BMI View : With the Brazilian economy's recession expected to worsen in 2016, the country's non-hydropower renewable market is expected to experience some headwinds as project financing becomes impeded. Although auctions in 2015 showed great stability and even some minor growth in its award levels, obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain our conservative overall estimates.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||56.979||60.222||65.131||71.897||77.466||82.995||87.968|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||9.202||5.692||8.151||10.388||7.746||7.138||5.991|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||19,072.2||20,804.4||23,498.0||26,460.7||28,898.5||30,780.7||32,623.0|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||13.8||9.1||12.9||12.6||9.2||6.5||6.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.1% and 5.7%, respectively, significantly below previous levels of 2015, as the wider economic downturn worsens with negative GDP growth rates of 3.7% forecast for 2016.
The November 2015 auctions awarded contracts for onshore wind power projects totalling 548.2MW and solar power projects totalling 929.34MW. The first auctions of 2016 have been postponed until April 29.
Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Our expectations of 3.77GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at 24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 20.52GW of installed wind capacity.
In March 2016, German renewable energy developer SOWITEC announced plans to spend BRL2bn (USD505.5mn) on the 501MW Parque Eolico Palmas dos Ventos wind project in Sergipe state. SOWITEC plans to finalise power purchase contracts for the project by end-2016. The project will be built in three phases over five years, with construction expected to begin as early as 2017, and first supplies expected by 2020 at the earliest.
The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.