BMI View: While we view the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market as relatively stable and insulated from sudden downgrades, we highlight that certain economic factors pose a risk to public spending in particular. However, the country's economy is poised to grow in 2016 and therefore, we believe pharmaceutical spending will post modest growth over the medium term, as the government links growth in public healthcare expenditure with nominal GDP growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.44bn (USD7.08bn) in 2015 to EUR6.55bn (USD7.01bn) in 2016; 1.7% in local currency terms and -1.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts in USD terms slightly increased from the previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR37.33bn (USD41.06bn) in 2015 to EUR38.75bn (USD41.46bn) in 2016; +3.8% in local currency terms and 1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged from the previous quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.493||7.085||7.009||7.337||7.823||8.340||8.542|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.93||1.93||1.90||1.86||1.83||1.79||1.76|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.6||17.3||16.9||16.6||16.4||16.2||16.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||48.152||41.061||41.465||44.195||47.833||51.615||53.334|
In our Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) we have assigned Austria an RRI score of 73.8, up from 64.7 in the previous quarter, which means that Austria ranks second in the region and scores only below the UK. Notably, Austria holds one of the highest RRI scores globally due to the inherent rewards and low risks that arise from an ageing population, high per capita spending and stable policy environment for drugmakers operating in the country.
In December, Austria's controversial electronic health records system, ELGA, was launched. This comes after years of preparation and several delays, however, Austria's Health Minister, Sabine Oberhauser, dismissed critics' concerns about patient privacy and the security of the system, saying that access to the encrypted data is subject to the tightest restrictions and the express permission of the patient (The Local).
In December, a report from IMF recommended that Austria would conduct broad cuts in such areas of spending as healthcare, education and pensions, as in the medium term high public debt and looming ageing costs call for fiscal consolidation.
Same report from IMF specified that in healthcare provision, Austria should step up the effort to shift care away from hospitals toward outpatient services and inputs (e.g. number of beds and doctors per 1000 residents) should be aligned with peer countries to contain cost inefficiencies.
BMI Economic View
Austrian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016 but economic activity will lag behind regional peers. Nonetheless, external demand conditions should improve in 2016 in line with sustained growth in the eurozone. As a highly open economy, external demand is important for economic activity and improving demand should allow net exports to remain the driver of growth throughout 2016 and beyond.
BMI Political View
The migrant crisis will create some fiscal pressure for Austria, but the main impact is likely to be felt in the political sphere, where the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party will capitalise on growing public concern over rapidly rising immigration for electoral gain.
The Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Austria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Austria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Austria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Austrian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Austria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.