BMI View : The start-up of several mega LNG export ventures over 2015-2018 will propel Australia to overtake Malaysia to become the world's second largest exporter of LNG in 2016. That said, longer-term production and exports growth will be markedly slower post-2018, as low oil prices and a well-supplied global LNG market hinder investment in new projects. Although an upsurge in liquids output from large gas developments will temporarily swing Australia's historical crude deficit into a surplus, natural declines and rising consumption will restore the country's net importer status by the end of our forecast period to 2024.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DIIS, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||395.5||428.9||451.6||463.4||469.0||476.7||483.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||60.8||61.5||65.2||79.3||98.3||105.2||106.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||35.7||36.5||37.6||38.4||39.0||39.4||39.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||609.4||577.5||519.8||426.2||421.9||421.9||421.9|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||1,155.2||1,167.4||1,179.4||1,190.2||1,202.2||1,212.8||1,223.5|
The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:
An upsurge in liquids output from gas developments associated with large export ventures will see Australia's crude oil and liquids production remain on an uptrend over 2015-2019. However, production will decline thereafter as the pace of new discoveries lag natural declines at existing fields.
The start-up of several mega LNG export projects over 2015-2018 will propel Australia to become the world's second largest LNG exporter from 2016, behind Qatar.
Although we forecast strong growth in natural gas production and exports over 2015-2018, growth rate will be markedly slower in the longer-term as high project costs, low oil prices and a persistent supply overhang in the global LNG market hinder investment in new LNG projects.
Casper Energy's plan to build a refinery in Gladstone, Queensland will be Australia's first newly constructed refinery since the 1960s. The facility's small-scale, low-cost structure is ideally suited to be competitive in the current low oil price environment. We expect the facility to come online in 2021.
The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.