BMI View: Botswana's mining industry has considerable potential, with sizeable mineral deposits complemented by a stable political climate and supportive regulatory environment.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UN Data|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||3.00||3.10||3.30||3.40||3.50||3.60|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||3.90||4.00||4.25||4.50||3.50||2.50|
Latest Updates & Forecasts
Botswana's diamond exports fell 5% to USD400mn in August 2016. Over H116, exports are 1.8% lower y-o-y.
On September 12 2016, Tango Mining's deal with Firestone Diamonds to acquire the latter's BK11 diamond mine fell through as Tango was unable to raise the required USD8mn to finance the deal.
In April 2016, UK-owned diamond exploring company Botswana Diamonds begun drilling at the PL260 and PL21 licences in the Orapa mining province. The company secured exploration rights for the area in 2015 as part of a 50:50 joint venture with Russian miner Alrosa.
In the same month, the company announced its interim results for the six-month period ending December 31 2015, reporting a net loss of USD388,000. Botswana Diamonds chairman John Teeling attributed the loss to the current depression in global diamond prices and a lack of investor interest in exploration companies.
The decision by the Botswana government to award a tender for the construction of units 7 and 8 at Morupule B to a South Korea-based consortium could negatively impact Botswana's own local coal producing companies. The government's decision could constrain investment and participation of private-sector coal companies, who will be less inclined to assist with diversifying the economy away from diamond exports.
We have raised our coal price forecasts due to a more aggressive contraction in global mine production than we anticipated, predominately in China. We now forecast Newcastle coal to average USD53.0/tonne in 2016 (previously USD51.0/tonne) and USD57.0/tonne in 2017 tonne (previously USD52.0/tonne) ( see: 'Thermal Coal: Upward Revision On Supply Curbs', June 23 2016).
In March 2016, the CEO of state-owned Botswana Oil Company, Willie Mokgatlhe, said that the company was exploring opportunities for coal beneficiation. The move would see the government start to leverage the country's considerable coal reserves by converting them into liquid energy products.
Although Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s coal production growth will remain positive, low coal prices will reduce the sector's overall investment attractiveness, limiting new projects coming online. In 2016, SSA will produce 270mn tonnes of coal, accounting for 3.7% of global coal production. We expect SSA's share to increase marginally to 3.8% by 2020 on the back of a number of new projects coming online.
The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.