BMI View : Belgium offers a stable pharmaceutical market with high per capita spending on medicines. However, h eightened political uncertainty and a regional economic downturn will overshadow Belgium's economic outlook for the foreseeable future. In the near term, the prospect of a 'hard Brexit', in which the UK reaches no deal with the EU for preferential access to the common market, poses the greatest risk to healthcare and wider economic growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From EUR5.84bn (USD6.47bn) in 2015 to EUR5.89bn (USD6.30bn) in 2016; +1.0% in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: From EUR42.12bn (USD46.72bn) in 2015 to EUR43.06bn (USD46.07bn) 2016; +2.2% in local currency terms and -1.4% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.730||6.473||6.305||6.267||6.183||6.169||6.289|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.45||1.42||1.39||1.37||1.35||1.33||1.32|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||14.1||13.9||13.7||13.5||13.4||13.3||13.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||54.716||46.716||46.070||46.262||46.075||46.386||47.708|
In BMI's Q117 Western European Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Belgium scores 68.8 out of 100, dropping the country to ninth position out of the 15 markets in the region from last quarter. Belgium performs well in the Rewards category on account of its high per capita drug consumption, but is closer to the regional average in terms of Risk due to its high levels of government bureaucracy.
In September 2016, AFT Pharmaceuticals announced a new agreement with privately-owned pharmaceutical company, Therabel Pharma, to license the product line of its patented combination painkiller, Maxigesic, to Belgium and Luxembourg.
In September 2016, Philadelphia drugmaker, Lannett Company, agreed to pay USD1.23bn for Kremers Urban Pharmaceuticals, as part of an extensive cost savings programme. The US specialty generics company is a subsidiary of Belgium-based UCB S.A.
BMI Economic View
The Belgian economy will lag behind the wider eurozone in real GDP growth terms over the coming years. Faster rates of economic growth will also be restricted both by Belgium's swelling public debt burden as well as its worsening demographic profile. Even with relatively substantial levels of immigration, the country's ageing population will place a bigger strain on the state finances, the healthcare system, and the debt burden on the active population.
BMI Political View
Belgium's failure to develop an adequate response to the threat of terrorism means that further attacks are a possibility. Further, ongoing fiscal austerity and labour market reforms will dent already limited support for the government in French-speaking Wallonia, and a further deterioration in Flanders-Walloon relations lies ahead.
The Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belgium pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Belgium, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.