BMI View: Our outlook for Australia's renewables sector remains negative, due to the unstable policy environment and waning government support for the industry. Amid this downbeat environment, we highlight residential solar, battery storage and community-level projects as the industry's major bright spots.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.888||14.700||15.463||16.241||16.927||17.685||18.391||19.109||19.772||20.368||20.890|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||5.946||5.846||5.194||5.030||4.222||4.481||3.992||3.907||3.465||3.016||2.563|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||7,117.3||7,418.7||7,711.5||8,001.4||8,279.1||8,576.8||8,879.2||9,175.8||9,397.6||9,619.6||9,841.4|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||7.2||4.2||3.9||3.8||3.5||3.6||3.5||3.3||2.4||2.4||2.3|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We expect annual average growth in non-hydro renewables capacity of 3.3% between 2016 and 2025, a noticeable reduction from the 20.1% registered in the market between 2008 and 2013.
Investment into clean energy collapsed in 2014 - totalling USD240mn, according to BNEF, representing a 88% drop from 2013 and marking the lowest level since 2002. In 2015, it picked up marginally, but still far below levels in 2013.
AGL Energy bought a USD20mn stake in US solar and battery storage developer Sunverge Energy, reportedly giving the former company exclusive rights to sell the battery storage product in Australia.
The Australian environment ministry has approved a USD274mn Mt Emerald wind farm project in the state of Queensland, subject to 35 conditions aimed at minimising the project's impact on the environment. The joint venture expects to start construction in mid-2016.
It was announced in December 2015 by Australia's Clean Energy Regulator that 119,000 small-scale solar photovoltaic installations were commissioned during 2015, taking total installations to around 1.5mn. This cements the country as the global leader for rooftop solar deployment.
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.