Bahrain Freight Transport Report

Published 08 January 2015

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Bahrain Freight Transport Report

Bahrain continues to invest heavily to establish itself a key logistics centre in the Gulf. The primary port, the Khalifa Bin Salman Port (KBSP) is to have its channel deepened, and the Bahrain International Airport is to be expanded. We question whether the small island state can compete with the investment that has already been put into making Dubai a logistics hub for the region; however, Bahrain has succeeded in attracting new logistics companies to its territory in recent years, and we forecast growth across its freight modes over our medium-term forecast period.

Headline Industry Data

  • Growth at the port of Khalifa bin Salman (KBSP) in terms of total tonnage throughput is forecast at 13.1% in 2015, with average annual growth forecast at 10.6% between 2015 and 2019.

  • Growth in Bahrain International Airport tonnage handling forecast at 2.8% in 2015, with average annual growth of 1.2% over our forecast period.

  • Real growth in total trade forecast at 3.4% in 2015 and to average 3.5% over the medium term.

Key Industry Trends

Ministry Extends Prequalification Deadline For Manama Airport: Bahrain's transport ministry has postponed the deadline for contractors to prequalify to conduct the main construction of the USD1bn modernisation of Bahrain International Airport. BMI is sceptical with regard to plans to increase freight-handling capacity at the facility, given that throughput declined for five consecutive years from 2009 to 2013, and we project only sluggish growth in coming years.

KBSP Dispute Resolved: A dispute over outstanding storage charges has been resolved at the Khalifa bin Salman Port (KBSP). In August 2014 the port operator, APM Terminals (APMT), began withholding and refusing to release containers from the facility if their owners had not settled their outstanding bills.

Another Causeway, Same Risks To Realisation: At a time when other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are forging ahead with the development of their railway...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Macroeconomic Outlook
13
Maritime Freight
13
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2010-2017 ('000 tonnes)
15
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017 ('000 tonnes)
16
Trade
16
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
17
Table: Bahrain's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
18
Table: Bahrain's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Outlook
19
Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Road And Logsitics
31
Air
32
Maritime
33
Company Profile
35
BMMI
35
Regional Overview
37
Political Outlook
37
Domestic Politics
37
Table: Bahrain - Key Political Facts
39
Long-Term Political Outlook
40
Global Industry Overview
45
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
46
Refiners: Faltering Light At The End Of The Tunnel
48
Jet Fuel: Middle East Posts Strongest Demand As Global Air Traffic Slumps
50
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
51
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
52
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
54
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
54
Demographic Forecast
56
Bahrain Demographic Data
56
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
57
Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
58
Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
59
Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
59
Methodology
60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
60
Transport Industry
61
Sources
61

The Bahrain Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bahrain Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc