Australia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Australia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Australia is on course to overtake Qatar as the largest LNG exporter in the world by 2019. The recent start-up of Chevron's Gorgon LNG marks the country's seventh active export terminal, with three more projects in various stages of construction. The country will remain a heavy importer of refined fuels, due to substantial cutbacks in domestic refining capacity, and given limited scope for any new additions within the next decade, this looks set to continue through to 2025.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DIIS, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 428.9 451.6 463.4 469.0 476.7 483.6 480.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 61.5 75.0 103.3 131.9 141.2 149.7 155.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 36.5 37.6 38.4 39.0 39.4 39.9 40.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 577.5 519.8 426.2 421.9 421.9 421.9 421.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,167.4 1,179.4 1,190.2 1,202.2 1,212.8 1,223.5 1,234.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • An upsurge in liquids output will temporarily swing Australia's crude oil output into a surplus, turning it into a net importer over 2016-2024. However, rising demand and falling production will reverse the trend from 2025.

  • Australia is on course to overtake Qatar as the world's largest LNG exporter by 2019, according to our forecasts.

  • The start-up of Chevron's Gorgon LNG means that Australia now has seven active LNG export terminals in operation, with total export capacity of 88.6bcm.

  • While a substantial deficit in refining capacity renders the country to rely on refined fuels imports to meet demand, we do not see scope for major capacity additions, due to high project cost, rising competition in the regional exports market and limited growth opportunities offered within a saturated domestic market.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Australia - Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2014-2019)
32
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2020-2025)
32
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2020-2025)
36
Refining
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2014-2019)
39
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2020-2025)
39
Refined Fuels Consumption
40
Latest Updates
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2014-2019)
43
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2020-2025)
43
Gas Consumption
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2020-2025)
48
Trade - Oil
49
Crude Oil
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
52
Refined Fuels
52
Latest Updates
52
Structural Trends
52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
54
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
55
Latest Updates
55
Structural Trends
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
57
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
57
Industry Risk Reward Index
58
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
58
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
59
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
59
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
62
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
62
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
64
Australia Upstream Index - Overview
64
Australia Upstream Index - Rewards
64
Australia Upstream Index - Risks
64
Australia Downstream Index - Overview
65
Market Overview
66
Australia Energy Market Overview
66
Regulatory Regime
66
Fiscal Regime
67
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
67
Licensing Rounds
67
Table: 2015 Petroleum Acreage Release
68
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
70
Table: Oil Refineries
70
LNG Terminals
70
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
70
Gas Pipelines
71
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in Australia
71
Competitive Landscape
72
Competitive Landscape Summary
72
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
74
Table: Key Upstream Players
74
Table: Key Downstream Players
75
Company Profile
76
Apache Corporation
76
BG Group Australia
79
BHP Billiton
83
Chevron Australia
90
ConocoPhillips
95
ExxonMobil Australia
100
Royal Dutch Shell
105
Santos
112
Woodside Petroleum
119
Other Summaries
125
Regional Overview
145
Industry Trend Analysis
145
Glossary
153
Table: Glossary Of Terms
153
Methodology
155
Industry Forecast Methodology
155
Source
157
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
157
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
159
Table: Weighting
160

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.