Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 April 2015

  • 145 pages
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$1,295.00
Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The domestic backlash against the Australian government's budget saving efforts focusing on areas of the healthcare sector, including general practice copayments, will translate in to additional incentives for the government to place pressure on pharmaceutical expenditure. Patented drugs will continue to account for the majority of the pharmaceuticals market share in Australia, with this share to only slightly moderate over the next years. In fact, cost containment efforts will continue to present headwinds to multinational pharmaceutical companies seeking to list their products on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and achieve premium price lev els. However, despite the challenging environment , we expect Australia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector to continue growing over the next few years.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AUD13.48bn (USD12.15bn) in 2014 to AUD14.06bn (USD10.68bn) in 2015; +4.3% in local currency terms and -12.1% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AUD153.29bn (USD138.16bn) in 2014 to AUD160.01bn (USD121.61bn) in 2015; +4.4% in local currency terms and -12.0% in US dollar terms, due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Risk/Rewards Index: In Q315 Australia is ranked as the third most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 65.8 out of 100), after Japan (73.3) and South Korea (68.6). In Q315 we have revised downwards Australia's score from 67.0 in the last quarter on the back of lower industry rewards indices. Australia's score is driven by a relatively high drug spending per capita, a large pensionable population and robust population growth but dragged down by poor sector growth.

Key Trends And Developments

April 2015

  • Amneal Pharmaceuticals and Actavis Australia have signed a binding letter of intent under which Amneal will acquire...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Key Expenditures And Savings Under The Healthcare Sector (AUDmn)
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
23
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
24
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
24
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
28
Generic Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Cost Of Selected Drugs Post-Price Disclosure, April 2013
31
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
31
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
32
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018)
33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2012-2018)
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Australia 2012-2018)
35
Other Healthcare Data
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Chinese Reform Efforts To Weigh On Export Growth
38
Consumption Growth To Slow Further
39
Residential Investment To Fall Short
40
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2009-2018)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
42
Australia Risk/Reward Index
48
Rewards
48
Risks
49
Market Overview
50
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2011
52
Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (October 1 - December 31 2011)
53
Regulatory Development
54
Regulatory Regime
54
Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms
55
Table: EU And ICH Guidelines Adopted In The TGA's Biosimilars Guidance Document
58
OTC Switching Climate
58
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
59
Recent Developments
61
Intellectual Property Issues
67
Trade Agreements
71
Pricing And Reimbursement
72
Table: Selected Drugs Undergoing SPD (AUD)
72
Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments
74
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
79
Table: New PBS Formularies
82
Competitive Landscape
83
Pharmaceutical Industry
83
Company Developments
84
Pharmaceutical Distribution
92
Table: Top-20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers By Value From Processed PBS Prescriptions (AUDmn), ending June 2012
95
Company Profile
97
Sigma
97
Australian Pharmaceutical Industries
102
Alphapharm
106
Herron Pharmaceuticals
109
CSL
112
Mayne Pharma Group
117
Sanofi
121
GlaxoSmithKline
124
Merck & Co
129
Demographic Forecast
132
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
133
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
134
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
135
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
135
Glossary
136
Methodology
138
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
138
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
138
Notes On Methodology
139
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
140
Index Overview
141
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
141
Indicator Weightings
142

The Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Australia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Australia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc