Brazil Power Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Brazil Power Report

BMI View: Brazil's power sector will offer abundant investment opp ortunities in the generation, transmission and distribution sectors over the next 10 years - due to its vast size , growing power needs and the government's commitment to expanding power supply through power capacity auctions . Nevertheless , the mark et's vast potential is hindered by its heavy dependence on unreliable hydropower, Brazil's deepening macroeconomic malaise and an ongoing accounting scandal affecting the country's national oil company Petrobras.

Our broadly positive growth outlook for the Brazilian power sector continues to be supported by the market's numerous strengths: its vast size - unparalleled in Latin America; its growing energy needs, coupled with remarkable conventional and renewable energy resources; and the government's use of capacity auctions to award long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to project developers. Supporting our view, investor interest in the country remains very strong across all power sources - as illustrate by the big number of projects registered for the upcoming power auctions. As such, we forecast total power capacity will grow by an annual average of 3.25% between 2015 and 2024, with hydropower and wind accounting for the biggest capacity additions.

That said, we highlight that the emergence of multiple headwinds to the development of power projects in Brazil has reinforced our view that growth in the Brazilian power sector will be constrained below its full potential over the coming years. In particular, the growing cost of financing and imported equipments for project developers will challenge the timely commissioning of power projects already contracted, particularly wind and solar. Meanwhile, Petrobras' financial struggles could create bottlenecks in natural gas supply for power generators, limiting growth in new gas-fired capacity.

At the same time, we expect Brazil's macroeconomic situation to have a negative...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Brazil Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2014-2019)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2019-2024)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
17
Table: Hydropower Projects Scheduled To Come Online By 2018
25
Electricity Consumption
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
29
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Index
35
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index
35
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
40
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Key Policies And Market Structure
44
Regulation And Competition
44
Sustainable Energy Policies
47
Pricing
48
Brazil Power Projects Database
50
Table: Brazil Major Projects Table
50
Competitive Landscape
61
Operador Nacional do Sistema El-trico (ONS)
62
Eletrobras
62
Tractebel Energia
63
Company Profile
64
Eletrobr-s
64
Regional Overview
68
Gas And Renewables To Offer Abundant Opportunities
68
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Brazil Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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