BMI View: Botswana's pharmaceutical market will remain of little interest to multinational drugmakers. Despite a relatively attractive business environment, multinational drugmakers will continue to use South Africa as the main channel trough which medicines are imported into the country, and will be unlikely to establish a direct manufacturing presence.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.87bn (USD185mn) in 2015 to BWP2.07bn (USD193mn) in 2016; +10.8% in local currency terms and 4.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from Q 4 1 6 .
Healthcare: BWP8.35bn (USD824mn) in 2015 to BWP9.08n (USD844mn) in 2016; +8.7% in local currency terms and 2.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.200||0.185||0.193||0.206||0.215||0.225||0.238|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.26||1.28||1.37||1.41||1.43||1.43||1.44|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.4||22.4||22.8||23.2||23.6||23.9||24.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||0.856||0.824||0.844||0.886||0.912||0.943||0.984|
In our Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Botswana maintains its score of 34.2 out of 100, yet remains below the regional average of 39.8. This relates to the country's overall small pharmaceutical market size and lengthy approval and procurement times. With political stability and good economic management, and a welcoming attitude towards foreign investors, the country presents many investment opportunities, particularly with the recent added impetus to the privatisation programme. However, subdued demand and prices for diamonds - Botswana's key commodity export -will continue to weigh on economic growth, which in turn will negatively impact on short-term pharmaceutical market growth. In Africa alone, Botswana is ranked eleventh, highlighting the country's potential as a pharmaceutical market. The government's continued commitment to improving healthcare provision is a stand out factor here.
In September 2016, the Botswanan Ministry of Health (MoH) rolled out a combination prevention strategy aimed at reducing the incidence of HIV infection in the country.
In September 2016, Botswana's MoH announced plans to launch a 'Patient Portal' in 2017 - a healthcare informatics tool.
In June 2016, ViiV Healthcare confirmed a public tender agreement with the Ministry of Health in Botswana to support the implementation of a new HIV/AIDs treatment programme, through the supply of Tivicay (dolutegravir).
BMI Political View
The ruling Botswana Democratic Party will continue to dominate policymaking in the coming quarters, aided by forthcoming changes to the composition of the legislature, and underpinning our view for policy continuity in the coming quarters. That said, these changes will not be sufficient to head off fragmentation within the ruling party during the 2018 handover of power from the current president to an interim successor. Nevertheless, Botswana remains one of the least corrupt nations in Sub-Saharan Africa following sound legal institutions and anti-corruption initiatives.
BMI Economic View
After a sharp economic downturn in recent years, growth in Botswana will see a gradual recovery from 2016 onwards, but will not return to the robust levels seen over the last decade. Various government-led projects to bolster the country's utilities and social infrastructure will support fixed investment over the next five years. Meanwhile, private consumption will be buoyed by rising household incomes and a recovery in consumer confidence. However, a sizeable net exports deficit will act as a persistent drag on overall GDP, with the outlook only slowly improving over a multiyear time horizon. As a result, we have revised our real GDP growth forecast downwards from 3.7% to 3.3% in 2016 and from 4.1% to 3.8% in 2017 respectively. Thereafter, growth will average 4.3% annually for the next three years - improved but still below the average growth seen over the previous decade of 4.7% on the back of the weakened trade dynamics.
The Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Botswana pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Botswana, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.