Brazil Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Brazil Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Brazil's iron ore sector will drive the country ' s mining industry growth, supported by low operating costs and vast reserves. Meanwhile, consistently weak mineral prices will weigh on production growth in other sectors.

Brazil Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, IBGE
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 58.55 43.70 37.27 36.77 39.63 42.19 44.88
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -24.77 -25.37 -14.72 -1.34 7.78 6.47 6.37

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, and a strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global iron ore production to increase from 11.5% in 2016 to 14.5% by 2020, with the sector's output reaching 459mnt in 2020 from 359mnt in 2016.

  • While Brazil's iron ore production growth will not be significantly affected by the Samarco dam burst in November 2015, the country's mining sector will come under tightening environmental regulation. Increased political will to pass the overhaul of Brazil's mining regulatory framework, which has been stalled in Congress since 2013, will include legislation targeting the regulation of mine tailings dams.

  • We have downgraded our bauxite production growth forecast from 3.0% to 1.0% in 2016, due to the country's declining aluminium output and weak price environment. Beyond 2016, we expect growth to accelerate as Norsk Hydro's Paragominas mine continues to ramp up production.

  • Major mining and metals producers operating in Brazil will face headwinds from a deepening economic recession, structurally lower commodity prices, high debt loads and corruption scandals. Firms will target lowering spending, closing or divesting from high-cost assets and reducing employment. For instance, on February 16, Anglo American announced the details of its large-scale restructuring plan, including the eventual sale of the USD9.0bn Minas Rio iron ore mine in Brazil.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Brazil Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Bauxite: Aluminium Decline To Weigh On Growth
10
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
10
Risks To Outlook
12
Gold: Tepid Growth In Light Of Price Weakness
13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects
15
Iron Ore: Low-Cost Producers To Drive Growth
16
Table: Iron Ore Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Brazil - Major Iron Ore Projects
19
Nickel: Price Weakness To Weigh On Growth
20
Table: Nickel Production (Brazil 2014-2020)
20
Tin: Growth To Underperform
22
Table: Tin Production (Brazil 2014-2020)
23
Indonesian Ban To Boost Brazilian Exports
25
Mining Risk/Reward Index
27
Brazil Risk/Reward Index
27
Rewards
27
Industry Rewards
27
Country Rewards
27
Risks
27
Industry Risks
27
Country Risks
28
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge
28
Key Takeaways
28
Latest Revisions
30
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
31
Regulatory Development
32
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
32
Commodities Forecast
36
Commodities Outlook
36
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
36
Competitive Landscape
37
Table: Brazil - Largest Mining Companies Financial Data
38
Company Profile
39
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q2 2016
39
Company Strategy
42
Latest Results
44
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
46
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q2 2016
47
Company Overview
49
Company Strategy
49
Latest Results
51
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
52
Company Details
53
Vale - Q2 2016
54
Company Overview
56
Company Strategy
56
Latest Results
58
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
59
Company Details
59
Regional Overview
60
Methodology
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Brazil Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.