BMI View: The current state of political uncertainty will not shake Brazil's leading position as Latin America's largest pharmaceutical and healthcare market. The Brazilian government has been committed to improving the population's access to healthcare for decades. Having said this , Brazil's private healthcare market will experience contraction in real terms in 2016 due to the deteriorating political and economic outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BRL66.8bn (USD20.0bn) in 2015 to BRL71.7bn (USD17.9bn) in 2016; +7.4% in local currency terms and -10.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in local currency terms has been revised downward from Q 216.
Healthcare: BRL568.3bn (USD170.6bn) in 2015 to BRL619.8bn (USD155.0bn) in 2016; +9.1% in local currency terms and -9.2% in US dollar terms . Forecast in local currency terms has been revised downward from Q 216 .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: The Brazilian Pharmaceutical Industry Federation (Febrafarma), Group of Executives of the Pharmaceutical Market (Grupemef), Interfarma, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||26.346||20.048||17.933||18.775||21.681||24.543||22.943|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.09||1.13||1.15||1.15||1.15||1.13||1.11|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||11.9||11.8||11.6||11.5||11.4||11.3||11.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||220.551||170.588||154.961||163.489||190.620||218.078||205.765|
Brazil scores 62.6 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index (RRI), making it the fourth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Americas this quarter. We highlight that Brazil will continue to be the most important market for multinationals in Latin America. Its position has been very well reflected in this quarter's RRI scores, primarily a result of the country's consistent economic growth and the government's commitment to promoting local industry.
In March 2016, Brazil's Chamber of Deputies voted in favour of increasing federal healthcare expenditure by BRL140bn (USD38bn) by 2023. The proposal suggested to increase the minimum mandatory healthcare spending from 13% of current net revenue to 19.4% by 2023 (14.8% in 2017, 15.5% in 2018, 16.2% in 2019, 16.9% in 2020, 17.6% in 2021, 18.3% in 2022 and 19.4% in 2023).
In March 2016, the federal government promised to invest BRL649.1mn (USD176mn) over the next four years in research on the Zika virus and microcephaly. The investment will fund the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, innovation in health service management and strategies to combat Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits Zika, as well as dengue and chikungunya.
On March 31 2016, Brazil's Ministry of Health delayed the publication of the guide adjustment for medicine prices.
In February 2016, the board of Brazil's National Economic Development Bank (BNDES - Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico) approved BRL401mn (USD103mn) in funding for the construction of two biopharmaceutical production sites.
In February, the Brazilian government extended the validity of prescriptions for treating hypertension, diabetes and asthma in the People's Pharmacy program.
In February, 12 states in Brazil decided to raise the rate of Tax on Goods and Services (ICMS) on medicines.
In January, the Brazilian drugmaker, Hypermarcas, agreed to the sale of its contraception division to Britain's Reckitt Benckiser for BRL675mn (USD169mn).
BMI Economic View
Brazil's recession will deepen in 2016 as the labour market experiences significant deterioration as corporate bankruptcies rise. Household spending will fall significantly as the unemployment rate increases, boosting the country's default rate and sending real wages lower.
BMI Political View
President Dilma Rousseff will stave off impeachment by accommodating policies endorsed by the more left-leaning members of her party. However, this will preclude many fiscal austerity measures proposed by the government in its attempt to limit economic stagnation.
The Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Brazil, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.