Austria Metals Report

Published 05 December 2014

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Austria Metals Report

BMI View:   BMI 's latest Austria Metals Report assesses the prospects for growth in the steel industry over the medium   term following a return to growth in output and a continuation in year-on-year ( y-o-y ) growth in consumption during the 2013 full-year . Within it, our forecasts for the industry run out to 2018. The report examines the risk and investment strategies of leading players in the industry. It also examines the impact of a decline in the eurozone, particularly the German market, on Austrian exports. 

The performance of Austria's steel industry returned to growth once more in 2013, after deteriorating by 0.6% in 2012. Indeed in 2013, crude output increased by 0.5% to 7.46mnt. BMI estimates that consumption levels continued their upward trend for the fourth year running in 2013, rising by 1.2% from 4.78mnt as at December 31 2012 to 4.84mnt a year later. Going forward, BMI is forecasting both output and consumption to increase in 2014 by 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, y-o-y. Looking further ahead into 2015, while we forecast consumption to continue accelerating, we see production contracting in volume once more to close the year at 7.443mnt compared with 7.518mnt a year earlier.

We note, however, that fluctuations in the monthly data for steel output from Austria suggest that volatility is set to remain in the near term. Indeed according to data from the World Steel Association, Austrian monthly output at the end of September 2014 was below where it started the year. In September output reached 622,000 tonnes, compared with 681,000 tonnes in January 2014. What is more during the first nine months of the year, output levels have reached as high as 706,000 tonnes in March and also fallen as low as 622,000 tonnes in February, June, and March, respectively. BMI notes that such fluctuations in output levels are indicative of production in the broader European steelmaking arena too.

Slight Decline On The Horizon
Austria - Steel Output &...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Little Growth Ahead
11
Table: Austria - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
13
Table: Austria - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated)
14
Commodities Forecast
15
Steel Price Forecast
15
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
15
Short-Term Outlook
15
Core View
16
Global Steel Glut To Persist
16
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
17
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
19
Excessive Chinese Exports
20
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
21
Risks To Price Outlook
21
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
22
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
22
Commodity Strategy
23
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
24
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
26
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
27
Copper: All Eyes On China
28
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
29
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
31
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
32
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
35
Competitive Landscape
36
Table: Europe - Major Listed Metal Producers
37
Company Profile
39
Voestalpine
39
Table: Voestalpine - Financial Results
41
Methodology
42
Cross Checks
42

The Austria Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Austria.

BMI's Austria Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Austria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Austria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Austria metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Austria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc