BMI View: Bahrain will continue to follow an ambitious infrastructure investment plan in order to increase capacity within its key freight sectors. This falls in line with the government's strategic vision for 2030, which will aim to promote trade in the region and stimulate economic growth. The measures will contribute to steady growth across its freight modes over the medium term to 2020 , with the road transport sector in particular benefitting from infrastructure investment and industry diversification in the country.
Real growth in GDP looks set to slow marginally in 2016, though oil prices are starting to recover slightly from recent drops. Healthy growth in the non-oil sector will have a positive impact on freight transport as demand from other industries will boost growth. Bahrain's political situation and its impact on economic stability will be under scrutiny in 2016 as the government continues to forge a path of economic recovery through investment and trade reforms.
Import and export growth in Bahrain will be steady in 2016. Trade in iron and steel will see particularly strong growth rates of almost 8% next year. Importantly, economic cooperation and financial support across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) should strengthen trade prospects as markets recover from the disruption caused by recent political unrest.
Both road and air transport will increase their capacity between 2016 and 2020 thanks to infrastructure investment as well as stable trade growth over the next five years. Road transport will fare particularly well, benefitting from low oil prices and investment, both home-grown and from neighbouring countries. Plans under discussion for the incorporation of Bahrain into a Gulf railway system will add to the country's freight mix, while the air freight industry's growth trajectory will be dependent on economic growth in the region, particularly in sectors such as high tech and pharmaceuticals.
Bahrain is to award over USD44bn for development projects, with transportation one of the key areas of investment.
Bahrain is to invest USD10bn on a GCC railway link and a second causeway to Saudi Arabia.
Bahrain unveiled plans for an USD815mn airport expansion, which is to be completed by 2019.
Key BMI Forecasts
We predict that total real trade growth will come in at 2.75% in 2016.
Imports will see real growth of 3.6%, reaching USD13.87bn in 2016.
Exports will grow by 1.9% to USD23.14bn.
Road freight will continue to dominate Bahrain's freight mix, with a share of 93.5% in 2016.
The Bahrain Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Bahrain Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.