BMI View: Belgium ' s steel sector is starting to enter a period of relative stability. Having witnessed significant decline over recent years, we are now beginning to see production levels stabilising due to gradually improving consumption levels and the diminished output capacity of producers.
As we move into 2015, there are increasing signs that the depression in Belgian steel production has bottomed out. Total output grew by 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first eight months of 2014 to September, with full year growth estimated at 3.6%. With production forecast to average just over 1% a year over 2015-2018, we expect output to have found a stable footing following periods of sharp contraction, intermingled with sharp rebounds over the past few years.
While our outlook for the sector appears increasingly positive, we note that the current levels of growth are partly the result of low base effects as output has contracted significantly from pre-downturn levels. Producers, including the country's largest steel mill, Arcelormittal, have either cut or temporarily sidelined capacity to reflect weakening market conditions.
Indeed, consumption levels, both domestically and across the wider European market, remain considerably below long-term averages and continued to fall through 2013. Uncertainty surrounding steel demand across the region has been promulgated by ongoing weakness in the major European economies, which also include Belgium's major export markets.
The concern of many producers has been mirrored in recent comments by the World Steel Organisation, who has voiced fears that mills will have to make significant redundancies if consumption levels continue to bump along the bottom.
Domestic crude steel consumption is expected to follow production in remaining weak over the mid-term, with average growth forecast at 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2018.
The Belgium Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Belgium.
BMI's Belgium Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Belgium.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Belgium to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgium metals market.
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BMI Industry View
A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.
Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).
Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.
The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.