Brazil Infrastructure Report

Published 29 June 2015

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Brazil Infrastructure Report

BMI View: Government budget cuts and the ongoing implications of Operation Lava Jato have seen downgrade growth for Brazil's construction sector, and we now anticipate a recession in 2015 and 2016. The new BRL169bn logistics investment programme (PIL) will provide limited respite to the recession, as we expect take-up to be limited in the current climate. Over the longer term the scandal could force a much-needed restructuring of the Brazilian construction sector.

In June 2015, the Brazilian government announced the new PIL, which is effectively a continuation of the transport concessions programme - including some projects carried over. Despite the size of the scheme, with BRL69.2bn in concessions expected to take place between 2015 and 2018, we see limited prospects for the plan to reverse the recession over 2015-2016. In particular, we believe in the current environment there will be limited international interest unless projects are made more attractive, whilst domestic companies will struggle to bid due to capital constraints as a result of Operation Lava Jato.

Operation Lava Jato (car wash) - a widespread government investigation into contracting practices at Brazil's national oil company Petrobras - has implicated the construction sector. The investigation started in March 2014 and has initially identified 23 industry groups (including a number of contractors across the energy and construction space) which have been banned from participating in Petrobras contracts pending further investigation.

Key implications of this scandal:

  • We expect company cashflow to be hit hard, with the ability to raise financing constrained by the investigation and payment of work done for Petrobras halted. As such, we see the potential for work stoppage at construction sites, loan defaults and bankruptcies. Several companies have already declared bankruptcy and we expect more could follow.

  • We see the scandal delaying infrastructure projects, in addition to threatening the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
12
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
12
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
12
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Brazil 2019-2024)
13
Table: Brazil Transport Concessions
20
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
22
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
22
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Brazil 2019-2024)
23
Table: 2015 Transport Concessions Plan - Allocations
25
Table: Concessions Financing Structure
25
Table: Brazil: Key Transport Projects
28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
40
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
40
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Brazil 2019-2024)
41
Table: Brazil Power Auctions, 2013/2014
42
Table: Brazil: Energy And Utilities Projects
51
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
61
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
61
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Brazil 2019-2024)
61
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure
65
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
67
Brazil - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
67
Risk/Reward Index
67
Rewards
67
Risks
68
Policy Uncertainty To Weigh On Latin America
70
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
75
Company Profile
76
Grupo Camargo Correa
76
Odebrecht
80
Global Industry Overview
85
Project Risk Index: Robust Financing Establishes Outperformer Status
85
Table: Project Risk Index - Top 10 Markets
85
Table: Project Risk Index - Financing Risk, SSA Top 5
86
Table: Project Risk Index - Construction Risk, Asia-Pacific Top 5
87
Table: Project Risk Index - Operation Risk, Developed Markets Top 5
88
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Brazil Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Brazil Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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