BMI View : T he political turmoil surrounding the impeachment of President Rousseff is not seen to have an immediate negative impact on non-hydro renewabl es , as the interim government ' s affirmed its commitment to the sector's development . However, the country ' s worsening economic recession is expected to threaten projecting financing and could lead to delays in already contracted projects, particularly for solar power , and undermine future project pipelines . Although auctions in the past quarters showed some stability, obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain our conservative overall estimates also in this quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||57.110||66.400||71.540||79.230||84.980||90.090||94.870|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||9.450||16.270||7.740||10.750||7.260||6.010||5.300|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||19,887.2||21,718.4||24,037.1||27,079.9||29,361.0||30,723.7||32,210.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||18.6||9.2||10.7||12.7||8.4||4.6||4.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.2% and 16.3%, respectively. While capacity growth is significantly below 2015-levels, generation is increasing from last year's strong growth and the slump in domestic energy consumption levels as the wider economic downturn worsens.
Brazil's House of Representatives is currently debating a bill (4420/16) that would require large energy consumers in the country to source 20% of their total energy consumption from renewables. The proposed bill is aimed at increasing the share of non-hydro renewable and small hydropower plants. The proposal is based on environmental, energy security and economic grounds.
During the A-5 auctions of April 2016, around 198MW of biomass, almost 263MW of small hydro and 62MW of regular hydro projects were contracted - with no wind project receiving supply contracts. The auction for solar power is scheduled for July, with projects worth 9.2GW having been registered. The next auction for wind power is scheduled for October, with another A-3 and reserve auction that would include wind power currently being considered by the government to take place before end-2016 as well.
Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Our expectations of 3.34GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at 24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 19.7GW of installed wind capacity in that same year.
The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.