Botswana Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Botswana Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Botswana's mining industry has considerable potential, with sizeable mineral deposits complemented by a stable political climate and supportive regulatory environment.

Botswana Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UN Data
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 3.00 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 3.90 4.00 4.25 4.50 3.50 2.50

Latest Updates & Forecasts

  • In April 2016, UK-owned diamond exploring company Botswana Diamonds begun drilling at the PL260 and PL21 licences in the Orapa mining province. The company secured exploration rights for the area in 2015 as part of a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Russian miner, Alrosa. In the same month, the company announced its interim results for the six-month period ending December 31, 2015, reporting a net loss of USD388,000. Botswana Diamonds chairman John Teeling attributed the loss to the current depression in global diamond prices and a lack of investor interest in exploration companies.

  • BMI's short-term outlook for Botswana's mining sector remains bearish, though we see production recovering from 2017 as global diamond prices stabilise.

  • We have raised our coal price forecasts due to a more aggressive contraction in global mine production than we anticipated, predominately in China. We now forecast Newcastle coal to average USD53.0/tonne in 2016 (previously USD51.0/tonne) and USD57.0/tonne in 2017 tonne (previously USD52.0/tonne) ( see: 'Thermal Coal: Upward Revision On Supply Curb s', June 23 2016).

  • In March 2016, the CEO of state-owned Botswana Oil Company, Willie Mokgatlhe, said that the company was exploring opportunities for coal beneficiation. The move would see the government start to leverage the country's considerable coal reserves by converting them into liquid energy products.

  • Although Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s coal production growth will remain positive, low coal prices will reduce the sector's overall investment attractiveness, limiting new projects coming online. In 2016, SSA will produce 270mn tonnes (mnt) of coal, accounting for 3.7% of global coal production. We expect SSA's share to increase marginally to 3.8% by 2020 on the back of a number of new projects coming online.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Botswana Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Diamonds: Foreign Interest Growing Despite Price Constraints
10
Latest Updates
10
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Botswana 2012-2020)
10
Structural Trends
11
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects
14
Coal: Government Recognising Industry's Potential
15
Latest Developments
15
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2012-2020)
15
Structural Trends
16
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits
17
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2012-2020)
19
Industry Risk/Reward Index
20
Botswana Risk/Reward Index
20
Rewards
20
Industry Rewards
20
Country Rewards
20
Risks
20
Industry Risks
20
Country Risks
21
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
21
Key Takeaways
21
Latest Revisions
22
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
23
Regulatory Development
24
Commodities Forecast
25
Commodities Outlook
25
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
25
Competitive Landscape
26
International & Domestic Key Players
26
Table: Africa - Largest Mining companies
27
Company Profile
30
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q2 2016
30
Company Strategy
33
Latest Results
35
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
37
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel
38
Company Overview
39
Company Strategy
40
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis
42
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
43
Regional Overview
44
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
49
Methodology
51
Industry Forecast Methodology
51
Sources
52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
54

The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.