BMI View : The prolonged droughts and economic struggles continue to pressur e the hydropower dependent Brazilian energy sector to diversify. Although recent auctions did not bring the desired results for wind power, we expect strong growth in non-hydropower renewable energy generation and capacity as a whole over the course of 2015 and the coming years, carried also by a strong wind sector. Solar power will see the largest year-on-year growth and is expected to reach the 1GW capacity mark by 2018. Despite these positive forecasts, the economic situation with a weak r eal and increasing interest rates by the Brazilian Development Bank, BNDES, are currently undermining the investment climate.
Key Trends And Developments:
For 2015, the First Reserve Auction, scheduled for August 14, will be specifically for solar projects, with the Second Reserve Auction taking place on November 13 and will also include wind power, with winning projects to start supplying power by November 2018.
The Brazilian government announced in April 2015 that it will launch an investment fund of up to USD6.5bn to increase the production of renewable energy in the north-east of the country. The proposed fund will finance up to 8GW of wind and solar energy projects and will consist of Brazil's state-owned utility Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (Chesf) and private investors. Chesf will own a 49% stake in the fund, while private investors will own 51%. Brazilian development bank BNDES will manage the fund.
In April 2015, Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy announced plans to set up 350MW of floating solar photovoltaic panels at Balbina Dam in the Amazon. The dam was selected for the pilot project as it provides favourable conditions, with available transmission capacity and an idle substation, according to Mines and Energy Minister Eduardo Braga. The price for the generated solar power is estimated to be between BRL220 (USD67) and BRL250 (USD76.14) per MWh.
The Brazil Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Brazil. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Brazil, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Brazil, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Brazil Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazil renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazil renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Brazil, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.