BMI View: We revised both historical data and our forecast for consumer e lectronics spending in the Q4 15 update. Lev depreciation against the US dollar in 2015 will erode Bulgarian household purchasing power and therefore reduce the affordability of imported hardware. We expect the handset market will be the only segment to expand in 2015, with smartphone sales growth, the greater necessity of handset ownership and the ability of vendors and retailers to absorb some of the cost increase ensuring spending continues to grow in US dollar terms. The challeng ing operating environment is expected to ease over the medium term, with all three market segments expected to return to growth in 2016 and we highlight opportunities in the smartphone, flat panel TV set and low-cost Android tablet markets 2015-2019 . Low penetration across most device categories will allow vendors to tap into the first-time buyer and upgrade/replacement markets as incomes rise and confidence returns among households.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Sales: USD418mn in 2014 to USD349mn in 2015, a decline of 16.5%. Depreciation will hit PC sales through reduced affordability, while the decline in tablet sales will be exacerbated by the drop in volumes after rapid diffusion of ownership among the core consumer group.
AV Sales: USD198mn in 2014 to USD170mn in 2015, a decline of 14.2%. After strong growth in 2014 with the FIFA World Cup in Brazil providing a boost to TV set sales, we expect a decline in 2015 as purchases are again deferred in a climate of lev depreciation.
Handset Sales: USD371mn in 2014 to USD399mn in 2015, growth of 7.5%. The smartphone market will begin to decelerate in 2015, but lev depreciation (which will hit the PC and AV segments much harder) will ensure handset segment outperformance is maintained in 2015.
| Chinese Charge Challenges Samsung's Strategy |
|Bulgaria Mobile Browsing Traffic By Vendor (%) & y-o-y chg, June 2015|
| Source: Statcounter |
The Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Bulgaria.
BMI Research's Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Bulgaria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.