Bahrain Autos Report

Published 30 March 2015

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Bahrain Autos Report

BMI expects a slowdown in new vehicle sales in Bahrain over 2015. We are targeting a still healthy 6.5% growth for the current year, down from the very strong estimated 14% growth seen over 2014. A deteriorating macroeconomic picture is the main reason behind our expectation for lower new car sales growth in 2015. As one of the MENA countries most exposed to lower oil prices, we believe that Bahrain will struggle to balance its deteriorating state finances with the economy's reliance on government expenditure. Financial assistance from the rest of the Gulf will support the government's infrastructure investment plans for the time being and should alleviate the need for a major adjustment in public spending. This should also indicate continued strong demand for HCVs and construction equipment.

The tourism industry, a bulwark of employment, will also benefit from Bahrain's links with Saudi Arabia. These factors should cushion the impact of the oil price slump on the economy and ensure continued growth in the construction and hospitality sectors in the coming years. Buoyant tourist arrival numbers should also indicate continued strong demand for new vehicles from the car rental market over 2015.

Nevertheless, private sector activity will suffer from erosion in consumer and business confidence, already weakened by the persistent uncertainty of Bahrain's political environment. Against this backdrop, we forecast Bahraini real GDP growth to slow to 3.4% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016, down from our previous projections of 3.8% for both years.

Turning to the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of the potential demand for new vehicles in Bahrain, we hold a cautiously positive stance, targeting growth of 4.5% for 2015, although this is down from the average of 7.1% seen over the 2009-13 period. We expect the decline in oil prices to weigh negatively on consumer confidence, potentially impacting on domestic household spending. Moreover, employment gains remain...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
18
Table: Bahrain - Top 10 Selling Manufacturers 2013
20
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector - Key Players
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
25
Macroeconomic Forecast
28
Economic Analysis
28
Expenditure Breakdown
31
Table: Economic Activity (Bahrain 2009-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Middle East Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Company Profile
42
Company Monitor
42
Al Zayani Investments
45
Regional Overview
47
Table: MENA Production Investments
47
Global Industry Overview
49
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
49
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
49
Trucks Give North America A Lift
50
India Brings Relief To BRICs
52
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Methodology
58
Industry Forecasts
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc