Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 26 February 2015

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Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: With Botswana's plans to manufacture drugs locally stalling, the country will remain reliant on importing its pharmaceutical needs for the foreseeable future. The government's commitment to healthcare sector development will continue driving import growth to outperform exports. Botswana makes an attractive manufacturing destination, though its small market size is a deterrent to investment.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.82bn (USD203mn) in 2014 to BWP1.99bn (USD210mn) in 2015; +9.4% in local currency terms and +3.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q115.

  • Healthcare: BWP6.84bn (USD762mn) in 2014 to BWP7.37bn (USD779mn) in 2015; +7.9% in local currency terms and +2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q115.

Risk/Reward Index

Botswana's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q215 is 40.7, lower than the Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional score of 42.5 placing it 17th out of 31 countries in the region. In Africa, Botswana is ranked seventh, highlighting the country's potential as a pharmaceutical market. Although insignificant, the favourable industry and macroeconomics mean that investors are more likely to choose Botswana over other African countries.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In February 2015, the healthcare sector received the second largest share of the 2015 state budget with an allocation of BWP 5.67bn (USD586mn), equating to 15.5% of the budget. This equates to an 8.7% increase from the previous budget, and the provision of health spending is mainly to address the burden of HIV/AIDS, including the elimination of mother-to-child transmission.

  • In February 2015, the Ministry of Health announced it has put in place plans to address the shortage of doctors and nurses in the country.

  • According to the Assistant Minister of Health, Dr Alfred Madigele, the drug availability in health facilities is at 89%. He added that work is in progress aimed at strengthening the supply chain management...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Overall Market Forecast
12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2009-2017
13
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast
13
Table: Table: HIV Prevalence In Africa
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2009-2017
15
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2009-2017
15
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2009-2017
15
Economic Analysis
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
22
Rewards
23
Risks
24
Market Overview
25
Table: Overall Market Size Is Small But Individual Expenditure Is Relatively High
25
Regulatory Development
28
Intellectual Property Issues
28
Research & Development
31
Pharmacovigilance
32
Company Profile
33
Gemi Pharmacure
33
Demographic Forecast
35
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
36
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
36
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
37
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
38
Glossary
39
Methodology
41
Methodology
41
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
41
Ratings Overview
42
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
42
Weighting
43
Table: Weighting Of Components
43
Sources
43

The Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Botswana pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Botswana, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc