BMI View: The continued political deadlock over the RET in Australia is jeopardising the growth of the domestic renewables industry significantly. Until the RET can be agreed, the future of the sector remains largely in the balance, with investment decisions likely to be stalled or abandoned entirely.
Since assuming office in September 2013, Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the Liberal-National coalition have taken several divisive steps to scale-back or repeal emissions reduction and green energy policies. In July 2014, the Abbott administration abolished the carbon tax scheme, which was one of the mechanisms supporting the growth of renewable energy. Following that, the government announced that it was set to review and amend the country's renewable energy target (RET), which is the main policy tool encouraging investment into the renewable energy sector. The government aims to cut the target from the current goal of 41 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually by 2020 to 27TWh, but has so far been blocked by Labor, the Greens and the Palmer United Party in the Senate.
These actions have led us to recently revise down our short- and long-term forecasts for non-hydro renewables generation and capacity, to account for the unstable policy environment and challenging investment climate.
Key Trends And Developments
Total investment into large-scale renewable energy in Australia totalled USD240mn during 2014, representing an 88% drop from 2013 and marking the lowest level since 2002 (according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance). If small-scale investments - such as rooftop solar - are included in the total figures then the decrease falls in size, but is still a significant 35%.
In August 2014, Australia's Silex Systems announced that it had terminated its plan to develop the 100MW Mildura solar project in Victoria. Silex said that its decision was prompted by low wholesale power prices and the uncertain future of the RET.
In March 2015, Australia's Northern Grampians Shire...
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.