BMI View : Belgium offers a stable pharmaceutical market with high per capita spe nding on medicines. However, drugmakers will increasingly find the government less willing to reimburse expensive, innovative medicines as it struggles to hit its fiscal targets.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: From EUR5.84bn (USD6.47bn) in 2015 to EUR5.89bn (USD6.30bn) in 2016; +1.0% in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: From EUR42.12bn (USD46.72bn) in 2015 to EUR43.06bn (USD46.07bn) 2016; +2.2% in local currency terms and -1.4% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.730||6.470||6.300||6.570||6.970||7.400||7.550|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.45||1.42||1.39||1.37||1.35||1.33||1.32|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||14.1||13.9||13.7||13.6||13.4||13.3||13.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||54.720||46.720||46.070||48.460||51.950||55.660||57.250|
In BMI's Q416 Western European Risk/Reward Index, Belgium scores 73.6 out of 100, maintaining the country's fourth position out of the 15 markets in the region from last quarter. Belgium performs well in the Rewards category on account of its high per capita drug consumption, but is closer to the regional average in terms of Risk due to its high levels of government bureaucracy.
In July 2016, Syndax Pharmaceuticals announced it has secured an exclusive global licence from Belgian-based UCB's UCB6352, a high affinity antibody that binds to the colony stimulating factor 1 receptor (CSF-1R). Under the terms of the agreement, UCB will receive an upfront payment, milestones and tiered royalties on net sales, with Syndax responsible for development, manufacturing and worldwide commercialization.
In July 2016, Bellerophon Therapeutics announced it had received a health authority approval in Belgium to commence the Phase 2 trial for INOpulse, its patented and proprietary pulsatile nitric oxide [NO] delivery device, to treat pulmonary hypertension in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (PH-COPD). This follows results from its Phase 2a study and proof of mechanism work, which indicated that INOpulse could be both safe and effective in PH-COPD.
BMI Economic View
The Belgian economy will lag behind the wider eurozone in real GDP growth terms over the coming years. We forecast real GDP growth to average 1.3% over the next decade, slightly below our average estimates for the currency union. However, relatively sluggish rates of growth will not pose systemic threats to financial stability in the country. Belgium will remain one of the region's most developed economies, with its citizens likely to continue enjoying relatively low levels of unemployment and high living standards.
BMI Political View
Political instability will remain highly elevated in Belgium over the coming quarters, even by historical standards. Belgium's divided regional system of parliaments means that forming governments has been difficult historically (it took over 500 days in 2011) and making decisions at federal level is often problematic. We believe 2016 and 2017 will be remembered as exceptionally difficult years for the government even by Belgian standards.
The Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belgium pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Belgium, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Belgian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.