BMI View: The Austrian pharmaceutical market, despite its small size in comparison with its EU15 partners, has one of the highest per capita expenditures globally due to its relatively small population, high burden of non-communicable diseases and ageing population. We believe pharmaceutical spending will post modest growth over the medium term as the government links growth in public healthcare expenditure with nominal GDP growth. Overall, we view the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market as relatively stable and insulated from sudden downgrades.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.29bn (USD6.97bn) in 2015 to EUR6.48bn (USD6.94bn) in 2016; 3.15% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecasts slightly decreased from the previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR37.4bn (USD41.4bn) in 2015 to EUR38.9bn (USD41.6bn) in 2016; +4.1% in local currency terms and 0.4% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged from the previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.100||6.970||6.940||7.360||7.950||8.570||8.860|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.85||1.88||1.87||1.86||1.84||1.83||1.81|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.1||16.8||16.7||16.6||16.5||16.4||16.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||47.470||41.420||41.590||44.430||48.200||52.120||53.960|
In our Q4 2016 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) we have assigned Austria a score of 73.8, same as in the previous quarter, which means that Austria ranks third in the region and scores only below the UK and Germany. Notably, Austria holds one of the highest RRI scores globally due to the inherent rewards and low risks that arise from an ageing population, high per capita spending and stable policy environment for drugmakers operating in the country.
According to the Austrian Pharmacists' Association in March, 31% of 1,370 pharmacies in Austria were not profitable in 2015 despite revenues rising 5.6% in total to EUR2.62bn in the same year, as margins on prescription medication continued to contract (FriedlNews).
In July 2016, the European Investment Bank provided EUR25mn to Valneva, French-Austrian biotech company, which develops and markets vaccines for Lyme disease, Japanese encephalitis and Zika virus among others. The company's products are based on EB66 cell like, which according to the company is more effective in vaccine production than conventional egg-based platforms or other cell lines.
Also in July 2016, Valneva said that it has succeeded in generating a 'highly purified inactivated vaccine candidate' against Zika virus using the same platform as the company's Japanese encephalitis vaccine which is marketed in the United States and Europe. Valneva indicated that clinical development could start in coming months depending on the outcome of the discussions with the regulatory authorities (Reuters).
BMI Economic View
Austria's economy will start growing robustly in 2016 and 2017, driven by strong consumer demand. Fixed investment is also set to pick up due to a strong housing market, and will positively contribute to GDP growth, after three years of stagnation.
BMI Political View
Green candidate Alexander Van der Bellen's presidential election victory will realign Austria with its Western European peers and Brussels' migrant policy. However, with just short of 50.0% of the vote, Austria's far right camp has established itself as a dominant political force in the country, whose popularity will continue to surge in the quarters ahead.
The Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Austria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Austria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Austria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.