BMI View: While Bangladesh's ambitious goals for pharmaceutical exports are unlikely to be realised, the sector will see modest growth ahead. Emerging markets such as Myanmar will be stable sources of demand even as opportunities to export to the lucrative developed markets such as the US and the EU grow due to cost containment. A key risk to this stems from the commoditisation of the generic drug sector, which will place pressure on profit margins, and the competition from the more established Indian pharmaceutical sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BDT171.6bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015 to BDT190.8bn (USD2.4bn) in 2016; +11.2% in local currency terms and +9.1% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: BDT494.0bn (USD6.3bn) in 2015 to BDT554.9bn (USD7.0bn) in 2016; +12.3% in local currency terms and +10.3% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.989||2.195||2.395||2.621||2.865||3.128||3.413|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.15||1.13||1.10||1.08||1.06||1.04||1.02|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.2||34.7||34.4||34.1||34.0||33.9||34.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||5.646||6.318||6.967||7.678||8.429||9.219||10.048|
In Q216 Bangladesh's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged from last quarter at 41.8 out of 100. Bangladesh also retains its ranking position in BMI's RRI matrix, standing as the 15th most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 19 markets in the Asia Pacific region. Bangladesh's score is driven by a large pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 10.0 out of 20) and rapid drug market expansion (sector value growth score of 8.4 out of 12), but dragged down by low levels of drug spending per capita (spending per capita score of 1.2 out of 12) and limited intellectual property protection (patent respect score of 1.4 out of 7).
In February 2016, the Bangladesh Minister of Health noted that the country is at risk of a spread of swine flu following an outbreak in India.
February also saw calls by health rights groups to implement strong regulations governing the private sector. Acknowledging the shortcomings in the sector, authorities have noted that they intend to update their monitoring mechanism.
In January 2016, The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) reporting in January 2016 that medicine exports for the first six months of FY2015/16 (July 2015 to December 2015) amounted to BDT3bn (USD38mn). According to the EPB, this amount was 18% higher than the same period last year.
BMI Economic View
Bangladesh's economy will likely grow by 6.5% in FY2015/16 (July-June), similar to the rate in FY2014/15, on the back of robust expansions in the industrial and services sectors. However, the global economic slowdown and domestic security threats pose downside risks to our optimistic view.
BMI Political View
The recent series of domestic terror attacks in Bangladesh could pose downside risks to political stability as the ruling Awami League appears to be trying to gain political mileage by putting the blame on the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. The rise of domestic security threats could also have an adverse impact on the country's economic recovery as it could deter investors and weigh on the tourism sector.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bangladesh pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bangladesh, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bangladesh.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.