BMI View: GDP growth in Austria is forecast to accelerate to 1.8% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017, a fter expanding by a moderate 0.6 % over the past four years . This modest recovery comes after a long period of near-stagnation; Austria's economy grew by just 2.9% between 2008 and 2015. We believe pharmaceutical spending will post modest growth over the medium term as the government links growth in public healthcare expenditure with nominal GDP growth. Overall, we view the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market as relatively stable and insulated from sudden downgrades.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.44bn (USD7.09bn) in 2015 to EUR6.55bn (USD7.01bn) in 2016; 1.7% in local currency terms and -1.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts in USD terms slightly decreased from the previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR37.3bn (USD41.1bn) in 2015 to EUR38.8bn (USD41.5bn) in 2016; +3.8% in local currency terms and 1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts in USD terms slightly decreased from the previous quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.493||7.085||7.009||7.337||7.823||8.340||8.542|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.93||1.93||1.90||1.86||1.83||1.79||1.76|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.6||17.3||16.9||16.6||16.4||16.2||16.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||48.152||41.061||41.465||44.195||47.833||51.615||53.334|
In our Q3 2016 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) we have assigned Austria a score of 73.8, the same as its score from the previous quarter. This ranks Austria third in the region and scores only below the UK and Germany. Notably, Austria holds one of the highest RRI scores globally due to the inherent rewards and low risks that arise from an ageing population, high per capita spending and stable policy environment for drugmakers operating in the country.
In March, Valneva, a France-based vaccine company with operations in Austria, announced the signing of a USD42m contract with the US Government's Department of Defence for the supply of Japanese encephalitis vaccine IXIARO over a two-year period. The US Department of Defence has been using IXIARO to protect near 360,000 US military and civilian personnel living in endemic countries since 2010.
As reported in December 2015, Boehringer Ingelheim will invest in biopharmaceutical production at its Vienna site, establishing a new large-scale production facility for active ingredients manufactured using cell cultures. With an approximate EUR500mn investment, Boehringer Ingelheim will also create more than 400 new jobs at the facility, which is expected to go into operation by 2021.
At its Biberach site in Vienna, Boehringer Ingelheim has, up until now, produced pharmaceutical active ingredients using microorganisms; over the next few years, cell culture technology will also be transferred there. Biberach will remain Boehringer Ingelheim's largest European cell culture and global launch site for biopharmaceutical products.
In December 2015, a new study from researchers at the Danube University in Krems found that spending on antidepressants and antipsychotics increased by 31% between 2006 and 2013. This was significantly more than other spending increases in Austrian healthcare.
BMI Economic View
Austrian GDP growth will be mainly driven by strong internal demand in the years ahead. The government's tax reforms will boost household consumption, while public spending will increase due to higher expenditure on migrants in 2016 and 2017.
BMI Political View
Austria's unilateral decision to reinstate border controls along its southern border will put more pressure on the EU to find a common answer to the refugee question. Although the policy will bolster the government's short-term approval ratings, we expect Austrian trade to suffer in the quarters ahead.
The Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Austria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Austria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Austria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.