Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 27 July 2015

  • 138 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Australian pharmaceutical market is expected to continue on a moderate growth trajectory over our forecast period. This is mainly explained by rising chronic disease burden as well as government funding to list new medicines under the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme . However, revenue opportunities for multinational drugmakers in Australia will remain limited by cost containment measures. This was accentuated in the Sixth Pharmacy Community Agreement passed by authorities in June 2015, which drives a downgrade in our pharmaceutical market forecast for the country. Among the measures outlined, the move to allow biosimilar substitution in an attempt to curb spending on biologic drugs poses additional risks to innovative drugmakers with a strong portfolio of biologic treatments.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AUD13.48bn (USD12.15bn) in 2014 to AUD13.98bn (USD10.35bn) in 2015; +3.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AUD151.84bn (USD136.85bn) in 2014 to AUD156.99bn (USD116.18bn) in 2015; +3.4% in local currency terms and -15.1% in US dollar terms, due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Risk/Rewards Index: In Q415 Australia retains its ranking position as the third most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 65.8 out of 100), after Japan (73.3) and South Korea (66.2). Australia's score is driven by a relatively high drug spending per capita, a large pensionable population and robust population growth but dragged down by poor sector growth.

Key Trends And Developments

July 2015

  • Medicines Australia raised concerns over increasing alarmist and misguided information spread by the media on negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and its impact on drugs prices in the country. In an open letter...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Austria 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Austria 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Austria 2013-2019)
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Austria 2010-2019)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
36
Austria Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Healthcare Sector
46
Table: Healthcare Resources (Austria 2009-2014)
48
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Austria 2009-2014)
48
Table: Healthcare Activity (Austria 2009-2014)
49
Research & Development
49
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
51
Intellectual Property Issues
53
Competitive Landscape
56
Research-Based Industry
56
Pharmaceutical Distribution
58
Table: Members Of ARGE Pharmazeutika, 2011
59
Pharmaceutical Retail
61
Table: Pharmacy Outlets by Type, 2005-2009
62
Table: Pharmacy Outlets by State, 2005-2009
62
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Austria 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Austria 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Austria 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (Austria 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Austria 1990-2025)
66
Glossary
68
Methodology
70
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
70
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
70
Notes On Methodology
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
72
Index Overview
73
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
73
Indicator Weightings
74

The Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Australia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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