Brazil Oil & Gas Report

Published 25 August 2015

  • 188 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Brazil Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise throughout our forecast period. However, production growth will be limited by lower oil prices and decreased capex funds. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatory environment.

Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,114.1 2,346.3 2,437.4 2,508.7 2,570.0 2,620.4 2,646.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,656.5 2,736.2 2,763.5 2,791.2 2,819.1 2,819.1 2,819.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,383.8 3,438.6 3,425.9 3,471.6 3,525.8 3,585.4 3,649.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.3 23.4 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.3 29.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 37.6 41.4 43.6 46.3 48.1 49.8 53.3

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

  • Significant financial burdens faced by state-owned Petrobras, the dominant player in the sector, will keep the country from achieving its full production potential as the company struggles to finance the development of pre-salt resources amid a weakening real, a rising 'Custo Brazil', and lower oil prices.

  • The 'Lava Jato' corruption scandal will place additional pressure on the NOC to shore up its finances and outperform. Given the size and scope of this scandal, the company could find itself the victim of prolonged investor uncertainty, as seen by its depressed share price despite nearly...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil and Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2019-2024)
11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
15
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
25
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
25
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
25
Table: List Of Upcoming And Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
30
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
30
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2013-2018)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2019-2024)
40
Gas Consumption
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2013-2018)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Oil
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2013-2018)
49
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2019-2024)
50
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
55
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
55
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
56
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
58
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
58
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
61
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
63
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index
64
Market Overview
67
Brazil Energy Market Overview
67
Overview/State Role
67
Licensing Rounds
69
International Energy Relations
72
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
74
Oil Refineries
74
Table: Refineries In Brazil
74
Service Stations
79
Oil Terminals/Ports
79
Oil Pipelines
79
LNG Terminals
79
Gas Pipelines
79
Competitive Landscape
82
Summary
82
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
84
Company Profile
85
Petr-leo Brasileiro
85
Shell Brasil
98
Repsol
104
Esso Brasileira de Petr-leo
109
Chevron Brasil
110
Ultrapar Participa-es (Grupo Ultra)
113
BG do Brasil
117
BP Brasil
121
Statoil do Brasil
126
Oleo & Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil
131
Other Summaries
134
Regional Overview
142
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
142
Global Industry Overview
151
Oil Price Outlook
151
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
151
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
152
Appendix
159
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
159
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
159
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
160
Latin America - Regional Appendix
161
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
162
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
162
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
163
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
164
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
164
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
165
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
166
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
166
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
167
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
167
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
168
Brazil - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
169
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
169
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
170
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
171
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
172
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
173
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
174
Brazil - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
175
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
175
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
175
Glossary
177
Table: Glossary Of Terms
177
Methodology
179
Industry Forecast Methodology
179
Source
181
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
181
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
183
Table: Weighting
184

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Brazil including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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