Belarus Telecommunications Report

Published 25 November 2014

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Belarus Telecommunications Report

BMI View:   Belarus continues to exhibit signs of growth across its mobile, fixed, broadband and pay-TV markets, however, the industry remains underdeveloped compared to the rest of the region. This is due to the large involvement of the state in the market, from its stake in mobile operator MTS , its full ownership of fixed-line monopoly Beltelecom and through the creation of beCloud to deploy a wholesale national LTE network. Attempts to sell its stake in MTS have floundered again in 2014, as the price remains too high for the risky business environment. Demand for data services is evident in the market, with 3G uptake growing strongly, as well as moves to FTTH and IPTV. However, high inflation and Belarus' inextricable ties to the Russian economy will dampen the country's growth prospects over the next few years , informing our expectation that the telecoms industry will continue to underperform its regional peers.

Key data

  • Mobile subscriptions returned to year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in Q214, with an increase of 4.6% from Q213. The market totalled11.628mn and the penetration rate improved to 124.9%, a record high.

  • Wireless broadband subscriptions grew by 14.5% in 2013, reaching 5.664mn individuals and outperforming fixed broadband connections. This has been a result of cheap handset and tablet driven offers and extensive coverage by operators.

  • Fixed-line subscriptions continued to grow despite the global decline in the industry from fixed-to-mobile substitution. Subscriptions increased by 1.8% in 2013 and Beltelecom maintains its monopoly position and pushes multi-play packages.

Key Trends And Developments

CDMA mobile operator Belcel issued a statement saying that it will stop providing its voice connection and internet services from 24 January 2014. The Ministry of ITC decided not to extend its licence, because of insufficient network coverage. Belcel has provided services using CDMA technology and has worked on the Belarusian...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Belize
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Belize 2013-2019)
11
Costa Rica
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Costa Rica 2013-2019)
14
El Salvador
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (El Salvador 2013-2019)
17
Guatemala
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Guatemala 2013-2019)
19
Honduras
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Honduras 2013-2019)
21
Nicaragua
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nicaragua 2013-2019)
23
Panama
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Panama 2013-2019)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Table: Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q315
33
Market Overview
34
Belize
34
Key Developments
34
Table: Belize Telemedia Ltd Subscribers ('000)
36
Table: Belize - Mobile Market, December 2014
38
Fixed Line
39
Broadband
40
Industry Trends & Developments
41
Latin America Mobile Content
43
Table: Most Popular Sites In Brazil
45
Costa Rica
48
Mobile
48
Table: Mobile Market, December 2013
53
Fixed Line
54
Broadband
56
Table: Fixed Internet Market Share, 2012
58
Industry Trends And Developments
58
El Salvador
60
Mobile
60
Table: Mobile Market, June 2014
63
Fixed Line
66
Broadband
68
Industry Trends And Developments
69
Guatemala
70
Mobile
70
Table: Mobile Market, June 2014
74
Fixed Line
74
Table: Guatemala's Fixed-Line Market, December 2013
75
Broadband
76
Industry Trends And Developments
76
Honduras
78
Mobile
78
Table: Mobile Market, June 2014
82
Fixed Line
82
Table: Fixed Lines In Service, 2007-2012 ('000)
83
Table: Telecoms Usage, Minutes, 2004-2011 (mn)
83
Broadband
84
Table: Internet Market 2005-2010
84
Industry Trends And Developments
84
Nicaragua
85
Mobile
85
Table: Mobile Market, June 2014
89
Fixed Line
89
Broadband
90
Table: Internet Market Share (%)
93
Industry Trends And Developments
93
Panama
94
Mobile
94
Table: Mobile Market, September 2014
98
Fixed Line
98
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2007-2013 ('000)
99
Broadband
100
Regulatory Development
104
Table: Central America's Telecoms Regulators
104
Belize
104
Table: Belize Termination Rates, August 2011
104
Costa Rica
105
El Salvador
106
Guatemala
108
Honduras
108
Nicaragua
109
Panama
110
Company Profile
111
Millicom International Cellular
111
Am-rica M-vil
115
Regional Overview
119
Table: SES-10
124
Table: SES-14
125
Glossary
126
Table: Glossary Of Terms
126
Methodology
128
Industry Forecast Methodology
128
Sources
130
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
130
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
131
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
132

The Belarus Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Belarus's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Belarus Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Belarus.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belarusian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Belarus's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc