Australia Renewables Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Renewables industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BM's Renewables Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Business Environment Rankings and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts to test other views
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.

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Australia Renewables Report
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BMI View: Despite offering substantial growth potential, Australia's non-hydropower renewables sector is expected to see only limited growth over the course of our ten-year forecast period through to 2025. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding government policy on carbon emission reductions and renewable energy targets is a deterrent to investors, as is the expected slow growth in consumption demands in an already mature marketplace. Nonetheless, Australia is topographically well suited to the development of renewables and there is expected to be some growth in wind and solar power as the project pipeline is expanding.

Australia - Headline Renewables Forecasts
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Australia Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh 15.190 15.930 16.630 17.310 17.900 18.480 19.070
Australia Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y 10.990 4.870 4.390 4.090 3.400 3.270 3.170
Australia Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW 10,086.6 10,583.0 11,044.8 11,509.9 11,911.9 12,391.1 12,880.4
Australia Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y 15.7 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.5 4.0 4.0

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Australian infrastructure manager Palisade Investment Partners and Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) have unveiled a new investment strategy to help fund up to 500MW of solar and wind projects in Australia. CEFC will allocate up to AUD100mn (USD77mn) of equity for the projects and Palisade will, in turn, contribute up to AUD400mn (USD308mn) through a mix of managed funds and its direct investment mandate clients, including VicSuper and LGIAsuper. National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia will further provide debt financing for the projects.

  • Genex Power has appointed France-based Societe Generale as the sole lead arranger and financial adviser for the first 50MW phase of the 150MW Kidston solar project in Queensland. Genex and Societe Generale have entered an exclusive debt funding mandate, which does not cover any equity or potential grant funding managed separately in relation to the photovoltaic park. Talks are under way with several interested parties to finance all or part of the project construction equity. The project's first phase has been shortlisted in the Australian Renewable Energy Agency's AUD100mn (USD72.8mn) large-scale solar competitive round and work on the 50MW solar plant is expected to begin later in 2016.

  • Chinese investment in Australia's renewables sector is gaining ground. Work has started on the first phase of the 175MW White Rock wind farm in the state of New South Wales. The AUD400mn (USD291mn) project, owned by Chinese firms CECEP Wind-power Corporation (CECWPC) and Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, will comprise up to 119 turbines totalling 300MW, once all stages of the project are complete. The first phase involves installing 70 units of Goldwind's 2.5MW turbines. The wind park's Phase I, which will power about 75,000 average homes annually, is expected to be completed in H217.

  • Overall we expect non-hydropower renewables generation to increase from 15.93TWh in 2016 to 21.09TWh in 2025 - reflecting average annual growth of 3.3 over the course of the forecast period. As such, renewables generation will continue to account for less than 7% of total electricity generated in Australia.

BMI Industry View
Table: Australia - Headline Renewables Forecasts
Industry Forecast
Australia Renewables Forecast Scenario
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Australia 2020-2025)
Australia Renewables Projects Database
Table: Australia - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Australia Renewables Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Hydro Tasmania
AGL Energy
Pacific Hydro
Origin Energy
Solar Systems
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.