Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 27 July 2015

  • 138 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Australian pharmaceutical market is expected to continue on a moderate growth trajectory over our forecast period. This is mainly explained by rising chronic disease burden as well as government funding to list new medicines under the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme . However, revenue opportunities for multinational drugmakers in Australia will remain limited by cost containment measures. This was accentuated in the Sixth Pharmacy Community Agreement passed by authorities in June 2015, which drives a downgrade in our pharmaceutical market forecast for the country. Among the measures outlined, the move to allow biosimilar substitution in an attempt to curb spending on biologic drugs poses additional risks to innovative drugmakers with a strong portfolio of biologic treatments.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AUD13.48bn (USD12.15bn) in 2014 to AUD13.98bn (USD10.35bn) in 2015; +3.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AUD151.84bn (USD136.85bn) in 2014 to AUD156.99bn (USD116.18bn) in 2015; +3.4% in local currency terms and -15.1% in US dollar terms, due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Risk/Rewards Index: In Q415 Australia retains its ranking position as the third most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 65.8 out of 100), after Japan (73.3) and South Korea (66.2). Australia's score is driven by a relatively high drug spending per capita, a large pensionable population and robust population growth but dragged down by poor sector growth.

Key Trends And Developments

July 2015

  • Medicines Australia raised concerns over increasing alarmist and misguided information spread by the media on negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and its impact on drugs prices in the country. In an open letter...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Selected Health Measures In Australia FY2015/16 Budget
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
29
Generic Drug Market Forecast
30
Table: Cost Of Selected Drugs Post-Price Disclosure, April 2013
33
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
33
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
34
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2011-2019)
36
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
37
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2019)
38
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Australia 2013-2019)
39
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
40
Macroeconomic Forecasts
41
Economic Analysis
41
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2019)
47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
48
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward - Q4 2015
48
Australia Risk/Reward Index
54
Rewards
54
Risks
55
Market Overview
56
Industry Trends And Developments
57
Epidemiology
57
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2011
58
Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (October 1 - December 31 2011)
59
Healthcare Sector
59
Research and Development
61
Clinical Trials
63
Regulatory Development
65
Regulatory Regime
65
Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms
66
Table: EU And ICH Guidelines Adopted In The TGA's Biosimilars Guidance Document
68
OTC Switching Climate
69
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
69
Recent Developments
70
Intellectual Property Issues
72
Trade Agreements
75
Pricing And Reimbursement
77
Table: Selected Drugs Undergoing SPD (AUD)
77
Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments
79
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
82
Table: New PBS Formularies
83
Competitive Landscape
84
Pharmaceutical Industry
84
Company Developments
85
Pharmaceutical Distribution
86
Table: Top-20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers By Value From Processed PBS Prescriptions (AUDmn), ending June 2012
90
Company Profile
91
Sigma
91
Australian Pharmaceutical Industries
95
Alphapharm
98
Herron Pharmaceuticals
101
CSL
104
Mayne Pharma Group
109
Sanofi
113
GlaxoSmithKline
117
Merck & Co
123
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
127
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
127
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
128
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
128
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
129
Glossary
131
Methodology
133
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
133
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
133
Notes On Methodology
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
135
Index Overview
136
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
136
Indicator Weightings
137

The Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Australia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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