Botswana Mining Report

Published 17 February 2015

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Botswana Mining Report

BMI View: Botswana will remain one of the best regulated and strongest performing mining sectors in Africa over the coming years. The sector will largely be driven by the diamond industry, though other metals and minerals will see increasing prominence, including coal, copper, and nickel. Additionally, uranium mining is likely to take off over the next decade.

We maintain a constructive outlook for Botswana's mining sector over our forecast period to 2019. Diamonds will remain the mainstay of Botswana's mining sector, boosted by new projects planned by Debswana, Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond Corp. Yet we expect coal will become an increasingly prominent component of the wider mining sector and forecast production will accelerate in the years ahead. We therefore forecast the country's mining industry value will see average annual growth of 4.0% to 2019, reaching a value of USD3.7bn by 2019.

Coal To Play Larger Role

Botswana's mining sector has significant potential for further growth on account of large diamond, copper and coal deposits, as well as numerous successful exploration projects. In particular, we highlight strong growth potential for the country's coal sector. Fast growth from a low base will be driven by companies including Anglo American, Exxaro, African Energy & CIC Energy, bringing substantial investment into Botswana's nascent coal sector.

Botswana - Major New Mining Projects
Company Mine Production/ Reserves Year
Source: BMI, Company Announcements
CIC Energy Mmamabula Coal: 4.5mntpa 2016
African Energy Sese Coal: 1mntpa 2016
Minergy Mmamabula Coal: Inferred Resources: 2.8bnt na
Debswana Jwaneng (extension) Diamonds: Deposit of 100mnct na
Sentula Mining Asenjo Coal: Exploration & Feasibility Stage na

Country To Remain Dependent On Mining

Slow economic recovery in the US and Europe, two of the main export markets for Botswana's diamond...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Botswana - Major New Mining Projects
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Diamonds: Diamonds Are Forever
11
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects
13
Power Constraints Should Be Alleviated
13
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2010-2018)
14
Coal: Botswana Begins To Fulfil Colossal Potential
14
Improved Transport Routes To Assist Growth
16
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits
16
Coal To Have Huge Impact On Wider Economy
17
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2010-2018)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Botswana On Top
19
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
20
South Africa: Still Ranking Highly
20
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
21
Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Rewards
23
Industry Rewards
23
Country Rewards
23
Risks
24
Industry Risks
24
Country Risks
24
Table: Botswana - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
25
Regulatory Development
26
Corruption
27
Tax Regime
27
Table: Botswana - Political Overview
28
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Monthly Metals Update
31
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
31
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
33
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
34
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
35
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
36
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
37
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Thermal Coal Outlook
41
Table: BMI Thermal Coal Forecast
41
Table: Select Coal Contracts (US$/tonne)
49
Table: Global - Coal Production Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Company Profile
52
Norilsk Nickel
52
Company Overview
53
Company Strategy
54
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
55
Anglo American
56
Company Strategy
59
Latest Results
60
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
61
Regional Overview
62
Mining - Africa Overview
62
Key Opportunities
62
1
62
2
64
3
65
Key Challenges
66
1
66
2
67
3
68
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
69
Global Industry Overview
71
Challenges
71
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
75
Cause For Optimism
78
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Sources
86
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Botswana Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Botswana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Botswana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Botswana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc