BMI View: Botswana's mining industry has considerable potential, with sizeable mineral deposits complemented by a stable political climate and supportive regulatory environment. The mining industry is largely dominated by domestic players, or, in the case of Debswana, local partners of foreign agents. However overseas interest is growing, particularly in the coal mining sector, the scale of which is just starting to be realised. Price weakness will constrain the expansion of the mining sector in the short term, with diamond production set to contract in 2016, but we see significant room for growth beyond 2020.
|BMI Calculation/UN Data|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||3.00||3.10||3.30||3.40||3.50||3.60|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||3.90||4.00||4.25||4.50||3.50||2.50|
Latest Updates & Forecasts
In April 2016, Botswana Diamonds and Alrosa began drilling at the companies' PL260 and PL210 licences in the Orapa project. The companies secured exploration rights to the project in 2015 as part of a joint venture (JV).
In the same month junior Canadian miner Tango Mining announced the extension of the deadline to purchase the diamond mining operations of UK-owned Firestone Diamonds. Tango is reportedly looking to secure a USD30mn loan to finance the acquisition with a view to recommencing operations at Firestone's BK11 mine.
In March, CEO of state-run Botswana Oil Company revealed the organisation was exploring opportunities for coal benefaction, which would allow the country to covert its coal resources into liquid energy and by-products.
We expect Botswana's diamond production to contract in the short term as leading miners such as Debswana scale back capacity on account of current price weakness. Output will fall by 6.1% in 2016 to 21.8mn carats (mnct) before recovering to reach 23.1mnct in 2020.
However, coal output will expand at a rapid pace, with production set to grow by 15.2% a year on average over 2016-2020 to reach 4.4mn tonnes (mnt).
The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.