Bahrain Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the k ingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal defic it until 2020. This marks a two- year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2 018 . We also note downside risk to our crude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from the Tatweer joint venture currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.

Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020)
2014 201 5 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 60.5 63.5 65.7 67.9 69.7 71.5 73.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 262.0 262.1 262.1 262.2 262.2 262.2 340.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 52.5 55.1 55.6 57.2 59.0 60.7 62.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.4 21.7 22.7
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates A nd Key Forecasts

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

  • Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

  • Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over the coming years. It was reported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum have agreed with Nogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether the government manages to find a replacement before deciding on how these changes will impact redevelopment and exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.

  • After initial doubts on whether the refinery expansion would proceed, in June 2016, BAPCO opened a tender to boost refinery capacity, with closing date of October 2016. The expansion project, expected to entail an investment of about USD5bn, aims to increase processing capacity of the oil refinery from the existing 267,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 360,000 bpd, under the BAPCO Modernisation Programme. A 2020 completion date is a two-year delay to the original upgrade timeline, which targeted completion by 2018. We have modified our Bahrain forecast to reflect this delay, pushing back a ramp-up in refined fuels production to 2020.

  • In reaction to the low oil prices and its unsustainable fiscal dynamics, Bahrain has finally increased refined fuel prices late 2015/early 2016, and notably for gasoline prices, a first in the past 33 years. We slightly adjusted out refined fuels consumption forecast in reaction. We expect further such moves can be expected over the coming quarters and years, although changes will be implemented slowly and incrementally.

  • Indicative of expected gas production growth at the field is the award late 2015 of a contract in Bahrain to supply a new gas processing facility to Petrofac. The new facility with a 5.1bcm capacity is the first of a series of planned gas capacity projects scheduled for the next three to five years. In addition, in January 2016 Japan-based JGC Corporation reportedly signed an agreement worth USD355mn with Banagas to expand a gas-processing plant in Bahrain. The deal includes engineering, procurement and construction of the Banagas Expansion Project. The facility is expected to process 9.91mn cubic metres of extra associated gas from the Bahrain Oil Field. The plant is anticipated to be ready for testing in 32 months and begin operating in September 2018.

  • The Bahrain Oil & Gas Authority (Nogaholding) has awarded a build, own, operate and transfer contract for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal. The project is scheduled for completion by July 2018 and will have the capacity to import up to 8.3bcm per annum. We have adjusted our forecasts to reflect this development. We forecast first LNG in 2018 at 0.8bcm, rising to reach 5.3bcm by the end of our forecast period in 2025.

  • The addition of LNG imports has also significantly strengthened Bahrain's domestic gas consumption outlook, which was previously restrained by supply. We now forecast gas consumption averaging 4.6% y-o-y for the next 10 years; this compares to our previous forecast of 2.6%, with LNG imports supporting the greater use of gas in industry.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
20
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
20
Refining
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2020-2025)
30
Gas Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Oil
34
Crude Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
36
Refined Fuels
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index
49
Market Overview
51
Bahrain Energy Market Overview
51
Regulatory Structure
51
Fiscal Regime
52
Licensing Regime
52
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Service Stations
54
Oil Pipelines
54
Gas Pipelines
55
LNG Terminals
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
BAPCO
58
Company Overview
58
Latest Company Updates
58
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Bahrain
59
Regional Overview
60
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
60
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging
60
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth
62
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre)
62
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
64
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas
65
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
67
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
68
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Source
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Table: Weighting
76

The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bahrain including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.