||50.10||51.90||50.30||49.80||51.70|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-1.1||-2.1||-12.2||2.5||3.6||-2.9||-1.1||4.0|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Weather events in mid-2016 have resulted in significant claims for the major property insurers. The risks have been laid off with reinsurers. It remains to be seen whether the increased claims are also passed back to clients in the form of higher premiums. Motor insurers are generally upbeat about plans of the government of New South Wales (NSW) to reform that state's Compulsory Third Party (CTP) motor insurance scheme. The changes should make the scheme cheaper and more affordable for motorists. The new system should include a no-fault first-party, defined benefits scheme - with access to common law damages for more serious injuries.
Because of the importance of group life products that are provided to major superannuation funds, we remain of the view that the growth of superannuation will be the key factor driving the growth of the life segment over the course of the forecast period.
The Australia Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Australia Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Australia's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.