Australia Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 June 2015

  • 207 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Australia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade. However, we see waning investment sentiment, which will slow growth momentum. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on refined fuels imports as domestic production will not be sufficient to meet rising domestic demand.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: ADIS, EIA, BMI.
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 414.4 437.0 458.7 470.4 476.0 483.6 490.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 609.4 577.5 519.8 426.2 421.9 421.9 421.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,155.2 1,167.4 1,179.4 1,190.2 1,202.2 1,212.8 1,223.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 51.5 53.5 64.5 82.9 99.2 103.8 105.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 36.3 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.5 39.9 40.5

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Crude oil and liquids production will continue to trend downwards over our forecast periods as discoveries have not been able to sufficiently replace declining production from mature fields. However, Apache's offshore discovery in the Canning Basin could open up a new oil province that poses upside risk to our forecasts from 2018.

  • Gas production will significantly increase between 2015 and 2018 as developments backing new LNG export projects come online. Thereafter, growth will slow as prohibitively high development costs and the difficulty of carrying gas from gas-rich Western Australia and Northern Territories to eastern Australia restrict investment appetite.

  • These projects have been supported by investments made over 2010-2014 when oil prices were more favourable. Therefore, if the current low oil price...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
10
Oil & Gas SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Chevron's Offshore Gas Discoveries, 2012-Present
13
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
18
Upstream Projects
22
Table: Australia Major Upstream Projects
22
Upstream Production - Oil
27
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2019-2024)
27
Upstream Production - Gas
30
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2019-2024)
30
Refining
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2019-2024)
35
Refined Oil Production
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2013-2018)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2019-2024)
40
Gas Consumption
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2019-2024)
47
Trade - Oil
53
Crude Oil Trade
53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
53
Refined Oil Trade
57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
57
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2013-2018)
61
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2019-2024)
61
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
62
LNG
64
Industry Risk Reward Index
67
Asia Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
67
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
67
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Index
69
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
71
Downstream Support
73
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
75
Australia Upstream Index - Overview
75
Australia Upstream Index - Rewards
75
Australia Upstream Index - Risks
75
Australia Downstream Index - Overview
76
Market Overview
77
Australia Energy Market Overview
77
Overview/State Role
79
Government Policy
80
Licensing Rounds
83
Table: 2014 Offshore Petroleum Acreage Release
83
Table: 2013 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release And Results
85
International Energy Relations
87
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
89
Oil Refineries
89
Table: Downstream Projects
89
LNG Terminals
91
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
92
Table: Buyers Of Gorgon LNG
96
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Wheatstone LNG
97
Table: Long-Term Buyers Of Ichthys LNG
101
Gas Pipelines
106
Competitive Landscape
108
Competitive Landscape Summary
108
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
110
Table: Key Upstream Players
110
Table: Key Downstream Players
111
Company Profile
112
Woodside Petroleum
112
Santos
118
BHP Billiton
125
Apache Corporation
130
Chevron Australia
133
ConocoPhillips
138
ExxonMobil Australia
143
Royal Dutch Shell
148
BG Group Australia
154
Other Summaries
158
Regional Overview
176
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
176
Upstream Production: A Weaker Market Ahead
176
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
179
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
181
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
183
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
184
Markets To Watch: India & Indonesia
186
Global Industry Overview
189
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
189
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
194
Appendix
196
Asia - Regional Appendix
196
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
196
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
197
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
198
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
198
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
200
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
201
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
202
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
203
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
204
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
205
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
206
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
207
Australia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
208
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
208
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
208
Australia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
210
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
210
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
211
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
212
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
213
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
214
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
215
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
216
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
216
Glossary
218
Table: Glossary Of Terms
218
Methodology
220
Industry Forecast Methodology
220
Source
222
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
222
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
224
Table: Weighting
225

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc