Brazil Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Brazil Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Over the long-term, Brazil will only experience modest levels of growth as structural headwinds limit any quick economic solutions to the challenges faced from falling global commodity prices. Growth will only return to the economy following two consecutive years in recession in both 2015 and 2016.

  • Widespread public unrest, sweeping corruption scandals, and deepening polarisation will keep political risk elevated over the coming quarters, weighing on investor sentiment and contributing to extreme uncertainty in terms of policy direction. Over a multiyear timeframe, the Brazilian electorate will demand progress on promised reforms, including higher-quality public services and greater government transparency.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We forecast that the real will average BRL3.580/USD in 2016, rather than our previous forecast of BRL4.000/USD. This is due a strong start to the year for the currency, as well as a significant upgrade in our current account deficit forecast. We forecast the current account shortfall will amount to 1.3% of GDP in 2016, the result of a sharp reduction in import demand and a rebound in exports.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2017)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.1 -3.8 -4.0 1.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,416.0 1,772.4 1,722.2 1,929.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.4 10.7 8.0 5.2
Exchange rate BRL/USD, eop 2.66 3.96 3.50 3.35
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.0 -10.4 -10.6 -9.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -4.3 -3.3 -1.9 -1.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Poor Investment Outlook Will Deepen Recession
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy
10
Reforms Inadequate To Reduce Fiscal Pressures
10
Structural Fiscal Position
12
Balance Of Payments
14
Declining Imports Will Facilitate External Account Rebalancing
14
Outlook On External Position
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
16
TABLE: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT INDICATORS
17
Monetary Policy
18
BCB To Proceed With Caution, But Hikes Still On The Horizon
18
Monetary Policy Framework
19
Currency Forecast
20
BRL: Poor Fundamentals Will Come Back To The Fore
20
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Brazilian Economy To 2025
25
Days Of Easy Growth Are Gone
25
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
25
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
29
SWOT Analysis
29
BMI Political Risk Index
29
Domestic Politics
30
How The Political Crisis Unfolds: Three Scenarios
30
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
30
Long-Term Political Outlook
33
Economy To Dominate Policymaking
33
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
37
SWOT Analysis
37
Operational Risk Index
37
Operational Risk
38
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
38
Economic Openness
39
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PRODUCTS & IMPORT PARTNERS, USDMN
39
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
40
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
41
Availability Of Labour
44
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
45
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
46
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
51
Global Macro Outlook
51
Emerging Markets Nearing Inflexion Point
51
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
51
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
52
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
52
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
53
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
55

Assess your risk exposure in Brazil with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Brazil with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report