BMI View: Botswana's pharmaceutical market will continue to present an unattractive investment destination for multinational drugmakers. The country will remain extremely reliant on importing its pharmaceutical needs over our forecast period, as plans to expand local manufacturing capabilities continue to be postponed. Although the government's provision of free antiretroviral treatment will provide opportunities for generic drugmakers in the public healthcare sector, the country's small market size will continue to limit commercial opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.97bn (USD199mn) in 2015 to BWP2.16bn (USD210mn) in 2016; +9.7% in local currency terms and +5.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 1 1 6 .
Healthcare: BWP8.15bn (USD826mn) in 2015 to BWP8.95bn (USD873mn) in 2016; +9.8% in local currency terms and +5.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.200||0.199||0.210||0.228||0.248||0.269||0.291|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.27||1.30||1.33||1.33||1.33||1.33||1.33|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||24.2||24.1||24.1||24.1||24.1||24.1||24.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||0.826||0.826||0.873||0.948||1.029||1.117||1.211|
Botswana's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q216 is 40.2, lower than the Middle East and Africa regional score of 41.3, placing it 15th out of 31 countries. This relates to the country's low per capita spending, lengthy approval and procurement times, and overall small pharmaceutical market size. In Africa alone, Botswana is ranked sixth, highlighting the country's potential as a pharmaceutical market. This is a reflection of its favourable, relative to its regional neighbours, industry and macroeconomics. In particular, its approval process is reasonably good, with centralised purchasing and quality assurances, and the country also has respected international patent laws. The government's continued commitment to improving healthcare provision is an additional stand out factor here.
In January 2016, Botswana National AIDS Coordinating Agency (NACA) announced plans to launch a new community-driven bottom-up HIV prevention approach.
In December 2015, President Festus Mogae announced that Botswana will introduce routine HIV testing at all public health facilities in 2016.
In November 2015, the Assistant Minister of Health Dr Alfred Madigele announced there is a critical shortage of pharmaceutical staff across Botswana.
BMI Political View
President Ian Khama's authoritarian ways are causing him to lose popularity in Botswana. However this is just a slight blip in the ruling party's reign since his second term will come to an end in 2019. His authoritarianism will pose challenges such as participating in teamwork while he manages his role as chairman at the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during 2016 and deterring the ruling party's election prospects in the long-term.
BMI Economic View
A supplementary budget of BWP1.34bn will exacerbate Botswana's fiscal deficit for FY2015/16 creating a spill over effect into the FY2016/17 fiscal budget, leading to a deficit of 1.6%. Government will tap into foreign reserves and its Sovereign Wealth Fund to stabilise revenues if need be. Capital expenditure will be focused on infrastructure against power and water shortages .
The Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Botswana pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Botswana, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.