Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the k ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2 018 .

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 61.0 64.1 66.2 68.5 70.3 72.1 74.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 262.0 262.1 262.1 262.2 262.2 262.2 340.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 51.5 54.0 56.7 59.0 61.4 63.8 66.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • In early 2015, the chief executive of Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) said a plan on whether to proceed with a final investment decision on the refinery expansion would only be presented in 2016. As of March 2016, the company has yet to decide on its expansion. Should it proceed, completion of the refinery would be targeted by 2020. A 2020 completion date is a two-year delay to the original upgrade timeline, which targeted completion by 2018. We have modified our Bahrain forecast to reflect this delay, pushing back a ramp-up in refined fuels production to 2020.

  • In reaction to the low oil prices and its unsustainable fiscal dynamics, Bahrain has finally increased refined fuel prices late 2015/early 2016, and notably for gasoline prices, a first in the past 33 years. We slightly adjusted out refined fuels consumption forecast in reaction. We expect further such moves can be expected over the coming quarters and years, although changes will be implemented slowly and incrementally.

  • Indicative of expected gas production growth at the field is the award late 2015 of a contract in Bahrain to supply a new gas processing facility to Petrofac. The new facility with a 5.1bcm capacity is the first of a series of planned gas capacity projects scheduled for the next three to five years.

  • The Bahrain Oil & Gas Authority (nogaholding) has awarded a build, own, operate and transfer contract for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal. The project is scheduled for completion by July 2018 and will have the capacity to import up to 8.3bcm per annum. We have adjusted our forecasts to reflect this development. We forecast first LNG in 2018 at 0.8bcm, rising to reach 5.3bcm by the end of our forecast period in 2025.

  • The addition of LNG imports has also significantly strengthened Bahrain's domestic gas consumption outlook, which was previously restrained by supply. We now forecast gas consumption averaging 4.6% y-o-y for the next 10 years; this compares to our previous forecast of 2.6%, with LNG imports supporting the greater use of gas in industry.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Latest Updates
12
Structural Trends
12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
18
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
18
Refining
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025)
28
Gas Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
32
Crude Oil
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
34
Refined Fuels
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
41
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
43
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index
46
Market Overview
48
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
48
Regulatory Structure
48
Fiscal Regime
49
Licensing Regime
49
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
50
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Service Stations
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
Banagas
55
BAPCO
58
Chevron Bahrain
62
Occidental Petroleum
64
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
68
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
68
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
68
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
70
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
72
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
73
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
75
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
76
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Terms
78
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Source
82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
82
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
84
Table: Weighting
85

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.