BMI View: Bangladesh's pharmaceutical export trajectory will be positive. Due to the tough competitive domestic environment, local drugmakers have expanded successfully into frontier and emerging markets in pursuit of commercial opportunities. With this as a foundation, developed countries will be a source of future growth for the country's exports as leading firms such as Beximco Pharmaceutical and Square Pharmaceuticals foray into lucrative markets such as the US and EU.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BDT171.6bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015 to BDT190.9bn (USD2.4bn) in 2016; +11.3% in local currency terms and +8.9% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: BDT419.1bn (USD5.4bn) in 2015 to BDT460.8bn (USD5.8bn) in 2016; +9.9% in local currency terms and +7.6% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.980||2.200||2.400||2.620||2.850||3.090||3.340|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.14||1.13||1.10||1.08||1.05||1.02||0.99|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||40.2||41.0||41.5||41.8||42.1||42.3||42.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.910||5.380||5.780||6.260||6.760||7.300||7.870|
In Q416 Bangladesh's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged from last quarter at 41.8 out of 100. Bangladesh also retains its ranking position in BMI's RRI matrix, standing as the 15th most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 19 markets in the Asia Pacific region. Bangladesh's score is driven by a large pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 10.0 out of 20) and rapid drug market expansion (sector value growth score of 8.4 out of 12), but dragged down by low levels of drug spending per capita (spending per capita score of 1.2 out of 12) and limited intellectual property protection (patent respect score of 1.4 out of 7).
In June 2016, the World Bank announced that it has approved USD150mn in additional funding to help improve Bangladesh's health system. This brings the total support from the World Bank on health projects to USD509mn. The support is expected to help the government sustain and improve immunisation coverage, improve deliveries for pregnant women at public facilities and tackle multi-drug resistant tuberculosis.
In July 2016, Bangladesh's Export Promotion Bureau noted that the country exported USD82mn of medicines for the fiscal year 2015-16. Top export markets include Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Vietnam and Kenya. The local industry's target for 2020 is to generate USD1bn by 2020 in medicine exports.
In August 2016, the High Court in Bangladesh ordered 34 drugmakers to stop manufacturing medicines following revelations that the firms had ignored a ban imposed in June. Under the original order, 11 were told to cease manufacturing and firms will now have till August 18 2016 to stop producing the products.
BMI Economic View
Following the Bangladesh Bank (BB)'s decision to cut its benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points in January, we expect the central bank to stand pat on its interest rate policy at its upcoming meeting in July due to volatile food inflation and rising core inflationary pressures. At the same time, a constructive growth outlook attributed to greater political stability and stable foreign currency earnings will also reduce the need for BB to significantly ease its policy rates. Instead, we believe that BB will continue its selective easing measures to direct investments to priority sectors of the economy.
BMI Political View
We highlight that Islamist violence and religiously motivated killings in Bangladesh could intensify over the coming months if the government continues to crackdown on political dissent and maintains the pace of war crime executions. This would pose downside risks to political stability in the country and weigh on the business environment. Accordingly, we note that a downgrade of Bangladesh's political risk index score is possible if the situation deteriorates.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bangladesh pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bangladesh, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bangladesh.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.