Brazil Power Report

Published 16 February 2015

  • 76 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Brazil Power Report

BMI View: Brazil's power sector continues to offer significant investment opp ortunities due to its vast size coupled with the government's commitment to expanding power capacity and the large prospective in the renewables and natural gas-fired thermal segments. However, the country's potential is hindered by its continued dependence on unreliable hydropower, weak infrastructure and regulatory interjections. In addition, Brazil's darkening macroeconomic trajectory has weighed heavily on our forecast for power consumption, while a protracted condition of severe droughts prompted us to downwardly revise our projections for hydropower generation.

Brazil's power sector will continue to grow in the coming years - driven by government commitment to power supply expansion, power mix diversification needs through additional thermal generation and vast untapped potential for renewables. This quarter we have revised down our forecasts for hydropower capacity and generation, due to the risk of delays in new plants' development and reduced power supply from the existing ones because of continuing droughts. Conversely, we have revised up our forecasts for coal and natural gas-fired power generation and capacity as a result of the need to make up for the reduced hydropower supply and new projects contracted.

We expect total power generation in the country to grow by an average annual rate of 2.7% over our 10-year forecast period, rising from 554.1TWh in 2015 to 705.3TWh in 2024. Power generating capacity will also grow steadily, expanding by 3.08% annually on average over the same period, primarily as a result of a strong pipeline of hydropower and wind projects.

The government's power auctions in 2014 have secured contracts for vast additions of new capacity and transmission infrastructure for the coming years and we expect investor interest to remain strong in 2015. Nevertheless, Brazil remains an underperformer relative to other Latin American big economies in terms of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Brazil Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2017)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2018-2023)
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
35
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
43
Brazil Power Projects Database
44
Table: Brazil Major Projects - Power
44
Competitive Landscape
53
Operador Nacional do Sistema El-trico (ONS)
53
Eletrobr-s
54
Tractebel Energia
54
Company Profile
55
Eletrobr-s
55
Regional Overview
58
Latin America Power Regional Overview
58
Glossary
64
Table: Glossary Of Terms
64
Methodology
65
Methodology And Sources
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
68
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Brazil Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc