BMI View: Bangladesh's long-term potential will be the central factor shaping its attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. Rising household incomes - coupled with improving healthcare access, driven largely by the influx of private hospitals into the country - bode well for sustained strong growth from a low base. In the short term, growth opportunities lie largely in driving higher volumes and are concentrated in major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BDT171.6bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015 to BDT190.8bn (USD2.4bn) in 2016; +11.2% in local currency terms and +8.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: BDT419.1bn (USD5.4bn) in 2015 to BDT460.8bn (USD5.8bn) in 2016; +9.9% in local currency terms and +7.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, national sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.976||2.201||2.395||2.621||2.865||3.128||3.413|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.14||1.13||1.09||1.07||1.05||1.02||1.00|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||40.2||40.9||41.4||41.9||42.4||42.8||43.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.911||5.375||5.785||6.258||6.764||7.302||7.875|
In Q117, Bangladesh's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged from last quarter at 41.8 out of 100. Bangladesh also retains its ranking position in BMI's RRI matrix, standing as the 15th most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 19 markets in the Asia Pacific region. Bangladesh's score is driven by a large pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 10.0 out of 20) and rapid drug market expansion (sector value growth score of 8.4 out of 12), but is dragged down by low levels of drug spending per capita (spending per capita score of 1.2 out of 12) and limited intellectual property protection (patent respect score of 1.4 out of 7).
In September 2016, Bangladesh's minister of health, Mohammed Nasim, noted that the country is vulnerable to Zika. In particular, he noted that while there had not been any confirmed cases in the country yet, the Aedes mosquito is prevalent in Bangladesh. Nasim also alluded to the possibility of the disease spreading from neighbouring countries, highlighting that all countries in Asia are at risk.
In October 2016, Beacon Pharma signed a deal with Karellac, a Turkish-based drugmaker. Under the deal, the Bangladesh pharmaceutical firm will export anti-cancer and biotechnology medicines to Turkey.
BMI Economic View
In line with our view, Bangladesh Bank (BB) left its benchmark repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 6.75% and 4.75%, respectively, during its July 2016 policy meeting, while pledging to maintain its selective easing measures. By allowing strategic sectors to access affordable loans, we believe that selective easing may support near-term growth, which we expect to come in at 6.5% y-o-y in 2016. However, increased credit growth will contribute to inflation risks.
BMI Political View
We have downgraded Bangladesh's short-term political risk index score to 61.0 from 62.7 previously, to reflect the intensification of Islamist violence and terrorist attacks in the country. We highlight that the situation could worsen over the coming months if the Awami League government continues to view the ongoing terrorist threats from the narrow prism of party politics, and denies the presence of foreign-linked Islamist terror groups in the country.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bangladesh pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bangladesh, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bangladesh.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.