BMI View: Despite a subdued outlook for Brazil's economy, we expect steady increases in mining and agricultural output will ensure tepid growth in freight volumes in the coming years. We caution that a more robust expansion will be prevented by a slowdown in the consumer sector, weak global commodities and a lacklustre external picture. As a result, we expect the road and rail sector will display the largest gains vis-a-vis airfreight.
The Brazilian economy will enter recession in 2015, for the first time in six years. We are currently forecasting real GDP to contract by 1.7% this year, before returning to growth of 0.6% in 2016. These forecasts are below Bloomberg consensus estimates for a 1.0% contraction in 2015 and growth of 1.2% in 2016. Major headwinds to private consumption and a slow resolution of the corruption scandal at national oil company Petrobras will be the primary driver of the slowdown, with unemployment reaching ten year highs and the country's investment attractiveness significantly deteriorated.
Nevertheless, outlook for trade is supportive for the freight sector, as despite lower prices, demand levels for grains and mining output remain elevated. This will ensure positive growth in each of the freight modes. Mining production will increase by 1.0% this year, according to our mining team. Looking forward, production will expand at a more rapid pace from 2016 onward, growing at an annual average of 3.75% between 2016 and 2019.
Road freight will be the dominant freight sector in 2015, accounting for 78% of the total mix, marking a continuation of dynamics over the past five years. Given the size and terrain of the country and limited development in the air and rail networks, the road network has presented the main transport option. Road dominance will in the coming years despite subdued economic growth, as even though a drop off in private consumption will reduce demand for freighted consumer goods, the lack of alternative options will see...
The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Brazil Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.