Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 June 2015

  • 111 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the k ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2 018. Other plans envisage the construction of a LNG receiving terminal, although this is still a long way from realisation.

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 58.0 60.5 62.5 64.6 66.8 68.6 70.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 263.0 260.4 260.4 260.5 260.5 260.5 260.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 50.0 52.5 55.1 57.9 60.2 62.6 65.1

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil & gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • The weakness in oil prices is reinforcing Bahrain's unsustainable fiscal dynamics. This increases the possibility of fuel subsidy reform being implemented over the coming months and years, yielding downside risk to our refined fuels consumption forecast. However, we will wait for further details...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
15
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2013-2018)
18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2019-2024)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Bahrain 2013-2018)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Bahrain 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
41
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
42
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Limited Opportunities Downstream
45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index
48
Market Overview
50
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
54
Oil Storage Facilities
55
Service Stations
55
Oil Pipelines
55
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
59
Table: Key Downstream Players
59
Company Profile
60
Bahrain National Gas Company
60
Bahrain Petroleum Company
63
Chevron Bahrain
66
Occidental Petroleum
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
72
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
72
Oil Production - Low Oil Prices Not Preventing Growth
72
Oil Consumption - Demand Continues Unabated
74
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Modernity And Scale
75
Gas Production - Pressure To Produce
76
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
78
Global Industry Overview
80
Oil Price Outlook
80
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
80
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
81
Appendix
88
Middle East - Regional Appendix
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
93
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
94
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
94
Bahrain - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
95
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
95
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
95
Bahrain - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2013-2018)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2019-2024)
101
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Bahrain 2013-2018)
102
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Bahrain 2019-2024)
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
110
Table: Weighting
111

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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