Austrian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016 but economic activity will lag behind regional peers, despite improving external demand from the eurozone.
At a federal level, support for the Freedom Party (FPO) exceeds that of either the SPO or OVP, which we expect to hold throughout 2016. The FPO is now the junior government coalition member in two Austrian states (Burgenland and Upper Austria).
Lacklustre consumer spending could result in a lower negative contribution from imports. This would bolster growth over the year though we do not feel this could significant deviate from forecasts in 2016 and 2017.
Continually robust support for the far right Freedom Party in 2016 remains a salient political risk consideration.
Austria's unilateral implementation of border controls and asylum application cap of 80 per day will lead to a domino effect along the 'Balkan Route'. This will impede the prospects of a European wide solution to the migrant crisis.
|e/f= BMI estimate/forecast Source: BMI/eurostat|
|Nominal GDP, EURbn||335.1||348.4||361.4||376.0|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||0.9||1.8||1.9||1.8|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||1.2||1.7||2.0||2.5|
|Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop||0.95||0.91||0.87||0.83|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-1.6||-1.8||-1.6||-1.4|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||0.8||1.0||1.0||1.0|
Assess your risk exposure in Austria with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Austria with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print and PDF
- Online access for 12 months
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report