Botswana Mining Report

Published 21 May 2015

  • 76 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Botswana Mining Report

BMI View: Botswana will remain a leading destination for global mining investment over the next few years as the country's strong regulation and attractive business environment draws investors to it s diamond, coal and other mineral reserves. However, we note that a lack of diversity remains the country's Achilles heel, with Botswana vulnerable to growing competition from other diamond-producing countries in the region.

We maintain a constructive outlook for Botswana's mining sector over our forecast period to 2019. Diamonds will remain the mainstay of Botswana's mining sector, boosted by new projects planned by Debswana, Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond Corp and with significant exploration activity also taking place across the country. In addition, we expect coal will become an increasingly prominent component of the wider mining sector and forecast production will accelerate in the years ahead. In total we forecast the country's mining industry value will see average annual growth of 4.0% to 2019, reaching a value of USD3.7bn by 2019.

Coal Mining On The Rise
Botswana - Select Minerals Production

Diversity A Key Goal

Slow economic recovery in the US and Europe, two of the main export markets for Botswana's diamond production, has prevented more rapid growth in the country over the past few years. Therefore, the government is keen to reduce reliance on diamond revenue and is also wary of increased competition following growth in mining production in neighbouring states, including Zimbabwe and Angola. These factors are reflected in Botswana's slip to second place in BMI's Africa Mining Risk/Reward Index in Q315, which is largely on account of the country's reduced score for industry rewards.

We highlight strong growth potential for the country's coal sector in particular, an area which remains significantly undeveloped, despite Botswana's coal reserves being the largest in Africa. Fast growth from a low base will be driven by companies including Anglo...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Botswana - Major New Mining Projects
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Output To Grow In Supportive Climate
12
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects
14
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2011-2019)
15
Coal: Unique Long-Term Growth Potential
16
Obstacles Won't Deter Export Growth
17
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits
18
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2011-2019)
19
Industry Risk/Reward Index
20
Botswana Risk/Reward Index
20
Rewards
20
Industry Rewards
20
Country Rewards
20
Risks
21
Industry Risks
21
Country Risks
21
Table: Botswana - Mining Industry Forecasts
22
Africa Risk/Reward Index
22
High Risks, Large Rewards
22
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
25
Regulatory Development
26
Corruption
27
Tax Regime
28
Table: Botswana - Political Overview
28
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy
31
Ferrous Metals
31
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
31
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
33
Non-Ferrous Metals
36
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
36
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
38
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
39
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
40
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
41
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Competitive Landscape
45
International & Domestic Key Players
45
Company Profile
47
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q3 2015
47
Company Strategy
49
Latest Results
50
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
51
Regional Overview
52
Regional Overview - Four Key Themes For 2015: Africa Mining
52
Gold To Retreat; Except In The DRC
52
West African Iron Ore On The Rocks
53
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
54
Mining To Remain A Crucial Contributor To African GDP
55
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel - Q3 2015
56
Company Overview
58
Company Strategy
59
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis
60
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
61
Global Industry Overview
62
Global Overview
62
2
65
3
66
5
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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