Belgium Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Belgium Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

The Belgian economy has enjoyed a relatively stronger economic recovery than other eurozone member states, which has lifted its plastic and rubber output. However, the high degree of financial and trade integration with the eurozone mean the economy is highly exposed to a regional downturn, and the impact of Brexit and this instability will be reflected in Belgium's petrochemicals outlook.

Belgium benefits from a massive, highly integrated refining and petrochemicals hub in and around the Port of Antwerp, which is the lynchpin of both the country's export-oriented manufacturer sector and the supplier of energy resources and derivatives to neighbouring countries. In the first eight months of 2016, the plastic and rubber sectors performed better than they had in 2015 with growth of 2.0% and 4.8% respectively, although chemicals output fell by a further 4.1%, marking a second successive year of decline.

The attractiveness of the Belgian petrochemicals industry and growth in European propylene demand has prompted Borealis to look to create an on-purpose propylene investment at Kallo, near Antwerp. In September 2016, Borealis announced a feasibility study for a new, world-scale propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant, which is due to be concluded in mid-2017 with a final investment decision in Q318 and potential start-up in H221. The new PDH plant would have a targeted production capacity of 740,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), making it one of the largest PDH facilities in the world. The Borealis Kallo location has been chosen due to its excellent logistical position and its experience in propylene production and handling.

  • In 2016, Belgium had ethylene capacity of 2.54mn tpa with intermediate and aromatics capacities of 870,000tpa benzene, 890,000tpa ethylbenzene, 1.94mn tpa ethylene dichloride, 810,000tpa vinyl chloride monomer and 600,000tpa xylenes. In terms of polymers, Belgium has capacities of 1.64mn tpa high density polyethylene, 930,000tpa low density polyethylene, 2.1mn tpa polypropylene, 475,000tpa polyvinyl chloride and 645,000tpa polystyrene. These capacities are unlikely to change over the next five years.

  • A major challenge could come from outside Europe with Belgium's Port of Antwerp becoming the favoured point of entry for Iranian petrochemicals, which are set to flood the global market when sanctions are due to be lifted some time in 2016. Iranian polymers are likely to be more competitively priced, and with Europe a major target market, prices of basic polymers are expected to be depressed further. While low naphtha - 70% of total feedstock - protected Belgian margins in 2015, lower product prices could squeeze profits and undermine operations.

  • Belgium scores 71.4 points in BMI's Europe Risk/Rewards Index for the petrochemical industry, a decline of 0.8 points since the previous year due to a significant decline in its country and market risk ratings. Nevertheless, it retained its fourth place in the European rankings, 0.2 points behind the UK and 0.1 point ahead of France. While it is unlikely to rise up the rankings over coming quarters, it could increase its lead over neighbouring France where capacities are in the process of being cut.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Belgium Sector Data And Forecasts, 2012-2020
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Table: Economic Activity (Belgium 2010-2019)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
23
Russia and Ukraine Under Pressure
26
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
27
Belgium Risk/Reward Index
28
Market Overview
29
Table: Belgium Olefins Facilities
31
Table: Belgium Aromatics And Intermediates Facilities
31
Table: Belgium Polyolefins Facilities
32
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Upstream And Refining
34
Table: Refineries In Belgium
35
Company Profile
36
Total Petrochemicals
36
Table: Total financial results
38
Solvay SA
39
Table: Solvay Financial Results (EURmn)
40
Regional Overview
41
Energy Prices And Greek Crisis Will Determine Margins
41
Delays and Mothballing in the East
43
Global Industry Overview
49
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe
49
2016 Feedstock Outlook
51
Could US Gas Run out-
52
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn
53
Long-term Outlook
53
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
57
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belgium 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belgium 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belgium 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Belgium 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belgium 1990-2025)
61
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Belgium Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Belgium Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belgian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Belgian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Belgian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.