Brazil Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Brazil Oil & Gas Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Brazil Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise throughout our forecast period. However, production growth will be limited by lower oil prices and decreased capex funds. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatory environment.

Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,114.1 2,347.0 2,438.1 2,509.4 2,570.7 2,621.2 2,647.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,656.2 2,735.8 2,763.2 2,790.8 2,818.7 2,818.7 2,818.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,414.5 3,469.6 3,465.2 3,511.9 3,567.1 3,627.4 3,691.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.3 23.4 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.3 29.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 38.4 41.5 43.5 46.1 48.0 49.7 53.1
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

  • Brazil's 13th licensing round on October 7 was an outright disappointment, with only 37 of 266 blocks awarded. This was the worst turnout of any round over the past decade as existing international market participants including Shell, Total, and Statoil refrained from participating, supporting our more modest reserve growth outlook.

  • On October 5, Petrobras announced a USD11bn reduction to its Business and Management Plan (BMP) impacting spending over 2015 and 2016. In the wake of continued above-ground challenges, we expect the national oil company (NOC) will be forced to reassess its unchanged production targets over the next several quarters.

  • The 'Lava Jato' corruption scandal continues to place additional pressure on state-owned Petrobras to shore up its finances and outperform. However, the two-week strike by the country's oil workers union which began in November 1 has threatened the company's long-term strategy as workers remain defiant against widespread asset divestments and reorganisation.

  • Petrobras' fuel price increase in September 2015 will weigh on domestic demand for gasoline and diesel in 2016. However, we maintain that consumption of refined fuels will continue to outpace production for the duration of our forecast period. This dynamic will be exacerbated by further delays and recent cancellations of planned downstream projects.

  • The expected rise in natural gas consumption will be supported by the start up of the Route 2 offshore pipeline in Q116. This will increase takeaway capacity from the Lula Nordeste play in the Santos Basin by 16mn cubic metres per day (mcm/d) to the Tecab processing plant in Mecae, supporting efforts to increase thermal generation utilisation over the next several years.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
14
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
31
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
32
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
36
Refining
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
42
Refined Fuels Consumption
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2013-2018)
46
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2019-2024)
46
Gas Consumption
47
Latest Updates
47
Structural Trends
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2013-2018)
50
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2019-2024)
50
Trade - Oil
51
Latest Updates
51
Structural Trends
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2019)
52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
53
Latest Updates
53
Structural Trends
53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
56
Latest Updates
56
Structural Trends
56
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
59
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
60
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
60
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
60
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
62
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
63
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
65
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
67
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index
68
Market Overview
71
Brazil Energy Market Overview
71
Overview/State Role
71
Licensing And Regulation
71
Licensing Rounds
73
International Energy Relations
76
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
78
Oil Refineries
78
Table: Refineries In Brazil
78
Service Stations
83
Oil Terminals/Ports
83
Oil Pipelines
83
LNG Terminals
83
Gas Pipelines
84
Competitive Landscape
87
Summary
87
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
89
Company Profile
90
Petr-leo Brasileiro
90
Shell Brasil
103
Repsol
111
Esso Brasileira de Petr-leo
115
Chevron Brasil
117
Ultrapar Participa-es (Grupo Ultra)
120
BG do Brasil
124
BP Brasil
128
Statoil do Brasil
133
Oleo & Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil
138
Other Summaries
141
Regional Overview
151
Latin America Overview
151
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
161
Glossary
162
Table: Glossary Of Terms
162
Methodology
164
Industry Forecast Methodology
164
Source
166
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
166
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
168
Table: Weighting
169

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Brazil including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.