BMI View : Governments in developed states such as Belgium will need to work to maintain the countries' long-term attractiveness as sites for clinical trials, especially as the cost of conducting clinical research is forecast to rise. An increasing number of clinical trials are being conducted in emerging markets, mainly due to lower costs. The attractiveness of these non-traditional destinations is boosted by improving healthcare infrastructure, more and better trained medical professionals, and a growing requirement for local trials in the pharmaceutical approval process. Despite this, we note that the majority of clinical trials will continue to take place in developed countries.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From EUR5.83bn (USD7.81bn) in 2014 to EUR5.85bn (USD6.43bn) in 2015; 0.33% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: From EUR43.86bn (USD58.77bn) in 2014 to EUR44.96bn (USD49.46bn) 2015; +2.5% in local currency terms and -15.9% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.697||7.807||6.430||6.306||6.556||6.952||7.374|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.48||1.45||1.43||1.40||1.36||1.34||1.32|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||13.6||13.3||13.0||12.8||12.6||12.4||12.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||56.507||58.769||49.457||49.359||52.110||55.973||60.051|
In BMI's Q1 2016 Western European Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Belgium scores 68.5 out of 100. This places the country above Denmark and Sweden and below Germany and Finland. While underperforming, in terms of volume, high value in the Belgian pharmaceutical market, relative to the region, is typically made possible by some of the highest drug prices and per capita spending on healthcare in Western Europe. Furthermore, the country's proportion of pensionable population is high, which will translate into greater underlying demand for drugs as the elderly face deteriorating health.
In October 2015, the Belgian government reached an agreement on the country's healthcare budget for 2016 - expenditure is set to reach EUR23.62bn. Federal health minister Maggie De Block will cut 2016's healthcare department budget by EUR408mn but insisted patients will not feel the cuts.
In October 2015, Health Minister Maggie De Block stated that amendments to the third party payment system in Belgium will make healthcare more accessible to patients on low incomes.
In October 2015, UCB raised its 2015 outlook after posting strong sales of its three new drugs and a continuous increase in sales of its epilepsy drug Keppra (levetiracetam).
B MI Economic View
While private consumption will be the key driver for economic growth in Belgium, increasing demand from the eurozone will help boost exports' contribution to growth in the coming years. As imports will be rising as well, economic growth will follow a moderate yet stable pace over the short and medium term.
BMI Political View
As with other Western European countries, the number of migrants entering Belgium will rise considerably in upcoming years, but the country will not become a preferred end-destination for migrants such as Germany and Sweden. Support for the main anti-immigration party in Belgium will remain relatively low, due to the prominence of language issues and the economy among the electorate.
The Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belgium pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Belgium, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.