Brazil Renewables Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Renewables industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BM's Renewables Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Business Environment Rankings and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts to test other views
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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Brazil Renewables Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : With the Brazilian economy's recession expected to worsen in 2016, the country's non-hydropower renewable market is expected to experience some headwinds as project financing becomes impeded. Although auctions in 2015 showed great stability and even some minor growth in its award levels, obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain our conservative overall estimates.

Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh 56.979 60.222 65.131 71.897 77.466 82.995 87.968
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y 9.202 5.692 8.151 10.388 7.746 7.138 5.991
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW 19,072.2 20,804.4 23,498.0 26,460.7 28,898.5 30,780.7 32,623.0
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y 13.8 9.1 12.9 12.6 9.2 6.5 6.0

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.1% and 5.7%, respectively, significantly below previous levels of 2015, as the wider economic downturn worsens with negative GDP growth rates of 3.7% forecast for 2016.

  • The November 2015 auctions awarded contracts for onshore wind power projects totalling 548.2MW and solar power projects totalling 929.34MW. The first auctions of 2016 have been postponed until April 29.

  • Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Our expectations of 3.77GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at 24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 20.52GW of installed wind capacity.

  • In March 2016, German renewable energy developer SOWITEC announced plans to spend BRL2bn (USD505.5mn) on the 501MW Parque Eolico Palmas dos Ventos wind project in Sergipe state. SOWITEC plans to finalise power purchase contracts for the project by end-2016. The project will be built in three phases over five years, with construction expected to begin as early as 2017, and first supplies expected by 2020 at the earliest.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
11
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, GW, 2014 and 2024
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
22
Brazil Renewables Projects Database
23
Table: Brazil - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity, MW
23
Industry Risk/Reward Index
24
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index
24
Rewards
24
Risks
24
Market Overview
26
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
26
Targets
26
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW
27
Subsidies
27
Infrastructure
28
Competitive Landscape
30
Eletrobr-s
31
Tractebel Energia
32
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
32
Acciona
32
Impsa
33
Glossary
34
Table: Glossary Of Terms
34
Methodology
35
Methodology And Sources
35
Industry Forecast Methodology
35
Sources
37
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
37
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
39
Table: Weighting Indicators
40

The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.