Australia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Australia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Australia is well on course to become the largest LNG exporter in the world as it awaits the commencement of three new LNG projects over the next two to three years. The country will overtake Qatar by 2019. The heavy volume of existing gas reserves tied to exports have driven up domestic gas prices and increases risks of a supply shortage at home, though government plans to increase investment in gas distribution infrastructure and make more supplies available for local consumption by accelerating onshore developments provide cause for optimism.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DIIS, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 416.3 374.1 383.0 387.4 393.0 398.1 396.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 577.5 455.2 373.3 369.5 365.8 362.2 358.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 957.9 959.3 968.9 979.2 988.9 998.7 1,008.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 62.7 77.1 111.1 131.1 139.0 148.7 151.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 38.8 40.0 41.2 42.4 43.7 44.5 45.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • In its H116 earnings, Santos booked an impairment charge of USD1.0bn on its Gladstone LNG project due to slower-than-anticipated ramp-up in gas output and increase in the price of third-party gas supplying the terminal.

  • Australia is on course to overtake Qatar by 2019 to become the largest LNG exporter in the world. We expect to see three new projects come online over the next two-three years, namely Chevron's Wheatstone LNG, Inpex's Ichthys LNG and Shell's Prelude FLNG offshore Western Australia.

  • While we see limited scope for large-scale refining capacity additions in the coming years, small-scale projects targeting provincial fuel distribution opportunities will provide a small boost to total refining capacity over the coming years. One such example is ExxonMobil's proposed expansion of its Altona refinery in Victoria by 10,000b/d.

  • Proposed reforms in the domestic gas sector at the August 2016 COAG Energy Council meeting could see improvements made over subsequent years, including greater transparency over pricing, better gas distribution infrastructure nationwide. State ministers also agreed to work on lifting the blanket ban on fracking activities, with the exception of Victoria.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2014-2019)
15
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Australia - Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2014-2019)
28
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2020-2025)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2020-2025)
33
Refining
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2020-2025)
35
Refined Fuels Consumption
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2014-2019)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2020-2025)
38
Gas Consumption
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
43
Crude Oil
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
46
Refined Fuels
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
49
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
51
Industry Risk Reward Index
52
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
52
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
54
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
55
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
56
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
57
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
58
Upstream Index - Overview
58
Upstream Index - Rewards
58
Upstream Index - Risks
58
Downstream Index - Overview
59
Market Overview
60
Australia Energy Market Overview
60
Regulatory Regime
60
Fiscal Regime
62
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
62
Licensing Rounds
62
Table: 2015 Petroleum Acreage Release
62
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
65
Table: Oil Refineries
65
LNG Terminals
65
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Australian Refining Capacity By Player
68
Company Profile
69
Santos
69
Latest Updates
69
Table: Major Current Assets
70
Table: Santos Limited - Key Financial Data
70
Woodside Petroleum
71
Latest Updates
71
Table: Major Current Assets
72
Table: Woodside Petroleum - Key Financial Data
72
Regional Overview
73
Asia Regional Overview
73
Glossary
81
Table: Glossary Of Terms
81
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Source
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
87
Table: Weighting
88

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.