BMI View: Australia ' s power sector offers both substantial growth opportunities and significant challenges. The country has enormous renewables potential however inadequate integration of new renewables capacity into the grid results in volatile supplies which in turn has impacted upon pricing as thermal power plants have been mothballed and no longer provide a stable base-load. The rolling back of renewable energy targets and cutting of government financing is likely to prove a deterrent to large-scale investors in the renewables sector however off-grid developments, primarily roof-top solar, are proving increasingly popular. While a mature market, population growth will ensure some increase in demand and modernisation of the grid will result in further opportunities for various power infrastructure firms.
|Generation, Total, TWh||249.950||254.820||259.820||265.030||270.330||275.750||281.510|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||236.8||241.6||246.5||251.5||256.7||262.0||267.5|
|Capacity, Net, MW||70,299.6||71,822.5||73,225.4||74,720.8||76,490.4||78,035.1||79,636.1|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
The privatisation process in Australia's power sector is ongoing. Western Power is reportedly being considered for sale by the Government of Western Australia (WA) government and in August 2016 announced a series of business transformation measures to prepare for the sale. WA reportedly aims to raise AUD12bn from the sale.
Renewables, primarily solar and wind power, is attracting the most investment with a number of projects entering the pipeline, supporting our forecasts for steady renewables growth. Solar power developer ESCO Pacific has submitted applications to develop three solar farms with a cumulative capacity of 320MW in Queensland while Windlab has received approval from the Flinders' Shire Council for the first phase of a 50MW solar-wind-energy storage hybrid project, also in Queensland, which involves an overall investment of more than AUD120mn (USD89.8mn) and is being developed in partnership with Japan-based Eurus Energy Holdings.
There are fewer developments in the thermal power sector. A number of plants have been mothballed as greater renewables capacity has made running ageing coal plants less cost-effective and with slow consumption growth ahead there is little incentive for investment in large-scale new infrastructure. As such we are forecasting only slow growth in total thermal power generation over the forecast period.
The Australia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Australia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Australia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).