BMI View: Replicating India's success in the generic drugs sector will remain a challenge for Bangladesh. The country's strategy of leveraging upon an extension of the patent waiver for least developed countries presents limited opportunities, as many of these markets have low levels of healthcare access and per capita pharmaceutical spending. Moreover, the key growth opportunities for generics medicines lie in the emerging countries and selected developed markets where Bangladesh firms will have to work within the intellectual property framework.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BDT171.6bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015 to BDT190.8bn (USD2.4bn) in 2016; +11.2% in local currency terms and +9.1% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: BDT419bnbn (USD5.3bn) in 2015 to BDT460bnbn (USD5.7bn) in 2016; +9.9% in local currency terms and +7.6% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.990||2.200||2.400||2.620||2.860||3.130||3.410|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.15||1.13||1.10||1.08||1.06||1.04||1.02|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||40.5||41.0||41.4||41.9||42.4||42.8||43.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.910||5.380||5.780||6.260||6.760||7.300||7.870|
In Q316 Bangladesh's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged from last quarter at 41.8 out of 100. Bangladesh also retains its ranking position in BMI's RRI matrix, standing as the 15th most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 19 markets in the Asia Pacific region. Bangladesh's score is driven by a large pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 10.0 out of 20) and rapid drug market expansion (sector value growth score of 8.4 out of 12), but dragged down by low levels of drug spending per capita (spending per capita score of 1.2 out of 12) and limited intellectual property protection (patent respect score of 1.4 out of 7).
In March 2016, Bangladesh confirmed its first case of the Zika virus from a 67-year-old man who has not been overseas. The patient lives in the southeastern port city of Chittagong.
In April 2016, local news sources noted that the government was recommended by a parliamentary standing committee to cancel the drug manufacturing licenses of 20 drugmakers. Some of the firms singled out include Exim Pharmaceutical, Avert Pharma, Skylab Pharmaceutical and Rimo Chemical.
That same month, India and Bangladesh agreed to deepen cooperation in the healthcare sector. According to local news sources, India's help can come in the form of establishing medical universities as well as training doctors and nurses in the country.
BMI Economic View
Bangladesh's real GDP growth will likely remain stable at 6.5% in FY2015/16 (July-June) before picking up slightly to 6.7% in FY2016/17, aided by an accommodative monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, and the return of a stable political climate. In particular, the government's ongoing focus on public investment into supporting infrastructures should help to attract more investment and boost productivity in the manufacturing sector, thus allowing Bangladesh to retain its dominant position in the global garment industry.
BMI Political View
The number of domestic terror attacks in Bangladesh could increase over the coming months, posing further downside risk to political and social stability as the Awami League government continues to dismiss the presence of IS in the country and downplay the scale of the threat. Accordingly, we have downgraded Bangladesh's Short-Term Political Risk score to 62.4, from 64.2 previously. This could have an adverse impact on the country's economic growth prospects as investors, expatriates and tourists may be deterred. That said, the recent establishment of a counter-terrorism special task force should help to alleviate some security risk concerns.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bangladesh pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bangladesh, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bangladesh.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.