BMI View: We have left our core outlook unchanged for the Bulgarian consumer electronics market in our Q2 2016 report update. Lev depreciation against the US dollar hit consumer electronics demand in Bulgaria hard in 2015 through the ero sion of household purchasing power and therefore reduce the affordability of imported hardware. We expect a recovery in 2016, albeit a limited one with growth of 1.6% forecast for the market as a whole, but with all three segments returning to growth. There will however be stronger growth over the medium term as economic conditions become more favourable, which will have a considerable impact on PC and AV sales that were hit hardest by lev depreciation. Low penetration across most device categories will allow vendors to tap into the first-time buyer and upgrade/replacement markets as incomes rise and confidence returns among households. Meanwhile, in the handset segment the growth trend will be determined to a greater extent by product adoption trends. As the smartphone market becomes more saturated, with first-time buyers accounting for a smaller share of annual sales, the overall market growth rate will slow.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Sales: USD350mn in 2016 to USD431mn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.3%. After a steep decline in 2015 we expect spending to recover 2016-2020, with underlying demand growth from low penetration rate and rising incomes boosted by deferred purchases from 2015.
AV Sales: USD171mn in 2016 to USD178mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.9%. While the AV segment is forecast to recover 2016-2020, we expect it to be the underperforming segment as TV set price erosion and digital camera volume cannibalisation act as drags on growth.
Handset Sales: USD400mn in 2016 to USD475mn in 2020, CAGR of 4.1%. Increased saturation of smartphone market will result in growth deceleration as compared to 2011-2014, but growth opportunities remain and potential for increase in premium device sales in the later years of the forecast period.
|Economic And Product Trends Drive Segment Performance|
|Bulgarian Consumer Electronics Demand By Segment|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Bulgaria.
BMI Research's Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Bulgaria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.