Brazil Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Brazil Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over the next decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continued headwinds from the corruption scandal and ongoing political crisis . As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatory environment.

Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: ANP, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,346.3 2,527.0 2,625.4 2,689.6 2,742.5 2,769.9 2,811.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,242.8 2,265.3 2,276.6 2,285.7 2,331.4 2,366.4 2,390.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,689.3 2,670.0 2,619.8 2,658.5 2,700.8 2,748.3 2,799.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 22.7 23.9 25.7 26.9 27.9 28.6 29.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 45.7 47.5 48.7 49.7 50.9 54.5 56.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

  • On May 12, Brazil's Senate joined the lower house, voting to open an impeachment trial for President Dilma Rousseff for alleged misuse of public funds. Brazil is set for a shift to more centrist policies with the ascendance of former vice president Michel Temer to the presidency. We expect that the Senate will ultimately vote to impeach Rousseff in the months ahead, ending 13 years of leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) rule, and paving the way for Temer to remain in power until new elections are held in 2018.

  • While early policy statements from Temer and his aides indicate upside for Brazilian growth over the next few years, staunch legislative opposition from Rousseff's PT, an ongoing impeachment trial and potential for substantial public pushback against cutting spending in the midst of a deep economic recession will likely stymie the pace of reform, including within the oil and gas sector.

  • Reports are surfacing that Brazilian officials plan to alter existing presalt regulations in the coming weeks to encourage greater private investment in the oil sector. The new proposals would allow privately owned companies to operate production-sharing contracts (PSCs) in deepwater acreage, altering a key element of the Presalt Law passed in 2010. Producers other than national oil company (NOC) Petrobras will only be able to operate in the presalt if blocks are sold to combine operations with existing concessions that were signed prior to the passage of the 2010 law.

  • Potential changes to Brazil's presalt regulations will provide little upside for investment over the next year. An unfavourable operating environment and Petrobras' reduced capex plans will deter greater private sector involvement, supporting our more modest production forecast.

  • On May 12, Brazilian national oil company (NOC) Petrobras released its Q116 financial results, revealing continued operational challenges that lie ahead. The company reported weaker financial metrics on a y-o-y basis, with quarterly net income falling from USD1.9bn in 2015 to a loss of USD300mn this year. Whilst losses narrowed since Q415 - when net income fell by USD9.4bn - further declines point to continued unprofitability in the upstream sector despite efforts to reduce costs.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
14
Table: Breakdown Of Offshore Reserves
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
33
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
33
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
37
Refining
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes
41
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
41
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
41
Refined Fuels Consumption
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
45
Gas Consumption
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
49
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
49
Trade - Oil
50
Crude Trade Forecasts
50
Latest Updates
50
Structural Trends
50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
53
Refined Fuels Forecasts
53
Latest Updates
53
Structural Trends
53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
55
Latest Updates
55
Structural Trends
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
58
Industry Risk Reward Index
59
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
59
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
59
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
60
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
61
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
62
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
64
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
66
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index
67
Market Overview
70
Brazil Energy Market Overview
70
Overview/State Role
70
Licensing And Regulation
71
Licensing Rounds
72
International Energy Relations
75
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
78
Oil Refineries
78
Table: Refineries In Brazil
78
Service Stations
83
Oil Terminals/Ports
83
Oil Pipelines
83
LNG Terminals
83
Gas Pipelines
84
Competitive Landscape
87
Summary
87
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
89
Company Profile
90
BP Brasil
90
Chevron Brasil
94
Esso Brasileira de Petr-leo
97
Grupo Ultra
99
OGpar
103
Petrobras
107
Repsol
119
Shell Brasil
123
Statoil do Brasil
129
Other Summaries
134
Regional Overview
144
Latin America Overview
144
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
153
Glossary
155
Table: Glossary Of Terms
155
Methodology
157
Industry Forecast Methodology
157
Source
159
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
159
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
161
Table: Weighting
162

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Brazil including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.