Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the k ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2 018 .

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2013-2019)
2013 201 4 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 58.0 61.0 64.1 66.2 68.5 70.3 72.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 266.0 262.0 262.1 262.1 262.2 262.2 262.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 49.0 51.5 54.0 56.7 59.0 61.4 63.8
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • The weakness in oil prices is reinforcing Bahrain's unsustainable fiscal dynamics. This increases the possibility of fuel subsidy reform being implemented over the coming months and years, yielding downside risk to our refined fuels consumption forecast. However, we will wait for further details on the size of subsidy reductions and the timing to adjust our consumption forecast.

  • The expansion of Sitra refinery from its current 270,000b/d capacity to 350,000b/d will see production of refined fuels increase by 30%. By 2020 this will overturn the trend of declining refined fuels exports, and should provide a boost to government revenues: Bahrain's key oil exports and revenues are based primarily on its refining capacity. This is, however, a two-year delay from initial plans, which will therefore reflect negatively on the country's fiscal situation until 2020. We note increasing downside risk to its realisation: falling oil prices and new refining capacity in the region will be detrimental to late-movers such as Bahrain.

  • As with oil, the country is attempting to increase gas production from the mature Bahrain field. However, plans to tap Bahrain's deep gas reserves will likely take longer to develop, leaving an increasingly tight supply outlook as demand continues to rise. The latest updates from the Tatweer Petroleum joint venture show a larger increase in gas production over 2014 than we expected. As a result, we have adjusted our gas production outlook to reflect this.

  • Bahrain does not import or export gas, relying solely on domestic production for its rising consumption. Plans for pipeline imports from Iran and Qatar have not materialised, and the country is now looking into constructing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility to satisfy rising demand. At the moment, however, we have not included LNG imports into our forecast, as it remains uncertain as to whether or not the terminal plans will be progressed. Falling oil prices will also reinforce the country's fiscal deficit, making the funding of such a terminal more difficult.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
15
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bahrain 2013-2018)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bahrain 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
36
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
39
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
40
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Limited Opportunities Downstream
42
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
46
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
50
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Service Stations
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
Bahrain National Gas Company
55
Bahrain Petroleum Company
58
Chevron Bahrain
61
Occidental Petroleum
63
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
67
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
67
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
67
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
69
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
70
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
71
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
73
Global Industry Overview
75
Global Energy Market Overview
75
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
79
Appendix
81
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
81
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
81
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
82
Middle East - Regional Appendix
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
89
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
89
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
90
Bahrain - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
91
Bahrain - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
93
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
97
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
98
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
99
Glossary
100
Table: Glossary Of Terms
100
Methodology
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Source
104
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
104
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
106
Table: Weighting
107

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.