BMI View: Multinational drugmaker presence in Botswana will be limited to imports as the small market size and lack of investment incentives deter any large-scale investment plans. Although generic drugs will retain their dominance in terms of market share, as the burden of non-communicable diseases increases this will create more lucrative opportunities for foreign drugmakers. The government will remain committed to reducing the longstanding HIV/AIDS burden in the country. As such, a combination of funding from the public sector and international donors will make significant progression towards achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.96bn (USD190mn) in 2015 to BWP2.15bn (USD180mn) in 2016; +9.2% in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 1 6 .
Healthcare: BWP8.34bn (USD820mn) in 2015 to BWP9.08n (USD770mn) in 2016; +8.9% in local currency terms and -6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.200||0.190||0.180||0.190||0.190||0.200||0.210|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.26||1.35||1.37||1.38||1.37||1.37||1.36|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.4||23.6||23.6||23.7||23.9||24.0||24.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||0.860||0.820||0.770||0.780||0.810||0.830||0.870|
In our Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Botswana's score of 34.2 out of 100 marks a decrease from last quarter's score of 40.2, whilst remaining below the regional average of 40.4. This relates to the country's overall small pharmaceutical market size and lengthy approval and procurement times. Botswana will see a gradual recovery in real GDP growth over the next five years, supported by private consumption and fixed investment. However, subdued demand and prices for diamonds -Botswana's key commodity export - will continue to weigh on economic growth, which in turn will negatively impact on short-term pharmaceutical market growth. In Africa alone, Botswana is ranked tenth, highlighting the country's potential as a pharmaceutical market. The government's continued commitment to improving healthcare provision is a stand out factor here.
In June 2016, ViiV Healthcare confirmed a public tender agreement with the Ministry of Health in Botswana to support the implementation of a new HIV/AIDs treatment programme, through the supply of Tivicay (dolutegravir).
In June 2016, a progress report by the government revealed that the Botswana government has remained committed to its new community-driven roots-up HIV prevention approach.
In June 2016, Botswana's Minister of Health declared the need for much greater investment towards tackling the non-communicable disease burden in the country.
BMI Political View
Botswana remains the least corrupt nation in Sub-Saharan Africa following sound legal institutions and anti-corruption initiatives. The southern African nation held its rank as the least corrupt country in the region for the 20th consecutive year as rated by Transparency International. Botswana has sound institutions and a solid legal framework which include the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime and the Financial Intelligence Agency. The nation has additional initiatives such as a designated High Court judge to address cases of corruption, an anti-corruption unit and anti-corruption curricula in schools.
BMI Economic View
The ongoing drought and its affect on water supply and power generation will weigh on Botswana's economy in 2016. In particular, these will have an impact on the country's more positive drivers; namely the government's efforts to attract fixed investment into infrastructure, an Economic Stimulus Package in order to boost economic growth, as well as efforts to diversify the economy. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% for 2016 and 4.1% for 2017.
The Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Botswana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Botswana pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Botswana, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.