Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Brazil will continue to be the most important market for multinational pharmaceutical companies in Latin America, d espit e growing financial tensions, increasing pricing pressure and generic competition. Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: BRL65.8bn (USD19.8bn) in 2015 to BRL69.8bn (USD18.4bn) in 2016; +6.1% in local currency terms and -7.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in has stayed the same as in Q 116 .

Healthcare: BRL509.9bn (USD216.7bn) in 2015 to BRL601.1bn (USD158.2bn) in 2016; +8.3% in local currency terms and -5.0% in US dollar terms . Forecast in local currency has been revised downward from Q 116 .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: The Brazilian Pharmaceutical Industry Federation (Febrafarma), Group of Executives of the Pharmaceutical Market (Grupemef), Interfarma, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 26.346 19.749 18.375 21.808 23.861 26.546 29.109
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.12 1.12 1.16 1.14 1.13 1.10 1.08
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8
Health spending, USDbn 216.606 166.598 158.192 191.293 213.207 241.430 270.319

Risk/Reward Index

Brazil scores 61.9 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index (RRI), making it the fourth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Americas this quarter. We highlight that Brazil will continue to be the most important market for multinationals in Latin America. Its position has been very well reflected in this quarter's RRI scores, primarily a result of the country's consistent economic growth and the government's commitment to promoting local industry.

Latest Updates

  • In January, ANVISA, granted approval to Sanofi Pasteur ( Sanofi)'s Dengvaxiab .

  • In December, the Brazilian government's debt to pharmaceutical companies has reached BRL927mn (USD229mn).

  • In November, the Legislative Assembly of Sao Paulo approved a bill sent by Governor Geraldo Alckmin to increase the ICMS tax rate and reduce generic drug prices.

  • In November, Ache opened the laboratory of Molecular Design and Synthesis at its headquarters in Guarulhos.

  • In November, Brasil Pharma confirmed that it has divested one of its Mais Economica drugstores to Mobius Health, an affiliate of Verti Capital, for BRL44mn (USD11.54mn).

  • In November, ANVISA) approved Fiprima (filgrastim), the first biosimilar drug to be fully manufactured in the country.

BMI Economic View

Brazil's recession will deepen in 2016 as the labour market experiences significant deterioration as corporate bankruptcies rise. Household spending will fall significantly as the unemployment rate increases, boosting the country's default rate and sending real wages lower. BMI Political View

A recent cabinet shake-up by Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff will fail to restore her political capital, ensuring the country's poor policymaking environment persists. This will be compounded by a recent court ruling against Rousseff's government, which will further undermine the ruling coalition's cohesion.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Brazil 2013-2019)
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Brazil 2012-2019)
40
Industry Risk Reward Indices
41
Americas Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
41
Brazil Risk/Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare Sector
52
Table: Healthcare Resources (Brazil 2009-2014)
53
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Brazil 2009-2014)
53
Table: Healthcare Activity (Brazil 2009-2014)
54
Research & Development
54
Biotechnology
56
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
59
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies In Brazil By Sales In 2013
66
Generic Drugmakers
69
Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector
71
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
73
Company Profile
75
Ach-/Biosint-tica
75
EMS Sigma
79
Eurofarma
82
Medley
85
Crist-lia
88
Sanofi
91
Pfizer
94
Merck & Co
97
Novartis
100
GlaxoSmithKline
103
Table: GlaxoSMITHKLINE'S Strong Collaborative Efforts In Public-Private Partnerships (Ppps) In Brazil
105
Roche
107
Demographic Forecast
110
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025)
111
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025)
111
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025)
113
Glossary
115
Methodology
117
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
117
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
117
Notes On Methodology
118
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
119
Index Overview
120
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
120
Indicator Weightings
121

The Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Brazil, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.