Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

Published 08 May 2015

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$1,295.00
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: The Azerbaijani petrochemicals market will be undermined by slow growth caused by the impact of lower oil prices and the depreciation of the manat on consumer demand. As a result, BMI's latest Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report expects lower operating rates in the country's small and ageing petrochemicals facilities in 2015.

Azerbaijan's petrochemicals industry has been a victim of its narrow focus on hydrocarbons. While oil was highly priced, there was less incentive to capitalise on oil and gas resources or deal with endemic infrastructural problems. We note that the petrochemicals sector will contribute significantly to the development of the non-oil economy, providing the basis of growth in downstream manufacturing as well as exports. It will also be able to move the country towards self-sufficiency in some segments, particularly polyethylene (PE) and methanol. This should even out the impact of volatile oil output growth in the wider economy.

We further highlight that if Azerbaijan is to become a significant petrochemicals producer, the country needs to invest heavily in infrastructure. Electricity supply problems have undermined production in the past and raised costs. The lack of investment and maintenance of existing plants as well as outdated technology substantially also limits capacity utilisation.

Key Developments and Forecasts

  • The planned SOCAR Polimer polypropylene (PP) plant, with a 200,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) capacity, at the Sumgayit Chemical Technology Park in Azerbaijan is scheduled to start production in H216. A 100,000tpa PE plant is also likely to come on stream at the same time.

  • A fertiliser project is planned in Karadagh with capacities of 255,000tpa ammonia and 500,000tpa urea. SOCAR is also planning two fertiliser plants, each with a capacity of 700,000tpa of urea, one in Azerbaijan and one in Georgia. Construction is due for completion by end-2016. The objective is for Azerbaijan to raise its fertiliser exports to...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Azerbaijan Petrolchemical Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Analysis
15
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Azerbaijan 2012-2019)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
25
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
25
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Upstream
30
Company Profile
33
State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)
33
Regional Overview
36
Europe Overview
36
Feedstock competitiveness
36
Trouble In The East
38
Global Industry Overview
43
Project Cancellation: the Impact of US Expansion and Low Oil Prices
43
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
45
Medium-term outlook
46
China versus the US: feedstock wars
47
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
51
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
51
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
52
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Azerbaijan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Azerbaijan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Azerbaijan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (Azerbaijan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Azerbaijan 1990-2025)
57
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
59
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Azerbaijani petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Azerbaijani petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Azerbaijan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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