BMI View: As of early 2016, the general trends for Australia's insurance sector are positive. Thanks mainly to net immigration, the population is growing. This will contribute to continued growth in overall economic activity through the forecast period, even if the pace of expansion is slower than in recent years. The life segment should benefit from the further development of superannuation funds, from innovation by life insurers, and from increased demand for annuities and other retirement income solutions. The non-life segment should benefit from volume growth - although players in many sub-sectors will continue to face downwards pressure on prices. The main exception to this is the health insurance sub-sector, where insurers will benefit from rising volumes and, thanks to inflation in healthcare costs, rates.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Gross life premiums written, AUDbn||42.19||47.36||62.32||63.88||65.40||66.89||68.34||69.75|
|Gross life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||-3.7||12.3||31.6||2.5||2.4||2.3||2.2||2.1|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||43.69||45.70||56.16||47.27||41.20||41.81||44.42||45.34|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-3.4||4.6||22.9||-15.8||-12.8||1.5||6.3||2.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUDbn||55.45||58.88||61.75||64.77||67.96||71.19||74.43||77.66|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||8.1||6.2||4.9||4.9||4.9||4.8||4.5||4.3|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||57.43||56.82||55.66||47.93||42.81||44.49||48.38||50.48|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||8.4||-1.1||-2.1||-13.9||-10.7||3.9||8.7||4.3|
Key Updates And Forecasts
The growth of the non-life segment continues to be underpinned by the expansion of private health insurance. Demand for health insurance is being boosted by tax incentives, the growth of the population and the ageing of the population. We have broadly maintained our forecasts from last quarter.
For now we are maintaining our view that life premiums will rise by around 2% annually through the forecast period. However, the latest data published (in relation to the year to September 2015) by regulator APRA indicate that the risks to our forecasts are to the upside. We believe that premiums have been boosted in the recent past because of the attractiveness of life insurers' offerings relative to other investment opportunities. The local stock market has been volatile. Cash rates are low. Investment real estate is, or is perceived to be, expensive by many yardsticks.
We have increased our forecasts for motor vehicle insurance in order to recognise innovation by the insurers in terms of product design and/or distribution. We note, though, that pressure on prices in the motor vehicle insurance sub-sector remains in a downwards direction: this is true of most of the non-life segment outside health insurance.
The Australia Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Australia Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Australia's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.