Australia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Australia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : The start-up of several mega LNG export ventures over 2015-2018 will propel Australia to overtake Malaysia to become the world's second largest exporter of LNG in 2016. That said, longer-term production and exports growth will be markedly slower post-2018, as low oil prices and a well-supplied global LNG market hinder investment in new projects. Although an upsurge in liquids output from large gas developments will temporarily swing Australia's historical crude deficit into a surplus, natural declines and rising consumption will restore the country's net importer status by the end of our forecast period to 2024.

Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DIIS, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 395.5 428.9 451.6 463.4 469.0 476.7 483.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 60.8 61.5 65.2 79.3 98.3 105.2 106.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 35.7 36.5 37.6 38.4 39.0 39.4 39.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 609.4 577.5 519.8 426.2 421.9 421.9 421.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,155.2 1,167.4 1,179.4 1,190.2 1,202.2 1,212.8 1,223.5
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:

  • An upsurge in liquids output from gas developments associated with large export ventures will see Australia's crude oil and liquids production remain on an uptrend over 2015-2019. However, production will decline thereafter as the pace of new discoveries lag natural declines at existing fields.

  • The start-up of several mega LNG export projects over 2015-2018 will propel Australia to become the world's second largest LNG exporter from 2016, behind Qatar.

  • Although we forecast strong growth in natural gas production and exports over 2015-2018, growth rate will be markedly slower in the longer-term as high project costs, low oil prices and a persistent supply overhang in the global LNG market hinder investment in new LNG projects.

  • Casper Energy's plan to build a refinery in Gladstone, Queensland will be Australia's first newly constructed refinery since the 1960s. The facility's small-scale, low-cost structure is ideally suited to be competitive in the current low oil price environment. We expect the facility to come online in 2021.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Australia 2019-2024)
10
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
15
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Australia Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
31
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2019-2024)
31
Upstream Production - Gas
34
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2019-2024)
34
Refining
38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Australia 2019-2024)
38
Refined Oil Production
40
Refined Fuels Consumption
42
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2013-2018)
42
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2019-2024)
42
Gas Consumption
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2013-2018)
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2019-2024)
47
Trade - Oil
51
Crude Oil Trade
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
51
Refined Oil Trade
55
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
55
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
55
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2013-2018)
59
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Australia 2019-2024)
59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
61
Industry Risk Reward Index
64
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
64
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
65
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
65
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
68
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
68
Australia - Risk/Reward Index
70
Australia Upstream Index - Overview
70
Australia Upstream Index - Rewards
70
Australia Upstream Index - Risks
70
Australia Downstream Index - Overview
71
Market Overview
72
Australia Energy Market Overview
72
Regulatory Regime
72
Fiscal Regime
74
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
74
Licensing Rounds
74
Table: 2015 Petroleum Acreage Release
74
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
77
Oil Refineries
77
Table: Downstream Projects
77
LNG Terminals
77
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
77
Gas Pipelines
78
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in Australia
78
Competitive Landscape
79
Competitive Landscape Summary
79
Table: Key Players - Australia Oil & Gas Sector
81
Table: Key Upstream Players
81
Table: Key Downstream Players
82
Company Profile
83
Woodside Petroleum
83
Santos
89
BHP Billiton
97
Apache Corporation
103
Chevron Australia
106
ConocoPhillips
111
ExxonMobil Australia
116
Royal Dutch Shell
121
BG Group Australia
128
Other Summaries
132
Regional Overview
152
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
152
Global Industry Overview
157
Global Energy Market Overview
157
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
157
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
160
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
161
Appendix
163
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
163
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
163
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
164
Asia - Regional Appendix
165
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
165
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
166
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
167
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
168
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
169
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
170
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
171
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
172
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
173
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
174
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
175
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
176
Australia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
177
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
177
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
177
Australia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
178
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
178
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
179
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
180
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
181
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2013-2018)
183
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Australia 2019-2024)
183
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2013-2018)
184
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Australia 2019-2024)
185
Glossary
186
Table: Glossary Of Terms
186
Methodology
188
Industry Forecast Methodology
188
Source
190
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
190
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
192
Table: Weighting
193

The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.