Australia Power Report

Published 14 August 2015

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Australia Power Report

BMI View: Despite being a mature market Australian power sector is still growing , driven by strong demand. Although BMI believes renewables will be the fastest growing power source in Australia, policy changes have led BMI t o downgrade its renewable forecast. Meanwhile, coal will remain the dominant power source throughout out forecast.

Australia's power sector is facing unprecedented changes and challenges. Demand for electricity remains strong, but is considerably less than what was anticipated at the end of the last decade due to de-industrialisation and greater energy efficiency. Moreover, consumers are responding to the incentives created by the government's commitment to renewable energy, by generating their own electricity from off-grid solar energy rather than consuming electricity from the grid derived from traditional sources of energy such as coal and gas.

Repealing the carbon tax in 2014 will have a positive impact on the growth of thermal technologies such as coal and gas. Coal, in particular will show strong growth over the forecast period, while the increase in gas-fired generation will be less pronounced. High gas prices coupled with abundant peaking capacity will curb the need for new gas-fired generation in the short-term despite increasing domestic natural gas production.

Meanwhile, renewable generation will be the fastest growing power fuel source in Australia, driven by abundance of sunshine and wind as well as government subsidies. Nonetheless, BMI has downgraded its outlook for renewable growth as the government is gradually curbing the support schemes available to renewable energy.

Since assuming office in September 2013, Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the Liberal-National coalition have taken several divisive steps to scale back or repeal emissions reduction and green energy policies. This has hit investor confidence hard, evidenced by the announcement by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) that total investment into large-scale...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Australia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Australia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Australia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Australia 2019-2024)
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Australia 2019-2024)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Australia 2019-2024)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Australia Power Risk/Reward Index
31
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
33
Key Policies And Market Structure
33
Sustainable Energy Policies
33
Pricing
34
Australia Power Projects Database
35
Table: Australia - Major Power Projects
35
Competitive Landscape
41
EnergyAustralia
43
AGL
43
ETSA
43
Pacific Hydro
44
TRUenergy
44
Macquarie Generation
44
Verve Energy
45
Delta Electricity
45
CS Energy
46
Snowy Hydro
46
Griffin
46
Company Profile
47
AGL Energy
47
Regional Overview
49
Shifting Fuel Dynamics In Asia Power
49
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Australia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Australia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Australia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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