Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

Published 10 February 2015

  • 60 pages
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$1,295.00
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: Falling oil prices and delays in plans for a petrochemicals complex could lead to a downward revision in forecast petrochemicals capacities in Azerbaijan in the long term. As a result, we do not expect Azerbaijan to be able to utilise its massive resources in the near term.

Azerbaijan's GDP growth will be negatively affected by falling oil prices over the next two years. Even though the ongoing development of the country's petrochemicals sector counterbalance the loss in oil revenues somewhat, Azerbaijan's reliance on the oil sector has underpinned a deterioration in the competitiveness of domestic industries. These trends could lead to further delays in the development of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)'s Oil and Gas Processing and Petrochemical Complex (OGPC), which has already been delayed from 2017/2018 to 2020.

We further highlight that if Azerbaijan is to become a significant petrochemicals producer, the country needs to invest heavily in infrastructure. The lack of investment and maintenance of existing plants as well as outdated technology substantially limits capacity utilisation.

Key Developments And Forecasts

  • The planned SOCAR Polimer polypropylene (PP) plant, with 200,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) capacity, at the Sumgayit Chemical Technology Park in Azerbaijan is scheduled to start production in H216. A 100,000tpa polyethylene (PE) plant is also likely to come on stream at the same time.

  • A fertiliser project is planned in Karadagh with capacities of 255,000tpa ammonia and 500,000tpa urea. SOCAR is also planning two fertiliser plants, each with 700,000tpa of urea capacity, one in Azerbaijan and one in Georgia. Construction is due for completion by end-2016. The objective is for Azerbaijan to raise its fertiliser exports to 1mn tpa.

  • SOCAR's OGPC will have total gas processing capacity of 10-12bn cubic metres (bcm) and oil refining capacity of 10mn tpa. Capacities will include 700,000 tpa high-density polyethylene...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2018
12
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
18
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Market Overview
21
Table: Cracker Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ('000 tpa)
21
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Upstream
24
Company Profile
26
Azerkimya
26
State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)
28
Regional Overview
31
Europe Overview
31
Regulatory Concerns Add To Competitiveness Issues
31
Declining Capacities
32
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013
38
Global Industry Overview
42
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
45
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
46
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
47
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
48
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
48
Gasoline
50
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
50
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
51
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
52
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
55
Risks To Outlook
58
Diesel
58
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
59
New York's One-Off Heat Up
59
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
62
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
66
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
68
Risks To Outlook
72
Jet Fuel
73
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
73
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
73
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
75
Risks To Outlook
78
Bunker fuel
79
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
79
The Storm Clears For Shipping
80
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
82
Long-Term Threats Linger
83
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
85
Risks To Outlook
85
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Azerbaijan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Azerbaijan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
94
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Azerbaijani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Azerbaijan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc