Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 108 pages
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$1,295.00
Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the K ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. Other plans envisage the construction of a liquefied natural gas receiving terminal, although this is still a long way from realisation.

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 52.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.1 66.4 68.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 256.6 263.0 263.0 263.1 263.1 263.2 263.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 46.0 49.0 51.5 54.0 56.7 59.0 61.4
EIA/BMI

Click here to explore data

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • Our core view remains that continued subsidisation will support strong refined fuels consumption growth over the next five years. However, we note that the weakness in oil prices will reinforce Bahrain's unsustainable fiscal dynamics. This could provide the necessary push to drive through fuel...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2018-2023)
10
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2012-2017)
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2018-2023)
12
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2018-2023)
15
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2012-2017)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2018-2023)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2012-2017)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2018-2023)
24
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2012-2017)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2018-2023)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2018-2023)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bahrain 2012-2017)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bahrain 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2012-2017)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
37
Outperforming The World Upstream
38
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
38
Limited Opportunities Downstream
42
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
42
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Market Overview
45
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
45
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
47
Oil Refineries
47
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
47
Oil Storage Facilities
48
Service Stations
49
Oil Pipelines
49
Gas Pipelines
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil And Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
52
Company Profile
53
Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO)
53
Bahrain National Gas Company (Banagas)
57
Chevron Bahrain
59
Occidental Petroleum
61
Other Summaries
64
Regional Overview
65
Industry Forecast
65
Middle East Oil Production - Strong Growth But Risks Remain
65
Middle East Oil Consumption - Subsidies Fuelling Demand
67
Middle East Refining Capacity - A Bullish Outlook
68
Middle East Gas Production - A Growing Domestic Priority
69
Middle East Gas Consumption - Demand Growth Outstripping Production
70
Global Industry Overview
72
Global Energy Market Overview
72
Appendix
78
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
78
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
78
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
79
Middle East - Regional Appendix
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Bahrain - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2012-2017)
88
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bahrain 2018-2023)
89
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2012-2017)
90
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bahrain 2018-2023)
91
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2012-2017)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bahrain 2018-2023)
93
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2012-2017)
94
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2018-2023)
94
Bahrain - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
95
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2012-2017)
95
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bahrain 2018-2023)
95
Glossary
97
Table: Glossary Of Terms
97
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Source
101
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
101
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
103
Table: Weighting
104

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc