Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Brazil Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Cheaper oil has lowered the cost of naphtha, Braskem's main raw material, thereby improving competitiveness. However, t he Brazilian petrochemicals industry still endured one of the worst years in two decades in 2015 due to the domestic economic recession. Recessionary trends are expected to continue in 2016, severely affecting petrochemicals end markets. Margins will be determined by success in reducing electricity costs and the price of oil, which has a direct bearing on the cost of naphtha. The naphtha-ethane price differential will have a major impact on Brazil's ability to compete with new ethane-based production in the US .

Chemicals accounted for 24% of imports and 7% of exports in the January-April 2016 period. The chemicals trade deficit reached USD6.4bn in the first four months of 2016, down 18.4% y-o-y. Imports fell 14.6% y-o-y to USD10.2bn while exports fell 7.5% to USD3.8bn. In the 12 months to April 2016 at USD24bn, the lowest level since 2010 when it fell to USD20.6bn. Thermoplastic resins exports rose 39.2% y-o-y to USD766.8mn in the first four months of the year, while fertilisers dropped 3.2% y-o-y to USD1.5bn.

  • In terms of end markets, the domestic market will contract. We remain bearish on the country's vehicle production outlook in 2016 as domestic sales prospects remain weak and worker dissatisfaction over working hours, pay and lay-offs leads to further industrial disputes and production cutbacks. As a major petrochemicals consumer, through the use of polymers and rubber in fittings and trimmings, the industry's decline is a major loss for the petrochemicals market. Brazil's construction sector will remain in recession in 2016, which will negatively affect construction-related polymers, particularly polyvinyl chloride.

  • Petrobras indicated that it requires an additional USD5.3bn to complete the troubled Comperj project, including USD2.8bn for the refinery and USD2.5bn for the natural gas processing unit. Originally budgeted at USD6.1bn, the complex is now expected to cost USD19.6bn. In March 2016, it was said the project would be completed in 2023, 15 years after construction began.

  • Brazil remains in third place in our Americas Risk/Reward Index ranking, but its score has fallen 0.8 points this quarter due to the deteriorating market position, putting it at level with Mexico.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production
14
Consumption
15
Trade
17
Table: Brazil Petrochemicals Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2020
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Economic Analysis
20
Table: 10-Year GDP Forecasts
26
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts
26
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts
27
Table: Gross Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts
27
Table: Net Export Forecasts
28
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Ratings
32
Market Overview
33
Industry Trends And Developments
35
2015 in Review
35
Plants and Projects
36
Doubts Over Comperj's viability
37
Legacy of the Petrobras Corruption Scandal
38
Foreign Ventures
40
Financial and Operational Performance
41
Bioplastics
41
Company Profile
43
Braskem
43
Table: Braskem Financial Results - BRLmn
48
Petr-leo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
49
Regional Overview
55
Americas Overview
55
Table: Planned Cracker Projects
60
Global Industry Overview
61
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices
71
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2014-2019)
71
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2020-2025)
72
Demographic Forecast
74
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025)
75
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025)
75
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025)
76
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025)
76
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025)
77
Glossary
79
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
79
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
82
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
83
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
84

The Brazil Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.