BMI View: We continue to hold a broadly positive outlook for Australia's large and mature insurance market. Demographic trends, including an ageing and expanding population, will continue to drive growth in demand for various life insurance products, including traditional life cover and later - in - life savings products , particularly through the development of superannuation funds. In the non-life sector, increases in household income levels will stimulate growth, despite fierce competition amongst the many non-life providers. Health, motor and property will remain the key non-life sub-sectors, though we also expect to see growth in smaller lines, such as credit and financial guarantee insurance, reflecting the diversity of this well established market.
|Gross life premiums written, AUDbn||47.36||62.32||63.72||65.20||66.68||68.19||69.71||71.23|
|Gross life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||12.3||31.6||2.3||2.3||2.3||2.3||2.2||2.2|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||45.70||56.16||47.86||43.32||41.67||44.33||45.31||46.30|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||4.6||22.9||-14.8||-9.5||-3.8||6.4||2.2||2.2|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUDbn||58.88||61.75||64.65||67.75||70.84||73.99||77.16||80.46|
|Gross non-life premiums written, AUD, % y-o-y||6.2||4.9||4.7||4.8||4.6||4.4||4.3||4.3|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||56.82||55.66||48.56||45.02||44.27||48.09||50.16||52.30|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-1.1||-2.1||-12.8||-7.3||-1.7||8.6||4.3||4.3|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Premiums in the private health insurance segment are expected to rise by an average of 5.59% from 1 April 2016 following intervention from the Ministry of Health requiring insurers to lower rates increases or justify the rise. The health insurance sector is under scrutiny as the government attempts to overhaul the sector, with consumer advocacy group Choice recently criticising a number of health insurers for providing 'junk' products.
Demonstrating Australia's vulnerability to the costs of natural disasters, the Insurance Council of Australia recently reported that the cost of damage from three bushfires and a tornado over the summer will together cost insurance agencies over AUD550mn which will likely translate to premium increases over the next year.
At present we are broadly maintaining our current forecasts for annual average growth in premiums in the non-life sector of 4.5% between 2016 and 2020 (in local currency terms) with premiums increasing from AUD67.7bn to AUD80.5bn.
Slower growth will be seen in the life sector, where we are forecasting annual average premium growth of 2.3% over the forecast period, indicating life insurance premiums written will increase from AUD65.2bn in 2016 to AUD71.2bn in 2020.
The Australia Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Australia Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Australia's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.