Botswana Mining Report

Published 05 August 2015

  • 58 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Botswana Mining Report

BMI View: Botswana's mining sector will continue to attract global mining investment due to the country's strong regulation and attrac tive business environment. However, we note that a lack of d iversity remains the country's weak spot , with Botswana vulnerable to growing competition from other diamond-producing countries in the region.

Latest Developments

  • Ongoing electricity and water shortages will weigh on economic growth in 2015, pushing real GDP down to 4.1%, from 4.4% in 2014. It is also unlikely that the bumper upswing in diamond production witnessed in 2014 will be repeated as base effects wear off, impeding net exports ( see: 'Electricity & Water Shortages To Impede Growth' July 1). Despite this, we maintain a constructive outlook for Botswana's mining sector over our forecast period to 2019. For instance African Energy Resources is considering doubling its investment at the Sese power project. Current plans are for a 300 megawatt coal-fired plant with an estimated cost of USD750mn.

Diamonds will remain the key revenue source for Botswana's mining sector, boosted by new projects planned by Debswana, Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond Corp and with significant exploration activity also taking place across the country. In addition, we expect coal will become an increasingly prominent component of the wider mining sector and forecast production will accelerate in the years ahead. In total we forecast the country's mining industry value will see average annual growth of 4.0% to 2019, reaching a value of USD3.7bn by 2019.

Coal Production To Ramp Up
Botswana - Select Minerals Production
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

Structural Trends:

Diversity A Key Goal

Slow economic recovery in the US and Europe, two of the main export markets for Botswana's diamond production, has prevented more rapid growth in the country over the past few years. Therefore, the government is keen to reduce reliance on diamond revenue and is...

BMI Industry View
7
Latest Developments
7
Structural Trends:
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Positive Business Climate To Support Output
12
Latest Developments
12
Structural Trends
14
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects
14
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2014-2019)
16
Coal: Long-Term Growth Potential
16
Latest Developments
16
Obstacles Won't Deter Export Growth
17
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits
18
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2014-2019)
19
Industry Risk/Reward Index
20
Botswana Risk/Reward Index
20
Rewards
20
Industry Rewards
20
Country Rewards
20
Risks
20
Industry Risks
20
Country Risks
21
Africa: Headwinds To Slow Growth
21
Key Takeaways:
21
Latest Revisions:
22
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
23
Regulatory Development
24
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook
25
Commodities Forecast
27
Industrial Metals: Remaining Below-Consensus
27
Chinese Demand To Remain Weak Despite Stimulus
28
Tightening Market Balance To Support Price Recovery
29
Competitive Landscape
31
International & Domestic Key Players
31
Company Profile
33
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel - Q4 2015
33
Company Overview
34
Company Strategy
35
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis
36
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
37
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q4 2015
38
Company Strategy
40
Latest Results
41
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
42
Regional Overview
43
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
43
Key Themes
43
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright
43
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
44
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
45
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
46
Global Industry Overview
48
Global Mining: 2015 Key Themes Revisited
48
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015
48
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline
48
Theme: US Dollar Strength
49
Iron Ore Consolidation & Majors Share To Increase
50
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue
51
2015's Standouts
52
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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