BMI View: Our muted renewables forecasts are unchanged this quarter, as the appointment of Malcolm Turnbull as Australian Prime Minister does little to boost Australia's embattled renewables sector ; as green energy policy will remain largely the same under his leadership. The long-awaited agreement on the country's RET in May 2015 was broadly positive for the industry; however , the outlook remains clouded.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, TWh||13.11||13.89||14.70||15.46||16.24||16.93||17.69||18.39||19.11||19.77||20.37|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||12.80||5.95||5.85||5.19||5.03||4.22||4.48||3.99||3.91||3.47||3.02|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||6,640.1||7,117.3||7,418.7||7,711.5||8,001.4||8,279.1||8,576.8||8,878.8||9,175.0||9,397.0||9,619.3|
|Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||15.0||7.2||4.2||3.9||3.8||3.5||3.6||3.5||3.3||2.4||2.4|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The outcome of Australia's snap leadership ballot conducted on September 14, which saw Malcolm Turnbull appointed as Australia's 29th Prime Minister after ousting incumbent Tony Abbott, will do little to boost the prospects of Australia's struggling renewables industry.
Our muted forecasts for renewables generation and capacity are unchanged - with a Labor government win in the 2017 federal elections providing the major upside for the industry over the longer term.
It was announced in mid-July 2015 that the government released a directive banning the CEFC from supporting wind power projects, and instead mandating the USD7.5bn fund to focus on 'emerging technologies'.
In May 2015, the Australian government and the Labor party reached a deal on the RET - setting it at 33TWh by 2020. This is widely viewed as a positive for the renewable energy industry in Australia, despite the fact it represents a reduction of the original target.
Total investment into large-scale renewable energy in Australia totalled USD240mn during 2014, representing an 88% drop from 2013 and marking the lowest level since 2002.
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.