Early sales figures would seem to bear out BMI's expectations for slightly slower new vehicle sales growth in Bahrain over 2015. Q115 sales figures stood at 18,006 units, according to information from the BestSellingCarsBlog. On current sales trends, this would suggest a full-year outcome in the region of 72,024 units, very much in line with BMI's forecast of 71,608 units for the full year.
As such, this quarter BMI maintains its forecast of 6.5% sales growth for the Bahraini new vehicle sales market in 2015. However, there could well be some slight upside to this forecast as additional monthly data are released, especially as a significant proportion of Bahraini new vehicle sales take place during Ramadan. This is also a time when many dealerships have special offers. However, we are not expecting 2015 full-year growth to be anywhere near as strong as 2014's.
A deteriorating macroeconomic picture is the main reason behind our expectation for lower new car sales growth in 2015. BMI's Country Risk team believes that weaker consumer and business confidence will put a brake on private sector activity throughout the rest of 2015 and 2016. Moreover, fiscal policy will gradually move towards greater conservatism, with a negative impact on economic activity. Consequently, in August 2015 BMI revised down its forecast for Bahraini economic growth in both 2015 and 2016 to 2.9%, from previous projections of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively.
The retrenchment in global energy prices that began at the end of 2014 will remain the most important macroeconomic challenge confronting Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) over the medium term. Bahrain's dependence on hydrocarbons is pronounced. The government derives nearly 90% of its revenue from the oil and gas sector and we expect the country's budget deficit to widen to a record 10.8% of GDP this year. Moreover, with both the Awali and offshore Abu Safa fields operating at full capacity, the government has...
The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.