Australia Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 June 2015

  • 207 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Australia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade. However, we see waning investment sentiment, which will slow growth momentum. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on refined fuels imports as domestic production will not be sufficient to meet rising domestic demand.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: ADIS, EIA, BMI.
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 414.4 437.0 458.7 470.4 476.0 483.6 490.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 609.4 577.5 519.8 426.2 421.9 421.9 421.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,155.2 1,167.4 1,179.4 1,190.2 1,202.2 1,212.8 1,223.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 51.5 53.5 64.5 82.9 99.2 103.8 105.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 36.3 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.5 39.9 40.5

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Crude oil and liquids production will continue to trend downwards over our forecast periods as discoveries have not been able to sufficiently replace declining production from mature fields. However, Apache's offshore discovery in the Canning Basin could open up a new oil province that poses upside risk to our forecasts from 2018.

  • Gas production will significantly increase between 2015 and 2018 as developments backing new LNG export projects come online. Thereafter, growth will slow as prohibitively high development costs and the difficulty of carrying gas from gas-rich Western Australia and Northern Territories to eastern Australia restrict investment appetite.

  • These projects have been supported by investments made over 2010-2014 when oil prices were more favourable. Therefore, if the current low oil price...

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
12
Upstream Exploration
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Chevron's Offshore Gas Discoveries, 2012-Present
14
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
19
Upstream Projects
23
Table: Australia Major Upstream Projects
23
Upstream Production - Oil
28
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2013-2018)
28
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2019-2024)
28
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2019-2024)
31
Refining
36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2019-2024)
36
Refined Oil Production
38
Refined Fuels Consumption
41
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2013-2018)
41
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2019-2024)
41
Gas Consumption
48
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
48
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2019-2024)
48
Trade - Oil
54
Crude Oil Trade
54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
54
Refined Oil Trade
58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
58
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2013-2018)
62
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2019-2024)
62
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
63
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
63
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
63
LNG
65
Industry Risk Reward Index
68
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
68
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
69
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
69
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
71
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
71
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
74
Australia Upstream Index - Overview
74
Australia Upstream Index - Rewards
74
Australia Upstream Index - Risks
74
Australia Downstream Index - Overview
75
Market Overview
76
Australia Energy Market Overview
76
Regulatory Regime
77
Fiscal Regime
79
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
79
Licensing Rounds
79
Table: 2014 Offshore Petroleum Acreage Release
79
Table: 2013 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release And Results
82
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
84
Oil Refineries
84
Table: Downstream Projects
84
LNG Terminals
84
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
84
Gas Pipelines
87
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in Australia
87
Competitive Landscape
88
Competitive Landscape Summary
88
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
90
Table: Key Upstream Players
90
Table: Key Downstream Players
91
Company Profile
92
Woodside Petroleum
92
Santos
98
BHP Billiton
106
Apache Corporation
111
Chevron Australia
114
ConocoPhillips
119
ExxonMobil Australia
124
Royal Dutch Shell
129
BG Group Australia
135
Other Summaries
139
Regional Overview
157
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
157
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
157
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
160
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
161
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
165
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
166
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
168
Global Industry Overview
171
Oil Price Outlook
171
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
171
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
172
Appendix
179
Asia - Regional Appendix
179
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
183
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
184
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
185
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
186
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
187
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
188
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
189
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
190
Australia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
191
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
191
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
191
Australia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
193
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
194
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
195
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
197
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
197
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
198
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
199
Glossary
200
Table: Glossary Of Terms
200
Methodology
202
Industry Forecast Methodology
202
Source
204
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
204
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
206
Table: Weighting
207

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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