BMI View: Despite offering substantial growth potential, Australia's non-hydropower renewables sector is expected to see only limited growth over the course of our ten-year forecast period through to 2025. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding government policy on carbon emission reductions and renewable energy targets is a deterrent to investors, as is the expected slow growth in consumption demands in an already mature marketplace. Nonetheless, Australia is topographically well suited to the development of renewables and there is expected to be some growth in wind and solar power as the project pipeline is expanding.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Australia||Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||15.190||15.930||16.630||17.310||17.900||18.480||19.070|
|Australia||Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||10.990||4.870||4.390||4.090||3.400||3.270||3.170|
|Australia||Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||10,086.6||10,583.0||11,044.8||11,509.9||11,911.9||12,391.1||12,880.4|
|Australia||Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||15.7||4.9||4.4||4.2||3.5||4.0||4.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Australian infrastructure manager Palisade Investment Partners and Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) have unveiled a new investment strategy to help fund up to 500MW of solar and wind projects in Australia. CEFC will allocate up to AUD100mn (USD77mn) of equity for the projects and Palisade will, in turn, contribute up to AUD400mn (USD308mn) through a mix of managed funds and its direct investment mandate clients, including VicSuper and LGIAsuper. National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia will further provide debt financing for the projects.
Genex Power has appointed France-based Societe Generale as the sole lead arranger and financial adviser for the first 50MW phase of the 150MW Kidston solar project in Queensland. Genex and Societe Generale have entered an exclusive debt funding mandate, which does not cover any equity or potential grant funding managed separately in relation to the photovoltaic park. Talks are under way with several interested parties to finance all or part of the project construction equity. The project's first phase has been shortlisted in the Australian Renewable Energy Agency's AUD100mn (USD72.8mn) large-scale solar competitive round and work on the 50MW solar plant is expected to begin later in 2016.
Chinese investment in Australia's renewables sector is gaining ground. Work has started on the first phase of the 175MW White Rock wind farm in the state of New South Wales. The AUD400mn (USD291mn) project, owned by Chinese firms CECEP Wind-power Corporation (CECWPC) and Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, will comprise up to 119 turbines totalling 300MW, once all stages of the project are complete. The first phase involves installing 70 units of Goldwind's 2.5MW turbines. The wind park's Phase I, which will power about 75,000 average homes annually, is expected to be completed in H217.
Overall we expect non-hydropower renewables generation to increase from 15.93TWh in 2016 to 21.09TWh in 2025 - reflecting average annual growth of 3.3 over the course of the forecast period. As such, renewables generation will continue to account for less than 7% of total electricity generated in Australia.
The Australia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Australia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Australia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Australia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Australia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Australia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.