Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

Published 26 January 2015

  • 84 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Quarterly growth on the Bosnian mobile market remained flat in Q214, despite a relatively low penetration rate, owing to sluggish economic growth and discounting of inactive SIM cards. However, a considerable proportion of the population still do not have regular access to mobile services, a situation we attribute to poor network coverage in underserved areas and the inability of low income earners in these areas to afford the service. With the uptake of 3G and multiplay services in urban areas, the operators are less inclined to embark on expensive and less rewarding network deployment projects in rural areas. We expect this to weigh on mobile subscriptions growth over our forecast period, through to 2018, with the penetration rate remaining below 100%.

Key Data

  • The mobile market was flat at 0.4%quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214, as penetration declined to 88.1%.

  • The latest regulatory data show that the total number of active fixed telephone lines of dominant operators was almost flat quarter on quarter with 0.01% growth at 869,309.We estimate that the broadband market grew by 11.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013, driven by rising demand for mobile data and cable broadband connections.

Key Trends & Developments

Consolidation continued in the fixed-line sector with BlicNet receiving regulatory approval to acquire Telrad Net and United Group, the Dutch holding firm controlled by US-based Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), entering in talks to buy Bosnian cable television and broadband internet service provider M&H Company. These developments are in line with our view that consolidation will invigorate Bosnia's fixed-line sector by giving the alternative operators sufficient scale to challenge the dominance of the three incumbent operators.

In a recent regulatory filing, cable TV operator Telemach has revealed plans to acquire five small local cable TV operators. Two of these - Lukavac-based BHB Cable TV and Sarajevo-based HKB Net - had...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT Mobile
8
SWOT Wireline
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
15
Wireline
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2011-2018)
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q115
24
Market Overview
26
Mobile
26
Regional Overview
26
Table: Regional Comparison, 2013
27
Key Developments
27
Mobile Growth
27
Subscriber Mix
29
Usage
31
MVNOs
32
Networks
32
Mobile Content
35
Mobile Operator Data
38
Table: Market Overview
38
Table: BH Mobile
38
Table: Mobilne Srpske
39
Table: HT Mostar
39
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
40
Wireline
44
Key Developments
44
Fixed-Line
44
Broadband
46
Pay-TV And Converged Services
50
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2011
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Table: Selected Developments
55
Regulatory Development
56
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
56
Competitive Landscape
59
Table: Key Players
59
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
59
Company Profile
60
BH Telecom
60
Regional Overview
65
Demographic Forecast
71
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
72
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
73
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
74
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
74
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc