Bahrain Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Bahrain Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • External financing from the rest of the GCC will help to shield the Bahraini non-oil sector from the ongoing retrenchment in public spending. Despite the negative impact of subsidy cuts on internal demand, we forecast Bahrain to grow at a relatively robust rate of 2.9% this year and 2.6% in 2017.

  • Bahrain's reputation as a stable and welcoming location to do business in the Gulf has suffered as a result of the volatile political climate. At the moment, it remains to be seen if Manama will be able to compete with Doha and Dubai in attracting investment into the all-important hospitality and financial services industry.

  • The economy's medium-term outlook remains contingent upon a lasting solution being found to the current political crisis. Unfortunately, we maintain our guarded outlook on the prospects that the government and opposition can come to some form of agreement in the near term.

  • Bahrain's weak medium-term fiscal prospects will force the government to make difficult choices. We believe that Manama will have little option but to introduce new taxes over the coming years, while the issue of spending consolidation will loom large on the agenda. Support from Saudi Arabia could delay these pressures, but would entail a significant loss of sovereignty.

  • The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) will continue to follow a pro-cyclical monetary policy over 2016, raising interest rates in line with the US Federal Reserve's moves. Although the government's subsidy cuts will trigger inflation, continued strength in the US dollar, subdued commodity prices, and the CBB's rate hikes will help to offset inflationary pressures.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.5 2.9 2.9 2.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 33.8 35.4 37.4 39.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.5 0.7 3.0 3.0
Exchange rate BHD/USD, eop 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.6 -11.1 -10.2 -8.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 3.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Absorbed Into Regional Saudi Arabia-Iran Tensions
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Sun, Sea, And Sectarianism: Prospects For Future Stability Assessed
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Gulf Linkages To Help Buttress Growth
14
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH, % -O-Y
14
Table: COMPONENTS OF GDP (% OF TOTAL)
14
Table: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
15
Table: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
15
Table: MAIN INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS
16
Table: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
16
Table: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
17
Fiscal Policy
18
UAE Subsidy Reform To Boost Manama's Efforts
18
table: Fiscal Policy
18
Banking Sector
20
Counting On Overseas Growth
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Bahrain Economy To 2024
23
Political Crisis Raises Risks
23
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
Table: Operational Risk
26
Market Size And Utilities
27
Table: MENA - Market Size And Utilities Availability Risk
28
International Security Risk
31
Table: MENA - Interstate Security Risk
31
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
35
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
36
Telecommunications
38
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
38
Other Key Sectors
43
Table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
44
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
44
Table: Freight Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Outlook
45
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
45
Table: Global Asumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
47

Assess your risk exposure in Bahrain with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Bahrain with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report