Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

Published 15 July 2015

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The leading Balkan states - including Bosnia & Herzegovina - implemented new, lower, mobile roaming rates at the beginning of July 2015. This will put pressure on operators to become more innovative with regards to services and pricing and those with a wireline and/or pay-TV business will be best positioned to weather the fall in core service revenues. The two struggling MVNOs will struggle to operate profitably, benefiting cable companies looking to break into the mobile market with low-value offers. The government is seriously considering privatising BH Telecom and HT Eronet ; greater access to finance will improve these players' ability to invest in new infrastructure and services, but will still have to wait for consumer spending to catch up.

Key Data

  • Market saturation and operators' efforts to shed inactive prepaid subscribers mean that mobile subscription growth will be volatile through to 2019, reaching 3.402mn users; the penetration rate will reach 89.6% in 2019.

  • 3G adoption rates are modest at best. BMI estimates there were 1.708mn 3G subscriptions in 2014; this figure will rise to 2.321mn by 2019, or 61.1% of the mobile market. Mobile financial services and 'TV everywhere' services will add momentum to growth over the next five years.

  • Broadband growth will be muted, given the slow pace of investment in infrastructure. Subscription numbers will rise from 712,000 in 2014 to 810,000 by 2019, a penetration rate of 23.1%.

Risk/Rewards Index

Bosnia sits at the very bottom of BMI's Risk/Reward Index for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) telecoms sector, scoring 33.1 out of a potential 100 points. Although consolidation within the cable and alternative operators sector is a positive move, the dominance of the incumbent operators will be difficult to break. High prices for mobile and broadband services act as disincentives for consumers to switch providers and the incumbents have little need to innovate or compete on pricing...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2012-2019)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q4 2015
20
Market Overview
22
Industry Market Overview
22
Regional Overview
22
Table: Regional Comparison, 2014
22
Key Developments
22
Mobile
23
Broadband
26
Pay-TV
28
Wireline Voice
29
Regulatory Development
32
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
32
Competitive Landscape
35
Table: Key Players
35
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
35
Mobile Operator Data
35
Table: Mobile Market Overview
35
Table: BH Telecom
36
Table: Mobilne Srpske (MTS)
37
Table: HT Mobilne (HT Eronet)
38
Company Profile
39
BH Telecom
39
Demographic Forecast
44
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
45
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
45
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
46
Table: Population By Age Group (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
46
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
47
Glossary
49
Table: Glossary Of Terms
49
Methodology
51
Industry Forecast Methodology
51
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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