Brazil Petrochemicals Report

Published 17 June 2015

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Brazil Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: Owing to a poor market outlook and the orientation of Brazil's manufacturing industry towards the domestic market, rather than export markets, we are becoming more bearish on the country's petrochemicals production. A likely economic recession in 2015 will be accompanied by additional factors affecting the industry, including the Petrobras corruption scandal which will exacerbate poor industry performance.

In Q115, chemicals consumption declined slightly, although Brazilian producers still managed to increase sales in the domestic market at the expense of imports. This reversed a trend in which local producers were losing market share and was largely related to the weakening of the Brazilian real. However, producers remain circumspect about the prospects for the sector in coming months due to the poor end-market environment.

Poor economic fundamentals, high production costs, construction delays and electricity shortages were behind Braskem's decision to withdraw from the Comperj project. This has been dealt a further blow by a corruption scandal that also touches on Braskem. As a result, growth in capacity is unlikely to be substantial.

Key Trends and Developments

  • Recovery of the Brazilian petrochemicals market is unlikely in 2015. This will weigh down potential growth in a broad range of petrochemicals productions, from polymers to synthetic rubbers.

  • BMI forecasts an 11.9% decrease in total vehicle output in 2015, a continuation of the large falls in output seen in 2014. This will be a major blow to polymer and rubber businesses.

  • The outlook for the construction sector is slightly more positive in 2015 with growth of 1.8%, up from a contraction of 3.6% in 2014. The 2016 Olympic Games should also lift polymer consumption in the sector.

  • The Petrobras corruption scandal along with ongoing poor economic performance have further undermined Brazil's Risk Reward Index for the petrochemicals industry this quarter, falling 0.5 points to 66.0...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Brazil Petrochemicals Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Brazil 2012-2019)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
25
Divergence: the North-South divide
25
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Financial Results
35
Bioplastics
35
Company Profile
36
Braskem
36
Table: Braskem Financial Results - BRLmn
40
Petr-leo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
41
Regional Overview
45
Americas Overview
45
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
49
Global Industry Overview
51
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
51
Medium-term outlook
52
China versus the US: feedstock wars
54
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
59
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
62
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
62
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
63
Demographic Forecast
65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025)
66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025)
66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025)
68
Glossary
70
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Brazil Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Brazil Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc