BMI View: The Brazilian pharmaceutical market will stimulate greater interest from foreign multinationals in the coming years. The weakening of the Brazilian real, government efforts to promote the local pharmaceutical industry and greater international collaboration are attracting drugmakers to Latin America's largest medicines market; particularly those from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While cooperation between Brazil and the Middle East remains in its infancy, we support a positive outlook for the future of pharmaceutical relations between the two countries.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BRL66.79bn (USD20.05bn) in 2015 to BRL71.73bn (USD20.61bn) in 2016; +7.4% in local currency terms and 2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in local currency terms is unchanged from last quarter .
Healthcare: BRL497.61bn (USD149.38bn) in 2015 to BRL538.07bn (USD154.62bn) in 2016; +8.1% in local currency terms and +3.5% in US dollar terms . Forecast in local currency terms revised downward from last quarter due to new historical data.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: The Brazilian Pharmaceutical Industry Federation (Febrafarma), Group of Executives of the Pharmaceutical Market (Grupemef), Interfarma, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||26.346||20.048||20.612||22.978||24.195||25.034||25.889|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.09||1.13||1.15||1.15||1.14||1.12||1.11|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||13.5||13.4||13.3||13.3||13.2||13.2||13.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||195.210||149.376||154.616||173.198||183.259||190.307||197.551|
Brazil scores 60.2 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q117, improving slightly on last quarter's score (59.0). The country is ranked as the sixth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Americas this quarter. Brazil's pharmaceutical market is boosted by its large market size (Market Expenditure score of 16.0 out of 20), the largest in South America. However, low per capita spending on medicines (score of 3.6 out of 12) and a relatively small pensionable population (score of 4.0 out of 8) limit the attractiveness of the market. Nevertheless, we highlight that Brazil will continue to be an important market for multinationals in Latin America.
In September 2016, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) announced that it would begin to offer dolutegravir, an antiretroviral drug treatment for HIV, to around 100,000 patients starting in 2017.
Also in September 2016, Brazilian healthcare provider NotreDame Intermedica Saude SA, reached an agreement to buy the operations of rival Unimed ABC, including a hospital, seven healthcare centres and health insurance contracts with more than 70,000 clients.
In August 2016, Sanofi sent 500,000 doses of its dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, to Parana Brazil, supporting a large-scale public dengue immunisation program of the state's 30 most highly endemic municipalities.
As of August 11 2016, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) reported that there have been 252,864 cases of dengue in Brazil, accounting for 79% of all dengue cases in the Americas.
According to PAHO data, there have been 66,180 confirmed cases of the Zika virus in Brazil during the 2015-2016 outbreak as of July 28 2016.
BMI Economic View
The Brazilian economy will begin to gradually recover over the coming quarters as sentiment improves and investment returns to positive growth. However, the recovery will be weak and gradual given a large output gap and high levels of debt in the economy.
BMI Political View
Brazil's municipal election signals voters' preference for a change in policy direction that offers modest tailwinds to President Michel Temer's reform efforts. However, the public's elevation of smaller political parties is likely to lead to an increasingly fragmented political environment heading into the 2018 general election.
The Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Brazil Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Brazil, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.