Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Published 19 March 2015

  • 75 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: The indefinite postponement of Braskem 's planned petrochemicals facilities at the Comperj complex has dealt a major blow to Brazil's hopes of becoming self-sufficient in polymers and aromatics, according to our latest Brazil Petrochemicals Report.

Braskem's decision to postpone its portion of the Comperj project, including a worldscale cracker as well as derivative units, and to increase the capacity of its gas cracker at Duque de Caxias in Rio de Janeiro state demonstrates the delicate situation of Brazil's petrochemicals industry, which is facing declining output amid an influx of cheaper imports and sluggish domestic demand. High costs of production and the higher cost of feedstock compared to the US, which is seeing a surge of capacity due to shale gas exploitation, are behind the decision to shelve the greenfield project. Problems facing Petrobras, which is mired in controversy over corruption, may also have informed Braskem's decision.

In 2014, chemicals output plunged 4.6% in spite of a modest 0.5% rise in national consumption. Imports rose 9.3%, muscling out Brazilian producers from their home market. In spite of this, Braskem improved its profitability, in large part due to its foreign operations. BMI expects Braskem to continue investing elsewhere in Latin America, indicating that even the national major is deserting the Brazilian market for more competitive markets with higher growth opportunities.

Key Developments

  • While the expected depreciation of the real could bring some relief to domestic producers, in the past it has failed to bring any relief in terms of supporting sales in the domestic market.

  • Recovery of the automotive and construction sectors, which together make up the majority of petrochemicals consumption in Brazil, are set for a lacklustre performance in 2015. This will weigh down potential growth in a broad range of petrochemicals productions, from polymers to synthetic rubbers.

  • Brazil sits in third position in ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Brazil Petrochemicals Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Brazil 2011-2018)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Brazil Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Foreign Ventures
32
Financial Results
33
Bioplastics
34
Company Profile
35
Braskem
35
Table: Braskem Financial Results - BRLmn
38
Petr-leo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
39
Regional Overview
43
Americas Overview
43
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
46
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Polymers Markets
52
Polymers Capacities
53
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
54
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
54
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
55
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
56
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
56
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
59
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
59
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
59
Upward Price Revision
61
Europe And The US:
61
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
63
Risks To Outlook
64
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
65
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
65
Supply Keeps Market Down
65
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
67
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
68
Risks To Outlook
71
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
72
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
72
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
77
Risks To Outlook
78
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
79
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
79
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
81
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
85
Risks To Outlook
86
Demographic Forecast
88
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
89
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
90
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
91
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
91
Glossary
92
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
95
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
96
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
97

The Brazil Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc