Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

Published 28 April 2015

  • 78 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The Bosnian telecommunications sector remains one of the least attractive markets in the Central and Emerging Europe (CEE) region. Although alternative wireline operators are beginning to make headway, the most potent of these are owned by Telekom Slovenije , a weakening presence on the international investment stage. Consolidating these assets under a stronger player would be nefi t Bosnian consumers. The mobile market is recording nominal growth due to saturation and low consumer spending power conspires to impede the take-up of 3G services. The rollout of 4G would encounter similar headwinds. Convergence is providing the only significant growth driver as consumers look to maximise value for money by buying three or more services in a single package. MVNOs should be able to capitalise on these trends, but they have made disappointing progress so far.

Key Data

  • Mobile subscriptions are forecast to rise by 2.1% from 3.491mn in 2014 to 3.565mn by 2019; the penetration rate will reach 93.9% in 2019.

  • 3G adoption rates are modest at best. BMI estimates there were 1.708mn 3G subscriptions in 2014; this figure will rise to 2.321mn by 2019, or 65.1% of the mobile market. Mobile financial services and 'TV everywhere' services will add momentum to growth over the next five years.

  • Broadband growth will mostly be driven by the wireline sector, given the muted response to 3G. Subscription numbers will rise from 712,000 in 2014 to 810,000 by 2019, a penetration rate of 23.1%.

Key Trends & Developments

Telekom Slovenije and Serbia-based United Group are driving much-needed consolidation in Bosnia's fragmented wireline sector. Telekom Slovenije is also the owner of the companies behind Bosnia's new MVNOs; combining these with its wireline assets will create a player capable of disrupting a market that increasingly favours converged and multi-play services.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT Mobile
8
SWOT Wireline
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2012-2019)
16
Wireline
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Bosnia-Herzegovina 2012-2019)
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central & Emerging Europe Telecoms Index, Q3 2015
24
Market Overview
26
Mobile
26
Regional Overview
26
Table: Regional Comparison, 2014
26
Key Developments
27
Mobile Growth
27
Subscriber Mix
29
Usage
30
MVNOs
31
Networks
32
Mobile Content
34
Mobile Operator Data
36
Table: Market Overview
36
Table: BH Mobile
37
Table: Mobilne Srpske
38
Table: HT Mostar
38
Wireline
39
Key Developments
39
Fixed-Line
39
Broadband
41
Pay-TV And Converged Services
45
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
47
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Table: Selected Developments
52
Regulatory Development
53
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
53
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: Key Players
56
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators (USDmn)
56
Company Profile
57
BH Telecom
57
Regional Overview
62
Business Divisions
62
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000)
62
Financial Performance
63
Geographical Performance
63
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
64
Domestic Market
64
Export Markets
65
Ericsson Market
65
Outlook
65
Table: Selected ENT Contracts, 2013-2014
66
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1990-2025)
70
Glossary
72
Table: Glossary Of Terms
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sources
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
78

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc