BMI View: Sustained growth in Bangladesh ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare market will continue to translate in to commercial opportunities for drugmakers over the forecast period. A large generic medicine segment will continue to account for the lion 's share of the market, although patented products will continue to gain market share as affordability levels improve and healthcare development gradually materialises. In the medium term, the one-off doubling of government wages and an increase in budget allocation for the annual development program in FY2015/16 pose upside risks to market headlines driven by higher consumption. Over the long term, low-cost manufacturing will increase the market attractiveness and contribute to growing fixed investment and drug exports .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BDT154.24bn (USD1.99bn) in 2014 to BDT171.62bn (USD2.19bn) in 2015; +11.27% in local currency terms and +10.35% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: BDT437.86bn (USD5.65bn) in 2014 to BDT494.03bn (USD6.32bn) in 2015; +12.8% in local currency terms and +11.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.778||1.989||2.195||2.395||2.621||2.865||3.128|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.18||1.15||1.13||1.10||1.08||1.06||1.04|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.9||35.2||34.7||34.4||34.1||34.0||33.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.955||5.646||6.318||6.967||7.678||8.429||9.219|
Risk/Reward Index: In Q116 Bangladesh RRI score remains unchanged from last quarter at 41.8 out of 100. Bangladesh also retains its ranking position in BMI's RRI matrix, standing as the 15th most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 19 markets in the Asia Pacific region. Bangladesh's score is driven by a large pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 10.0 out of 20) and rapid drug market expansion (sector value growth score of 8.4 out of 12), but dragged down by low levels of drug spending per capita (spending per capita score of 1.2 out of 12) and limited intellectual property protection (patent respect score of 1.4 out of 7).
Nepal and Bangladesh joined Uganda in demanding a permanent waiver on drug patents in showdown talks at the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, although the US is still refusing to allow a permanent waiver on drug patents.
UK-based drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) plans to expand its business in Bangladesh with the aim of meeting increasing demand for pharmaceutical and healthcare products, intending to invest GBP40mn (USD61.36mn) within a year for the enhancement and expansion of its products, according to Ramil Burden, Vice President of GSK's Africa and developing countries division.
Beximco is spearheading Bangladesh's pharmaceutical industry by taking advantage of Bangladesh's low-cost R&D base and creating a successful strategy to develop products with a focus on the export market; the latest data suggests Beximco's FY15 results will exceed BDT12bn (USD154mn) for the first time.
Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD) announced a strategic partnership with leading Bangladeshi pharmaceutical company Healthcare Pharmaceuticals Limited (HPL) that will enable MSD to introduce and distribute its best-in-class and first-in-class products for patients across Bangladesh.
BMI Economic View: Bangladesh's economy will likely grow by 6.5% in FY2015/16 (July-June), similar to the rate in FY2014/15, on the back of robust expansion in the industrial and services sectors. However, global economic slowdown and domestic security threats pose downside risks to our optimistic view.
BMI Political View: The stabilisation of the political climate is likely to boost investor confidence and provide support for Bangladesh's industrial and services sector over a multi-quarter horizon. However, we caution that domestic security threats pose downside risks to our view.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bangladesh pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bangladesh, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bangladeshi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bangladesh.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.